Rafael Nogueira
Two mid-table sides separated by goal difference alone meet at Estadio Germano Kruger on Sunday, with both Operario PR and Novorizontino sitting on 16 points in the Série B standings. Operario hold 11th place due to an inferior goal difference of -2 against Novorizontino’s +5, making this a direct six-pointer for positioning in the upper half of the table.
Operario’s Gabriel Boschilia has been one of the more active creators in their recent setup, logging 41 passes and three shots in their last outing, while Novorizontino’s Luís Oyama brings both defensive discipline and attacking contribution, having scored in their most recent match against Atletico Goianiense. Novorizontino striker Robson also grabbed a goal and an assist in that same game, combining well with Oyama to dismantle a struggling opponent 3-0.
Hot stat: Novorizontino scored 3 goals against Atletico Goianiense in their last match, while Operario have conceded 11 goals in their last five recorded fixtures, including a 2-6 defeat to Nautico.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Germano Kruger, Ponta Grossa |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Operario PR vs Novorizontino Prediction
Novorizontino enter this match with a better goal difference, more consistent recent form, and a sharper attacking output. Their 3-0 win over Atletico Goianiense was commanding, and across their last five matches they averaged 14 total shots per game compared to Operario’s 11. Operario’s defensive record is a concern: they conceded 14 goals across their last five matches. Novorizontino’s pass accuracy sits at 240 completed passes per game versus Operario’s 307, but the quality of opponents faced differs. We predict Novorizontino to win this match, with the away side’s firepower capable of punishing Operario’s leaky backline.
Operario average 13 fouls per match in their last five outings, slightly above Novorizontino’s 12, suggesting a physical approach from both sides. Neither team has scored directly from free kicks in recent games, so set-piece danger is moderate. Operario’s pass accuracy percentage (307 completed from their recorded attempts) points to a more direct style, while Novorizontino commit fewer interceptions (5 vs Operario’s 8), indicating they defend with a more compact shape rather than pressing aggressively. Corners have been fairly evenly distributed, with Operario averaging 6 and Novorizontino 5 per game, pointing to a reasonable corner market.
- We predict Novorizontino to win (Away Win)
- Over 2.5 goals is a reasonable secondary option given Operario’s defensive fragility
- Both Teams to Score: Yes, given Operario’s home threat and Novorizontino’s attacking consistency
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Novorizontino to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Operario PR picked up a narrow 1-0 win over Athletic Club in their most recent match, which was their only game in the last 30 days. Before that, their form was poor: a 1-1 draw with Criciuma, a damaging 2-6 loss to Nautico, a 1-2 defeat to Fluminense RJ, and a 0-3 loss to CRB. Four defeats in five matches before the Athletic Club win does not inspire confidence, and the squad’s overall figures this year show 13 wins from 34 matches, a 38% win rate. Coach Luizinho Lopes has steadied the ship slightly, but the defensive problems remain. Operario have conceded in four of their last five matches and have not kept consecutive clean sheets in recent memory.
Novorizontino arrive in better shape. Their last match was a convincing 3-0 victory over Atletico Goianiense, with Robson and Oyama the standout performers. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Chapecoense, beat Ceara 2-1, lost 0-2 to Chapecoense, and drew 0-0 with Cuiaba. The form sequence shows a team capable of strong individual performances but occasionally inconsistent. Their year-to-date record of 14 wins from 33 matches (42% win rate) edges past Operario’s, and their goal difference of +5 from 10 league games played tells a positive story. Enderson Moreira’s side have scored in three of their last four games and conceded zero in the most recent fixture.
🚨Check out our dedicated Operario PR vs Novorizontino stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Evenly Matched Contest
- Moneyline Operario PR 2.50 | Novorizontino 2.90
- Draw 3.05
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers’ implied probability sits at 38% for Operario, 31% for the draw, and 32% for Novorizontino, making this one of the tighter markets in the division this round. Novorizontino at around 2.88-3.01 across major books represents fair value given their superior form and goal difference. Pinnacle, generally the sharpest book, prices Novorizontino at 3.01, slightly longer than the average, which makes the away win an attractive option. The draw at 3.05-3.10 carries appeal too, given the balanced head-to-head record, but Operario’s defensive issues make a clean draw less likely than it might appear.
Possible Starting Lineups
Operario PR Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Vagner
- DF: Gabriel Feliciano da Silva, Miranda, Matheus Trindade, Jose Abad Cuenu Rodriguez
- MF: Mikael Doka, Vinícius Diniz Dall Antonia, Gabriel Boschilia, Charles Raphael de Almeida
- FW: Pablo Felipe, Hildeberto Pereira
Operario have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 shape in recent matches, with Vagner as the first-choice goalkeeper. The back four selects itself based on playing time data, with Miranda and Gabriel Feliciano da Silva holding the central positions. Gabriel Boschilia is the key creative force in midfield, recording the highest pass volume and shot count from midfield in their last outing. Pablo Felipe leads the line and carries a direct threat with three shots logged in the most recent game. Hildeberto Pereira provides support from a wide forward role.
Novorizontino Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jordi
- DF: Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas, Nilson Castrillón, Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho, Alexis Alvarino
- MF: Luís Oyama, Leonardo Naldi de Matos, Juninho, Matheus Henrique Bianqui
- FW: Robson, Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito
Novorizontino also deploy a 4-2-3-1 structure under Enderson Moreira. Jordi starts in goal with 90 minutes played in the last fixture. The defensive line is anchored by Nilson Castrillón, who logged 31 passes and 90 minutes, and Patrick Marcos, who contributed an interception and consistent positioning. Luís Oyama is the standout name to watch, combining a goal, 30 passes, and strong defensive work rate. Robson, with a goal and an assist in the last match, leads the attack and is Novorizontino’s primary threat on goal.
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Novorizontino. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
This fixture sits on a knife edge in the standings, but the underlying numbers lean toward Novorizontino. Operario’s recent 1-0 win over Athletic Club was encouraging, but it followed four defeats in five matches, and their defensive record of conceding 14 goals across those five games is a serious liability at home. Novorizontino have scored seven goals in their last three matches, carry better attacking personnel, and hold a superior goal difference. Their 3-0 win in the 2025 Série B at Estadio Germano Kruger shows they can perform on this ground.
We predict a Novorizontino win, most likely a 1-2 or 0-2 scoreline. Both teams to score carries appeal given Operario’s home audience pushing them forward, but Novorizontino’s defensive solidity in the last outing may suppress that. The over 2.5 goals market and a Novorizontino win combined offers the best value in this match.
