Liam Duckstein
The Super League 1 Championship phase concludes with a tense fixture as Panathinaikos faces PAOK at the Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium in Athens. The stakes are high: Panathinaikos have struggled for momentum in recent weeks, while PAOK aim to finish strong and secure their spot in Europe. The coaches Rafael Benítez for Panathinaikos and Răzvan Lucescu for PAOK are seasoned tacticians, both capable of surprising adjustments. This match promises drama, with both clubs under pressure to deliver after a demanding phase.
Eyes will naturally drift to Alexander Jeremejeff of PAOK, who has struck 3 goals in his last five games, and Panathinaikos’ Andrews Tetteh, who found the net in a lean attack. A hot stat stands out: PAOK attempted a staggering 62 shots in their last five games, over 1.5 times Panathinaikos’ total. Possession, intent, and attacking impetus lie clearly on the visiting side.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Super League 1 2025/26 Championship, Greece |
| 🏟 Venue: | Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Athens |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Panathinaikos vs PAOK prediction
We predict a PAOK victory. Their recent stats particularly in attack overshadow Panathinaikos, who have managed only a single goal across their last five matches. PAOK’s 7 goals, 28 corners, and high shot volume speak to a side on the front foot. Panathinaikos, in contrast, have lacked spark and struggled with both creativity and finishing. The home side’s winless run in the Championship phase and a solitary goal scored make their prospects bleak.
On style, expect a physical contest. PAOK have racked up 68 fouls and 16 yellow cards in their last five games, while Panathinaikos aren’t much cleaner, sitting at 50 fouls and 9 yellows. Ball possession should skew toward PAOK, whose pass accuracy has hovered at 77% compared to Panathinaikos’ 72%. These stats hint at a scrappy, stop-start rhythm, but PAOK’s direct play and set-piece threat look decisive.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | PAOK to win & Over 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Panathinaikos recently suffered a 0-1 defeat to Olympiacos, failing to register a single goal in their last three matches. Their attack struggled for ideas, producing only 39 shots across five fixtures. The midfield lacked punch, and the defense buckled under pressure. Rafael Benítez’s side have now gone five games without a win in the Championship phase, falling to the bottom of the table. Their last positive result was a 0-0 draw against AEK Athens, but the inability to convert chances or apply sustained pressure continues to haunt them.
PAOK drew 1-1 with AEK Athens in their last outing a fixture that showcased their attacking intent, with 7 goals and 62 total shots over their last five matches. PAOK’s approach remains aggressive, with Jeremejeff and Živković frequently testing opposing defenses. Although their defense can be penetrated (6 goals conceded in the last five), their transition play and width generate a torrent of opportunities. The team blends direct attacks with technical midfield combinations. Răzvan Lucescu’s men, despite a rocky phase, carry much more threat than their hosts.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Panathinaikos | PAOK |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 39 | 62 |
| Corner kicks | 6 | 28 |
| Total fouls | 50 | 68 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 72 | 77 |
| Interceptions | 39 | 28 |
| Offsides | 3 | 9 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Panathinaikos vs PAOK stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: PAOK the favourite
- Moneyline Panathinaikos 3.61 | PAOK 1.94
- Draw 3.64
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.30 | Under 2.5 1.55
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.65
Bookmakers view PAOK as the clear favorite, offering odds around 1.94 for an away win compared to 3.61 for Panathinaikos at home. The draw sits at 3.64, reflecting the hosts’ recent struggles to score. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.30, and the data supports this, given PAOK’s attacking output. Both teams to score seems less likely, with Panathinaikos’ blunt offense and PAOK’s defensive discipline; “No” is a shorter price at 1.65. We side with the bookies PAOK have more momentum and attacking threat.
Possible Starting Lineups
Panathinaikos possible starting eleven
- GK: Alban Lafont
- DF: Giorgos Kyriakopoulos, Davide Calabria, Erik Palmer-Brown, Ahmed Touba
- MF: Adam Gnezda Čerin, Pedro Chirivella, Vicente Taborda, Anastasios Bakasetas, Santino Andino
- FW: Andrews Tetteh
Lafont starts in goal, with a back four that brings experience and passing ability. Kyriakopoulos and Calabria provide width, while Palmer-Brown and Touba anchor centrally. The midfield blends technical skill and work rate, as Čerin and Chirivella aim to control possession. Taborda and Bakasetas offer support behind Tetteh, who leads the line. The 4-2-3-1 should remain in place, but the lack of goalscoring form across the attack is worrying. Watch for Tetteh’s movement and Bakasetas’ late runs.
PAOK possible starting eleven
- GK: Jiří Pavlenka
- DF: Tomasz Kędziora, Abdul Baba Rahman, Giannis Michailidis, Jonjoe Kenny
- MF: Magomed Ozdoev, Giannis Konstantelias, Christos Zafeiris, Alessandro Bianco
- FW: Andrija Živković, Alexander Jeremejeff
PAOK should opt for their 4-4-2, with Pavlenka in goal. The defense features pace and aggression, and Michailidis is a threat on set pieces. The midfield quartet covers ground and can dictate play, with Konstantelias and Zafeiris often pushing forward. Up front, Jeremejeff is the main danger three goals in five matches supported by Živković’s creativity. The tactical setup encourages quick transitions and heavy pressing. Jeremejeff is the one to watch for goals.
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PAOK. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict PAOK to take the win, building on their superior attack and recent record. The statistics from both teams’ last five matches tell the story PAOK’s firepower, set-piece threat, and high-volume shooting should overwhelm a Panathinaikos team bereft of confidence. Unless Panathinaikos find inspiration up front, expect the visitors to control the match. The safest bet remains PAOK to win, but backing a high-scoring away performance has real value.
