Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Copa Del Rey Match - 18.12.2025

The Campo de Oira in Ourense is set to host a classic David vs. Goliath showdown as Ourense CF faces Athletic Bilbao in the Round of 32 of the Copa Del Rey 2025/26. The match kicks off at 20:00 CEST on 18 December 2025, promising an intense evening under the Spanish lights. While Athletic Bilbao comes in as the overwhelming favorite, Ourense CF will be fiercely determined to make their mark against one of the most storied clubs in Spanish football. The historical significance of Copa Del Rey nights, with their capacity for shocks, adds an extra layer of anticipation to this fixture.

For Athletic Bilbao, the spotlight falls on Nicolás Williams, whose pace and direct attacking play have troubled La Liga defenses all season. Meanwhile, Ourense CF’s Marco Camús, with his recent energetic performances in the forward line, could be the spark the underdogs need.
The “hot stat” from the lead-up: Athletic Bilbao registered a commanding 77 total fouls in just their last 5 matches—a testament to their combative edge but also a potential vulnerability if discipline wavers.

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Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao predictions

My best bet: Athletic Bilbao to win & Over 2.5 goals. This selection is based on clear disparities in squad depth, recent form, and the Basque side’s technical superiority. Ourense CF, while impressive in attack lately (12 goals in their last 5 matches), faces an uncompromising opponent whose experience in cup scenarios often proves decisive. Athletic’s attacking trio—Nico Williams, Gorka Guruzeta, and Alex Berenguer—should have the quality to break down the hosts’ spirited but untested defense, especially considering Ourense’s recent struggles to maintain clean sheets.

Tactically, expect Ourense CF’s 4-4-2 setup to prioritize compactness and counter-attacks, but their average possession and passing numbers (49 percent pass accuracy in the last 5 matches) may cede the midfield battle. High foul counts (15 in last 5) and moderate yellow card accumulation highlight a physically resilient but occasionally rash side.
Bilbao, with more possession-oriented metrics (just under 80 percent pass accuracy), employ the 4-2-3-1 with overlapping fullbacks and intense counter-pressing. Their own foul tally (77 in last 5) speaks to physicality, but this could open up the match to set-piece chaos—exploited best by well-drilled teams.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao Most recent H2Hs

Although there is limited direct recent head-to-head data, these aggregated stats from each team’s last five games highlight a contrasting story: Ourense CF has found the net often, particularly against similarly ranked sides, suggesting offensive energy. However, their defensive metrics and lower pass accuracy underline potential issues when tackling a more technically adept Athletic side. Bilbao’s recent run against high-caliber teams demonstrates resilience under pressure, even if goals have been limited recently.

🚨Read our full Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Athletic Bilbao averages 12 fouls per match this season, intensifying in cup situations.
• Ourense CF has scored in each of their last six matches at Campo de Oira.
• Nico Williams has contributed directly to 3 goals in his last 4 Copa Del Rey appearances.
• Bilbao has hit Over 2.5 total goals in 5 of their last 7 Copa del Rey road matches.
• Ourense comes off a thrilling 4-3 win in their previous cup outing, underlining attacking intent but defensive frailty.

Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao score prediction: 1-3

Expect Athletic Bilbao’s technical polish and squad experience to tip the balance. Ourense will look to crowd the box and threaten on the break—Camús and Vázquez are the likeliest threats in transition—but sustained pressure should ultimately pay off for the visitors. Gorka Guruzeta, with his aerial prowess, and Nico Williams’s direct runs may unlock a stubborn home defense, while Alex Berenguer adds an unorthodox threat from the flanks. Nonetheless, the passion and belief on display should see Ourense crack through for a goal, rewarding the home support’s faith.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite

Bookmakers overwhelmingly expect Athletic Bilbao to prevail. The price on the visitors reflects their clear upper hand in quality and cup know-how. Strong value can be found in goals markets—Ourense’s attack has flair, and Bilbao has the firepower to punish any missed assignments. The Over 2.5 and Both Teams To Score lines appeal due to defensive questions on both sides. Draw odds are tempting only if you foresee Bilbao’s attack faltering amidst a resolute home effort—an unlikely scenario given squad depth.

Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao Over/Under Analysis

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in 4 of Ourense’s last 5 games across all competitions.
• Bilbao has kept just one clean sheet in their last 5 away Cup matches.
• Ourense’s open style lends itself to high shot and corner counts.
• Both teams average more than 5 corners per match over the last month.
• Cup upsets occasionally occur, but statistics signal attacking action is the likeliest story.

Ourense CF Preview

Ourense CF arrives on a confident note, riding a 67 percent win rate in the last month and back-to-back high-scoring fixtures. Their 4-3 win over Unionistas showcased both their attacking variety and defensive frailty, while another spirited effort saw them edge Girona 2-1. Most recently, a 2-2 draw with Barakaldo reinforced their attacking depth but highlighted the pressing need for defensive organization—surrendering multiple leads has been a recurring theme. Coach Daniel Llácer’s attacking philosophy breeds entertainment, but against elite opposition, the balance between risk and reward grows precarious.

Ourense CF possible starting eleven

Athletic Bilbao Preview

Athletic Bilbao’s cup pedigree is well established and gives them a psychological edge here. Their most recent results include a stalemate with European power PSG (0-0), a gritty 1-0 victory over Atlético Madrid, and a surprising 0-2 home reverse against Celta Vigo. Athletic’s defensive backbone, marshaled by Unai Simón and Daniel Vivian, will underpin a patient but aggressive approach. The attacking impetus flows through Nico Williams and Gorka Guruzeta, with support from an industrious midfield trio. Disciplinary issues—reflected in the 77 fouls over five matches—will be closely monitored, but manager Ernesto Valverde’s experience is a steadying factor in navigating Copa potential pitfalls.

Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

The TipsGG expert team predicts a 3-1 win for Athletic Bilbao, with a 68 percent winning probability calculated by our proprietary AI prediction engine. Expect early resistance from Ourense, but Bilbao’s tactical organization and class in the attacking third should prove decisive. Value may be found in goal-heavy markets, but an outright Athletic win remains the optimal selection for punters seeking stability. The magic of the Cup always leaves a window for surprises, but form and history are firmly in the visitors’ court.

How to watch Ourense CF vs Athletic Bilbao

• When? Kick-off at 20:00 CEST, December 18, 2025
• Where? Campo de Oira, Ourense
• How to watch: Via major Spanish broadcasters and online streaming on official Copa Del Rey partner platforms
• Favorite: Athletic Bilbao

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