Paderborn vs Stuttgart Prediction: 28.10.2026 DFB Pokal 2026/27

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Paderborn welcome Stuttgart to the Home Deluxe Arena for a Round 2 cup tie that, on paper, looks like a mismatch. Funny thing is, these two met less than three weeks ago in the Bundesliga, and Stuttgart won that one comfortably too. Ralf Kettemann’s side gets a quick shot at revenge, this time with cup magic as the only real card left to play.

Stuttgart arrive as heavy favourites, and honestly the numbers back that up almost entirely. Paderborn will need something close to a perfect night defensively, because Sebastian Hoeneß has built a squad that creates chances in bunches.

Watch Steffen Tigges for Paderborn. He has a goal and an assist across his last four appearances and tends to drift into dangerous pockets when his side sits deep and counters. On the other side, Ermedin Demirović has been Stuttgart’s sharpest finisher lately, three goals in six games off nineteen shots, and he loves a mismatch like this one.

Hot stat: Stuttgart have outscored Paderborn 10-3 across their respective last five matches, and the shot count tells the same story, 109 attempts for Stuttgart against just 75 for Paderborn. That gap is hard to ignore.

Paderborn vs Stuttgart prediction

We think Stuttgart win this one, and probably not by a single goal. Their possession control and shot volume over the last five games dwarf what Paderborn has produced, and the head-to-head from earlier this month, a 2-0 away win for Stuttgart, suggests this gap is not a one-off.

Paderborn do have an edge in discipline. They have picked up just four yellow cards across their last five matches compared to Stuttgart’s six, and they commit noticeably fewer fouls too, 46 against 70. That lower foul count hints at a side happy to sit off and let Stuttgart come at them, which could keep this competitive for spells even if the final result leans heavily toward the visitors.

Stuttgart’s pass accuracy sits comfortably above 85 percent across their last five outings, while Paderborn hover closer to 82 percent. Combine that with Stuttgart’s corner count, 42 compared to Paderborn’s 23 over the same stretch, and the pressure Paderborn will face for ninety minutes becomes pretty clear.

Team Analysis

Paderborn’s most recent result was a 1-0 win over Hamburger SV, a result that snapped a run of mixed form. Before that they drew 2-2 with Werder Bremen and lost 0-2 to this very Stuttgart side. Looking back five games, Paderborn have three wins, a draw and that one loss, a decent run on paper but mostly built against opponents ranked well below Stuttgart’s level. In our preview of Paderborn vs Hamburger SV we leaned toward Hamburg avoiding defeat and goals at both ends, and the 1-0 scoreline went against that call, Paderborn shut Hamburg out instead.

Stuttgart’s last outing was rougher, a 2-3 home loss to Borussia Monchengladbach that snapped their own momentum. Before that they drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid and lost 0-1 to Hamburger SV, a stretch that shows this squad can be got at defensively even against clubs they should beat. Going back five games Stuttgart still have more wins than losses, but the dip is real. In our preview of Stuttgart vs Borussia Monchengladbach we backed a Stuttgart win alongside over 2.5 goals, and while the game did finish with five goals, Stuttgart lost 2-3, so that main call missed.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Paderborn vs Stuttgart stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Stuttgart the favourite

• Moneyline Paderborn 5.30 | Stuttgart 1.51
• Draw 4.30

The market barely gives Paderborn a sniff here, with implied probability sitting around 17 percent against Stuttgart’s 61. That lines up with everything the recent stats show, better shot numbers, better pass accuracy, and a recent head-to-head win for Stuttgart. Cup games can throw up surprises, sure, but the price gap feels fair given the squad quality on show.

Possible Starting Lineups

Paderborn possible starting eleven

Kettemann has stuck with a back three and five-man midfield across his last few games, and there is little reason to change it against a side like Stuttgart. Tigges and Marino both carry a goal involvement from their recent minutes, and they will need every bit of it up top. Expect the 3-5-2 shape to sit deeper than usual here, banking on quick transitions.

Stuttgart possible starting eleven

Hoeneß tends to run the 3-4-2-1 with Stiller dictating tempo from deep, he already has five assists over his last six appearances. Führich and Leweling rotate behind Demirović, giving Stuttgart width and movement that Paderborn’s back three will struggle to track for a full ninety minutes.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We’re siding with Stuttgart to win, and we think over 2.5 goals is the smarter total given how often they have hit the net lately. Demirović looks the standout pick for an anytime goal. Paderborn’s recent discipline and lower foul count might keep the scoreline from getting embarrassing, but the gap in quality, shots and recent head-to-head form all point the same direction. Maybe Paderborn nick a goal on the counter, but we doubt it changes the result.

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