Osijek vs Slaven Belupo Prediction: 20.12.2025 1. HNL Preview

The 1. HNL regular season continues as Osijek welcome Slaven Belupo to the Opus Arena in a matchup that quietly simmers with significance. While Osijek finds themselves scrambling for momentum and consistency at the foot of the table, Slaven Belupo are mounting an ambitious push in the upper half, currently sitting third. What makes this encounter particularly intriguing is not just the teams’ contrasting fortunes, but also their tendency to produce fiercely competitive encounters—four of the last seven head-to-heads ended with both teams scoring at least twice. For Osijek, it is not just about survival, but a chance to stem a long run of winless form, while Slaven Belupo can stamp their credentials as a contender for European qualification. All the elements of a high-stakes winter tussle are here.

Both lineups feature players who can shift the balance in an instant. Slaven Belupo’s Adriano Jagusic, riding a three-goal hot streak across his last four starts, has become the engine of Gregurina’s attack, and his ability to burst from midfield will be a constant threat. Meanwhile, Osijek’s own creative pillar, Hrvoje Babec, remains central to their hopes, producing key passes and the vital ability to break lines even when results have eluded the team as a whole.

Hot stat: Osijek’s last five league matches have ended in draws or defeats, but notably, they have scored in each of their last five, despite a sub-30% win rate this year. This suggests resilience and attacking potential even amid a torrid run of form.

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Osijek vs Slaven Belupo prediction

The data points toward a fiercely contested contest likely to be decided by fine margins. Osijek, despite their current winless drought (0 wins in five), have displayed attacking intent: they have scored in every one of their last five matches (6 goals total) and outshot their opponents in several. However, defensive vulnerability persists—just one clean sheet in their last ten. Slaven Belupo arrive in superior form, with two wins and only one loss in five, and their robust away record hints at a pragmatic approach that absorbs pressure and strikes decisively, particularly through midfield leaders like Jagusic and Nestorovski.

In terms of playing style, Osijek average just over two yellow cards per match and win more set-pieces (27 corners in last five), but their defensive lines have been porous. Slaven Belupo commit fewer fouls yet are more clinical in transition, with higher pass accuracy (over 80% in last five) and a more balanced spread of goals (nine in last five).

Given these trends, the best value is found in supporting Slaven Belupo with a +0 (Draw No Bet) handicap, capitalizing on their form, Osijek’s low confidence, and the visitors’ statistical edge in both recent goal output and defensive stability.

Team Analysis

Osijek: Reviewing Osijek’s last five, it’s a tale of grit interspersed with defensive lapses. Their 1-1 draw with Gorica epitomized recent struggles: going ahead early but unable to close out, and conceding late on. That was preceded by a dispiriting 1-5 collapse against Istra 1961, underscoring both the frailty at the back and the danger when Osijek are forced to chase a match. While Sopic’s 4-2-3-1 shape promises creative options, players like Babec and Omerovic are spending more time containing than dictating, and the attack is overly dependent on moments of individual inspiration. Four draws in five does show there is no lack of fight, but the side has looked low on confidence and short on ruthlessness.

Slaven Belupo: Gregurina’s side, fresh off a rollicking 2-5 contest against Dinamo Zagreb, have oscillated between battling performances and moments of brilliance up front. Victories over Gorica (2-1) and Vukovar (4-1) showcase a side capable of clinical finishing—Jagusic in particular thriving on quick interchanges with Nestorovski and supporting runners like Cubelic. The 1-1 against Istra 1961 highlighted defensive resilience but also a will to push forward even away from home. The notable flip side is their five conceded against Dinamo, suggesting some vulnerability to teams able to stretch their shape, but against lower-table sides, Slaven have found ways to both absorb and punish.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Osijek vs Slaven Belupo stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Osijek the favourite

• Moneyline Osijek 2.46 | Slaven Belupo 2.82
• Draw 3.25
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.70
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 2.00

While Osijek are rated narrowly as favourites by most bookmakers based on historical home strength and table weighting, the form line says otherwise. Slaven Belupo’s higher win ratio this year (51% vs Osijek’s 30%) and their more consistent scoring rate hint the market is overlooking current dynamics. The value is on Slaven with their in-form attackers against an Osijek defense that has struggled, making the Draw No Bet and Over 2.5 worthy considerations. The even BTTS odds reflect both teams’ attacking tenacity and defensive shakiness.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Osijek possible starting eleven

• GK: Marko Malenica
• DF: Renan Guedes, Styopa Mkrtchyan, Luka Jelenic, David Čolina
• MF: Hrvoje Babec, Vedran Jugović, Nail Omerovic
• FW: Anton Matkovic, Arnel Jakupović, Domagoj Bukvic

Expect Sopic to persist with his preferred 4-2-3-1. Malenica has been a steadying presence in goal, while Guedes and Mkrtchyan anchor a defense under pressure. Babec and Jugović provide cover and distribution in midfield, with Omerovic asked to link transitions. Going forward, Jakupović’s blend of strength and technical ability pairs well with Matkovic’s movement and Bukvic’s presence on the flank. Watch Babec for set-piece delivery and Jakupović for any scrappy half-chances inside the box.

Slaven Belupo possible starting eleven

• GK: Ivan Čović
• DF: Filip Kruselj, Tomislav Božić, Dominik Kovačić, Leonard Žuta
• MF: Adriano Jagusic, Ivan Cubelic, Ljuban Crepulja
• FW: Ilija Nestorovski, Ante Suto, Josip Mitrović

Belupo should line up 4-3-3, with Čović holding the fort behind a defense marshalled by Božić and Žuta. The midfield three of Jagusic, Cubelic, and Crepulja combines energy, creativity, and ball-winning. Up top, Nestorovski and Suto provide width and workrate, with Mitrović the poacher. The interchanges between Jagusic and Cubelic have underpinned recent goalscoring outbursts and will be key again here.

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My take on the Match

This is a perfect storm for a closely fought contest, but momentum and form side with Slaven Belupo. Osijek, while persistent and motivated by the home crowd, simply do not possess the defensive solidity to keep in-form visitors off the scoresheet. While Osijek are always capable of a moment of magic—especially through Babec or Jakupović—Belupo’s tactical flexibility and energy across the lines suggest they will edge key battles in midfield and take advantage of any slip. My main pick: Slaven Belupo Draw No Bet, with both teams likely to score and the over 2.5 a strong second option. Expect a dynamic, high-tempo fixture that rewards bold attacking play.

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