Pafos vs Hajduk Split Prediction: 30 July 2026 UEFA Europa League

Pafos host Hajduk Split at the Alphamega Stadium in Limassol on 30 July in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League Second Qualifying Round tie. The Croatian side already holds a 2-0 lead from the first leg, putting Pafos in a position where they need to score at least twice without reply just to force extra time. That is a tall order for a team that has failed to score in three of their last five matches. Hajduk’s left back Mathieu Acapandie has registered three assists in four recent matches and will be a constant threat going forward, while Pafos midfielder Vlad Dragomir will need to be at his best if the Cypriot side is to generate any real attacking momentum.

The hot stat here belongs to Hajduk Split: the Croatian club has scored seven goals across their last five matches, accumulating 34 total shots and 26 corner kicks in that same period. For context, Pafos managed zero goals and only 14 corners over those same five games.

Pafos vs Hajduk Split Prediction

Hajduk Split enter this second leg with a 2-0 cushion and have been the far more consistent side in recent weeks. They have won four of their last five matches and carry genuine quality in attack. Pafos, under Ricardo Sá Pinto, have looked fragile going forward, scoring just twice in their last five outings and losing three of them.

The aggregate scoreline makes this effectively a must-win situation for Pafos. We predict Hajduk Split to advance comfortably. The visitors are unlikely to sit deep and absorb pressure; Gonzalo García’s side has shown an appetite to press and punish teams on transitions. Pafos will need to attack, and that creates space Hajduk can exploit.

Pafos committed zero recorded fouls in the last five match data and picked up four yellow cards, suggesting some indiscipline when under pressure. Hajduk collected ten yellow cards in five matches, indicating a physical and combative style. That physicality, combined with their superior attacking output of 34 shots in five games compared to Pafos’s 28, points strongly toward Hajduk dictating the tempo. We predict Hajduk Split to win this match and progress on aggregate.

Team Analysis

Pafos have had a difficult run of form heading into this second leg. They lost three of their last five matches and have been shut out in multiple recent games. In their most recent outing before the first leg, they fell 3-2 to Slovan Bratislava in a game where they conceded late. Before that, they were beaten 1-0 by Jagiellonia and drew 0-0 with Jablonec. The only bright spot was a 2-1 win over Cracovia, but that came against a side ranked well outside the top 800 clubs globally. The pattern is one of inconsistency and a lack of clean attacking play at the higher level.

Hajduk Split suffered a 1-2 defeat to Žilina in their most recent league outing, but that result should not mask how well they have performed across the broader stretch. They beat Žilina 2-0 in the reverse fixture just days prior, defeated Celje 1-0 and LNZ 1-0 in back-to-back wins, and then opened the Europa League qualifying campaign with a composed 2-0 win over Pafos in the first leg. Four wins from their last five competitive matches speaks to a squad that knows how to grind out results. Defender Dario Melnjak has scored twice in four recent appearances, an unusually productive return from the backline that adds a dimension Pafos may not account for.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

These two sides have only met in this qualifying tie, with Hajduk taking the first leg 2-0 at home. The second leg at the Alphamega Stadium is the first time Pafos host Hajduk in a competitive fixture.

🚨Check out our dedicated Pafos vs Hajduk Split stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Pafos the Favourite

• Moneyline Pafos 1.77 | Hajduk Split 4.00
• Draw 3.83
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —

The bookmakers make Pafos favourites for the individual match, which makes sense given they are the home side and need to chase the game. To be honest, this is a case where the single-match odds are somewhat misleading. Hajduk at 4.00 represents real value when you factor in how poor Pafos have been in attack and how well the Croatian side has defended. A Hajduk win on the night at those odds is worth considering seriously alongside the qualification market.

Possible Starting Lineups

Pafos Possible Starting Eleven

Sá Pinto is likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, the formation Pafos have used consistently across their last five matches. Radosław Majecki takes the gloves having featured in two of the most recent games. David Luiz and Samy Mmaee form the central defensive partnership, both logging full 180 minutes recently. Vlad Dragomir and Ivan Šunjić anchor the midfield, and Jaja leads the line. Gabriel Teixeira Aragao offers width and direct running. Nicholas Ioannou and Alexandre Brito are worth watching closely given they both carry yellow cards from recent games, adding a disciplinary risk in a match where Pafos cannot afford to go down to ten men.

Hajduk Split Possible Starting Eleven

Gonzalo García will almost certainly stick with the 4-3-3 that has served Hajduk well. Toni Silic is the clear first-choice goalkeeper, having started all four recent matches. Mathieu Acapandie at left back is the creative engine with three assists in four games, and he deserves special attention. Michele Šego and Roko Brajkovic both carry goals and assists between them, making the front three genuinely dangerous. Adrion Pajaziti and Simun Hrgovic carry two yellow cards each, so García may manage their game time carefully if the tie is already secured early.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Hajduk Split are the better side on every measurable metric heading into this second leg. They have scored seven goals in five matches, generated 34 shots, earned 26 corners, and already hold a two-goal aggregate advantage. Pafos have scored zero goals across the same five-game window and have looked toothless against quality opposition.

We predict Hajduk Split to win this match. A scoreline of 1-2 or 0-2 in favour of the Croatian side feels realistic, with Mathieu Acapandie and Michele Šego the most likely contributors. Pafos may find a goal given they are pushing forward from the first whistle, which supports the both-teams-to-score market, but Hajduk have the composure and the personnel to see this tie out. Over 2.5 total goals also looks well-supported given the attacking intent both sides will bring, albeit for very different reasons.

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