Sofia Quijada
Osasuna hosts Atletico Madrid at Estadio El Sadar in a contest between two sides needing points for their contrasting ambitions. Osasuna sits mid-table, aiming to finish the season on a high, while Atletico Madrid still holds a top-four spot and seeks to reinforce Champions League qualification. Raul García and Alexander Sørloth are the men to watch—both in good scoring rhythm for their teams, each netting twice in their last five. Both squads deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, meaning the midfield battle will be intense. The “hot stat”: Atletico Madrid has fired 73 shots in their last five matches, over 48% more than Osasuna. That attacking intent could decide the match.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:30 CEST |
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid prediction
We predict a tight contest, but the best value lies in the “Both Teams To Score: Yes” market. Both sides have scored six goals in their last five matches, showing offensive ability but without the defensive consistency to keep clean sheets. Osasuna’s home resilience pairs with Atletico’s higher shot count and attacking urgency. The TipsGG punters rate a draw or narrow away win as possible, but both teams finding the net stands out as the most statistically supported outcome.
Osasuna plays a compact, sometimes physical game: 58 fouls and 9 yellow cards in their last five matches highlight their readiness for gritty battles, but also some vulnerability to bookings. Atletico Madrid’s 51 fouls and 7 yellows show only slightly more discipline, but they bring more technical passing (2,432 passes, 85.5% accuracy) and offensive pressure (73 shots). Expect a game of interruptions, with midfield tussles and several cards, but plenty of chances at both ends.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 4.5 cards |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Osasuna’s latest games show inconsistency: a 2-3 home defeat to Levante followed a competitive loss to Barcelona and a narrow win over Sevilla. The attack led by Raul García and Ante Budimir creates chances, but defensive errors cost them points. Their 1-1 draw against Real Betis and another home loss to Athletic Bilbao underline their current vulnerability at the back. The team shows some fighting spirit, but lacks control in closing out tight matches.
Atletico Madrid’s form also raises concerns. They lost 0-1 to Celta Vigo last time out, after a 0-1 home defeat to Arsenal in the Champions League. Scoring remains an issue, with only six goals in their last five. The 2-0 win against Valencia and a thrilling 3-2 against Athletic Bilbao show their potential, but inconsistency and defensive lapses have led to six losses in their last nine games.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Osasuna | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
| Total shots | 49 | 73 |
| Free kicks | 8 | 10 |
| Corner kicks | 18 | 28 |
| Total fouls | 58 | 51 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 80% | 85.5% |
| Interceptions | 35 | 55 |
| Offsides | 8 | 10 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Osasuna the favourite
- Moneyline Osasuna 2.54 | Atletico Madrid 2.85
- Draw 3.70
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.40 | Under 2.5 1.53
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.88 | No 1.92
The odds suggest a near coin-flip, with a slight edge to Osasuna at home, but not by much. The draw is well-priced, reflecting both teams’ struggles for consistency. The Over 2.5 line at 2.40 is attractive, given each side’s recent goal output and defensive frailty. BTTS Yes is offered at fair value. We predict BTTS Yes is the market with the best edge, given both teams’ recent trends and the open nature of their play.
Possible Starting Lineups
Osasuna possible starting eleven
- GK: Sergio Herrera
- DF: Valentin Rosier, Alejandro Catena, Enzo Boyomo, Javi Galán
- MF: Jon Moncayola, Lucas Torró, Moi Gómez, Aimar Oroz
- FW: Raul García, Ante Budimir
Sergio Herrera keeps his place in goal. Defensively, Rosier, Catena, Boyomo, and Galán offer experience and reliability. The midfield likely features Moncayola and Torró anchoring, with Gómez and Oroz providing creativity. Up front, Raul García and Ante Budimir lead the line. This XI matches their recent 4-2-3-1 shape. Watch out for Budimir’s movement in the box and Catena’s set-piece threat.
Atletico Madrid possible starting eleven
- GK: Jan Oblak
- DF: Marc Pubill, Robin Le Normand, Clément Lenglet, Marcos Llorente
- MF: Koke, Matteo Ruggeri, Nahuel Molina, Johnny Cardoso
- FW: Alexander Sørloth, Antoine Griezmann
Jan Oblak stays in goal. Pubill, Le Normand, Lenglet, and Llorente form the defensive line. Koke and Ruggeri control the center, Molina and Cardoso offer width and transition. Griezmann and Sørloth lead the attack, both with recent goals and assists. The 4-2-3-1 gives them width and creative options. Sørloth’s physicality and Griezmann’s off-ball runs could trouble Osasuna’s backline.
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Osasuna. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a high-intensity contest, with both teams scoring. Osasuna’s home form and physical midfield can disrupt Atletico, but the visitors’ attacking stats and higher shot output give them a good chance to find the net. The best value play is “Both Teams To Score: Yes” at current odds, with a possible 1-1 or 2-2 outcome. Expect cards and corners to feature, with neither team likely to keep a clean sheet based on recent defensive displays.
