Liam Duckstein
PAOK and AEK Larnaca meet in Bergen on July 7 for an International Club Friendly, with Răzvan Lucescu’s side carrying genuine momentum into what looks like a one-sided contest on paper. PAOK sit 8th in the July friendly standings with two wins from two, having scored 8 goals and conceded just 1. AEK Larnaca, ranked 146th in the world compared to PAOK’s 91st, arrive with only one friendly played so far this month, a narrow 2-1 win over Helmond. The Greek side are the clear quality edge here, and that gap in club ranking and recent form is hard to ignore.
Two players worth tracking are PAOK’s creative contributors in midfield and attack, who have been central to their 8-goal output across two friendly wins against Westerlo (4-0) and Beveren (4-1). For AEK Larnaca, their attacking threat showed up in a 4-3 win over Aris Limassol, suggesting they can produce goals, but their defensive exposure in that same game raises questions about how they will hold up against a sharper opponent.
Hot stat: PAOK have scored 8 goals in just 2 friendly matches this July, averaging 4 goals per game, while conceding only 1. That kind of output against Beveren, a side ranked inside the top 1650 clubs, signals that Lucescu has his squad firing early in pre-season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026, July Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
PAOK vs AEK Larnaca Prediction
PAOK are the obvious pick to win this match. Their 100% win rate over the last 30 days, combined with a goal difference of +7 across two July friendlies, puts them in a different class to their Cypriot opponents. AEK Larnaca’s sole July friendly was a 2-1 win over Helmond, a side ranked 15,677th globally. That result tells us very little about how they will perform against a team of PAOK’s caliber.
The form reading also favors PAOK. Their recent sequence (reading from right to left: w, w, d, w, l, d, l, l, w, d, d, d, w, w) shows a side that wins regularly at this level, while AEK Larnaca’s form (w, w, d, d, d, l, d, w, l, d, w, d, l, w, d) is considerably more inconsistent. With PAOK averaging 4 goals per game in July and AEK Larnaca showing defensive fragility in their 4-3 win over Aris Limassol, a high-scoring match with a comfortable PAOK margin is the most logical outcome.
We predict PAOK to win, and the over 2.5 goals line looks well-covered given both teams’ recent scoring patterns. AEK Larnaca have shown they can score, having netted 4 against Aris Limassol and 2 against Helmond, so both teams scoring is a reasonable expectation.
In terms of style, PAOK under Lucescu tend to press high and move the ball quickly, which typically generates corners and free kicks in the attacking third. AEK Larnaca under Javi Rozada play a more reactive style, which can lead to foul accumulation when pressed. Expect PAOK to earn several corners and set-piece opportunities, making the over on corners a sensible market to consider.
- We predict: PAOK Win
- Over 2.5 Goals looks strong based on PAOK’s 4-goals-per-game average in July
- Both Teams to Score: Yes, given AEK Larnaca’s recent attacking output
- Corners: Over 8.5, with PAOK’s pressing style generating consistent set-piece situations
| 🔥Hot Tip: | PAOK to Score in Both Halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
PAOK have been in excellent shape during the July pre-season window. Their 4-0 win over Westerlo and 4-1 victory against Beveren show a team that is already well-organized and clinical in front of goal. Beveren, rated around 1,647th globally, offered more resistance than Westerlo, yet PAOK still ran out comfortable winners. Going back slightly further in their calendar, PAOK drew 2-2 with Panathinaikos and played out back-to-back 1-1 draws against AEK Athens and Olympiacos, three of the stronger Greek top-flight sides. Those draws reflect competitive matches against quality domestic opposition, not a team low on confidence.
AEK Larnaca’s recent record is more mixed. Their 4-3 win over Aris Limassol in late June was entertaining but exposed a leaky backline. Prior to that, they drew 2-2 with Pafos and 1-1 with Omonia Nicosia before picking up a 1-0 win over Apollon Limassol. Their July outing, a 2-1 win over Helmond, was positive but came against a side ranked nearly 16,000th in the world. Coach Javi Rozada has work to do defensively, and facing a PAOK attack in this kind of form will be a significant test.
🚨Check out our dedicated PAOK vs AEK Larnaca stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: PAOK the Favourite
No bookmaker odds were provided for this match at the time of writing. Based on the available form data, club rankings, and recent scoring output, PAOK are the strong favorites. Their world ranking of 91st versus AEK Larnaca’s 146th, combined with a 100% win rate over the last 30 days and a +7 goal difference in July, makes them a very clear selection to win. We would expect PAOK moneyline odds to sit somewhere in the low-to-mid range for favorites, with AEK Larnaca likely priced as significant underdogs.
To be honest, even without published odds, the value in this match points firmly toward PAOK. Their form, squad depth, and attacking output this pre-season make them the logical selection across multiple markets.
Possible Starting Lineups
PAOK Possible Starting Eleven
With no detailed player roster data available from the last five matches, the lineup below is based on PAOK’s typical competitive setup under Răzvan Lucescu and known squad structure heading into the 2026 pre-season.
- GK: Zivko Zivkovic
- DF: Stefan Schwab, Fernando Varela, Stelios Kitsiou, Konstantinos Tzolakis
- MF: Andrija Zivkovic, Vieirinha, Lazar Randelovic, Chuba Akpom
- FW: Taison, Christos Tzolis
PAOK are likely to line up in their familiar 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 shape. Christos Tzolis is the player to watch in the wide areas, capable of driving at defenders and creating opportunities in tight spaces. Taison offers experience and directness through the center. With 8 goals in 2 games this July, the front line is clearly clicking and Lucescu will likely rotate freely while keeping the core structure intact.
AEK Larnaca Possible Starting Eleven
AEK Larnaca’s squad data is also limited, but based on their recent Cyprus-based fixtures and known squad profile under Javi Rozada, the following lineup reflects a probable selection.
- GK: Juan Pablo Ramírez
- DF: Truyols, Sherif Salisu, Marios Stylianou, Jordi Gené
- MF: Souza, Aleksandar Gojkovic, Tete
- FW: Ivan Trickovski, Dani Vega, Nestoras Mitidis
Rozada typically sets his side up in a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, with an emphasis on compact defensive blocks and quick transitions. Ivan Trickovski is the most dangerous player in their attack, a forward with pace and the ability to punish defensive lapses. If AEK Larnaca are to cause an upset or keep the scoreline respectable, Trickovski will need to be central to that effort. Their defensive unit, which conceded 3 in the Aris Limassol game, will face a stiff examination from a PAOK attack in strong pre-season form.
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PAOK. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
PAOK are the standout pick in this friendly. Two wins from two in July, 8 goals scored, 1 conceded, and a world ranking 55 places above AEK Larnaca. The Cypriot side have shown attacking intent in their recent games, which is the one factor that keeps the both-teams-to-score market alive. Their 4-3 win over Aris Limassol and 2-1 victory over Helmond suggest they will push forward, but their defensive exposure is a real concern against a PAOK side averaging 4 goals per game this pre-season.
We predict a PAOK win with goals at both ends. The over 2.5 total goals market is the best value play, and PAOK to score in both halves deserves attention as a non-typical market given how freely they have been scoring. AEK Larnaca may grab a goal, perhaps on the counter, but they are unlikely to contain a PAOK attack that has been in this kind of form.
