Liam Duckstein
A relegation fight always brings a particular kind of tension, and this Super League 1 clash between Panetolikos and AEL Larisa is no exception. Both sides find themselves with little margin for error as the season nears its end. Panetolikos sit five points above AEL Larisa, who are desperate for a first win in this phase. The outcome could well determine the final fate for both.
Key players to watch: For Panetolikos, Andreas Bouchalakis stands out, running the midfield with accurate passing and composure under pressure. AEL Larisa’s Ľubomír Tupta remains a rare bright spot in their attack, his two goals in the last five matches representing a significant chunk of their output.
Hot stat: AEL Larisa have not won a single match in their last five, drawing three and losing two, reflecting their struggle to turn performances into results.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Super League 1 2025/26, Relegation phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Panetolikos Stadium, Agrinio |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Panetolikos vs AEL Larisa prediction
We predict Panetolikos to win. Despite a poor run in the relegation phase, the hosts showed some resilience by beating Atromitos recently. Their ability to grab results at home, plus a more effective attack compared to Larisa’s struggling front line, tips the balance. Panetolikos have scored eight in seven matches during this phase, while AEL Larisa have only managed seven and have conceded more. The win probability from bookmakers is also in Panetolikos’ favor, with the best odds around 2.35.
Both teams play a fairly aggressive style. Panetolikos and AEL Larisa each picked up 14 yellow cards in their last five matches, signaling a tough, physical contest ahead. The foul count is also high—Panetolikos committed 72 fouls, Larisa 73—so expect frequent stoppages and possible disruptions to rhythm. Both teams’ passing accuracy hovers around the low 80s, but Larisa attempt more shots, suggesting they might push forward and leave themselves open. The total number of corners also favors Larisa, a factor if you’re considering set-piece threat.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw at Half Time |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Panetolikos come into this match off a spirited 2-1 victory over Atromitos. That win snapped a run of three matches without a win, with prior results including losses to Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis and a draw with Kifisia. The attack showed more variety, with multiple players getting into scoring positions. Bouchalakis remains a reliable anchor in midfield, and Juan Manuel García’s goal threat is always present when fit.
AEL Larisa’s latest game saw them manage a 1-1 draw against Asteras Tripolis. This result mirrored their recent run: too many draws, not enough wins. In fact, they have failed to secure three points in the last five. The defense gives up too many chances (twelve goals conceded in seven relegation round matches), and while Tupta and Ángelo Sagal offer some spark, the team often lacks finishing quality. Yellow cards and a high foul count underline their struggle to keep their discipline under pressure.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Panetolikos | AEL Larisa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 5 |
| Total shots | 37 | 65 |
| Free kicks | 8 | 14 |
| Corner kicks | 13 | 24 |
| Total fouls | 72 | 73 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82 | 83 |
| Interceptions | 30 | 35 |
| Offsides | 8 | 14 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Panetolikos vs AEL Larisa stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Panetolikos the favourite
- Moneyline Panetolikos 2.35 | AEL Larisa 3.22
- Draw 3.13
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.30 | Under 2.5 1.60
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.82
The odds reflect Panetolikos’ home advantage and marginally better form. AEL Larisa’s price drifts above 3.00, showing a lack of faith in their ability to end their winless streak. The draw is attractively priced, especially considering both teams’ tendency to play tight, low-scoring matches. The total goals market leans toward under 2.5, consistent with recent trends. BTTS is priced close, but Panetolikos’ attack and Larisa’s need for a result suggest both can find the net.
Possible Starting Lineups
Panetolikos possible starting eleven
- GK: Yevhenii Kucherenko
- DF: Charis Mavrias, Apostolos Apostolopoulos, Sebastien Mladen, Christos Sielis, Gustav Granath
- MF: Andreas Bouchalakis, Alexandru Măţan, Lazar Kojić, Farley Rosa
- FW: Juan Manuel García
This lineup sticks closely to Giannis Anastasiou’s preferred 5-4-1 from the last five matches. Mavrias and Granath provide width, with Bouchalakis and Kojić anchoring midfield. Măţan and Rosa add creativity. García is the focal point up front. Sielis brings composure at the back, and Kucherenko is the clear choice in goal.
AEL Larisa possible starting eleven
- GK: Theodoros Venetekidis
- DF: Theocharis Iliadis, Erick Ferigra, Dylan Batubinsika, Yvann Macon
- MF: Jani Atanasov, Davíð Kristján Ólafsson, Facundo Pérez, Goni Naor, Ľubomír Tupta
- FW: Ángelo Sagal
AEL Larisa likely line up in a 4-1-4-1, a shape Gianluca Festa has trusted. Iliadis and Macon cover the flanks, with Batubinsika a defensive rock. Atanasov controls the tempo, Ólafsson and Naor push box-to-box. Tupta is the main threat, while Sagal’s movement up front could stretch Panetolikos’ backline. Venetekidis starts in goal for his shot-stopping abilities.
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AEL Larisa. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Panetolikos to edge this relegation battle. The hosts bring more structure, their recent win suggesting revived belief. Larisa’s lack of wins and defensive vulnerabilities are hard to ignore, despite a high work rate and shot count. To be honest, Larisa may trouble the scoresheet, but Panetolikos look more likely to secure the points. Watch Bouchalakis and Tupta—they’ll dictate much of the contest’s flow.
