Sofia Quijada
The iconic Estadio Palogrande in Manizales is set to host a significant clash on January 26, 2026, at 03:20 CEST, as Once Caldas face off against Santa Fe in the Apertura phase of Colombia’s esteemed Primera A.
This encounter, still early in the campaign, pits two sides eager to solidify their credentials, especially with Once Caldas coming in from a strong home performance and Santa Fe striving to shake off a tentative start.
The venue’s altitude and vibrant local atmosphere traditionally provide an edge for the hosts, but Santa Fe’s experience on the road can never be underestimated in high-pressure fixtures like this.
While attention will naturally turn toward the orchestrators in midfield, keep a close watch on Dayro Moreno of Once Caldas—whose knack for decisive moments could prove critical—and on Hugo Rodallega of Santa Fe, whose attacking instincts and movement off the ball pose a constant threat. Notably, Santa Fe arrives as a side that can create dangerous set-piece situations; their 14 corner kicks in recent fixtures underline this capacity.
The tempo and tactical discipline of both squads, as demanded by coaches Hernán Herrera and Pablo Repetto, mean margins could be slim. Once Caldas has been defensively formidable at home, whereas Santa Fe’s adaptability remains their secret weapon in hostile territories.
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Once Caldas vs Santa Fe predictions
Me best bet: A tightly contested match leans towards a draw (X), ideally in the 1-1 range. Both teams have shown sturdy defensive patterns and pragmatic formations (4-2-3-1 each), complemented by a historical trend in this fixture: four of their last seven head-to-heads ended with a single-goal margin. Once Caldas remains unbeaten this year, while Santa Fe’s form has balanced out after a heavy fixture list. The tactical setups, recent match form, and the inherent early-season caution tip the scales towards shared honours.
The playing styles reflect this expectation. Once Caldas, with an average possession efficiency and fewer fouls (12) than Santa Fe’s aggressive 42 fouls and 11 yellows in their last five matches, tends to build play methodically. Santa Fe, however, presses higher but at the cost of more disciplinary infractions. This dynamic indicates a physical duel in midfield, possibly resulting in broken rhythm and limiting clear-cut opportunities—another mark in favour of under 2.5 goals and shared scoring.
- ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
- 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
- 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5
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Once Caldas vs Santa Fe Most recent H2Hs
| Statistic | Once Caldas | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 7 |
| Total shots | 17 | 40 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 6 |
| Corner kicks | 13 | 14 |
| Total fouls | 12 | 42 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 90 | 74 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 24 |
| Offsides | 3 | 4 |
Reviewing their previous encounters, Santa Fe often edges out with narrow victories, but Once Caldas’ home resilience is evident through close scorelines. Recent history shows neither side managing more than a single-goal win, and both teams have netted in most contests. Once Caldas’ pass accuracy (90%) and measured approach have matched up evenly against Santa Fe’s more volatile, high-foul style.
🚨Read our full Once Caldas vs Santa Fe stats for more analysis.
Key Stats
- Santa Fe have conceded in 5 of their last 7 league away matches.
- Once Caldas have kept only 1 clean sheet in the last 5 H2Hs.
- Santa Fe have received 11 yellow cards in their last 5 matches—high risk of future disciplinary trouble.
- Both teams combined average over 8 corners per match in their last five fixtures.
- Dayro Moreno has scored 2 goals in his only recent appearance for Once Caldas.
Once Caldas vs Santa Fe score prediction: 1-1
A 1-1 draw is the logical outcome, reflecting both recent form and tactical tendencies. Expect Dayro Moreno to feature again on the score sheet for the hosts, capitalising on his poacher’s instincts, while Hugo Rodallega’s movement may breach Once Caldas’ defensive lines. Defensive solidity and midfield congestion should restrict goal numbers, but the talent in both attacks ensures both nets are likely to be breached at least once.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Once Caldas the favourite
| Moneyline | Once Caldas 2.31 | Santa Fe 3.49 | |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 2.25 | Under 2.5 1.66 | |
| BTTS (both teams to score) | Yes 1.85 | No 2.02 | |
The odds rightly position Once Caldas as slight favourites due to home advantage and a more stable opening to the tournament. However, bookies’ even spread on the draw suggests an expectation of balance, supported by both teams’ tendencies to share points and lack of out-and-out superiority. The over/under market leaning to the under reflects both clubs’ recent defensive solidity and midfield-heavy game plans.
Santa Fe. Source: Official Facebook
Once Caldas vs Santa Fe Over/Under Analysis
- Four of the last five meetings produced under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in six of their last ten direct matchups.
- Santa Fe’s recent matches trend towards over 8.5 corners per game.
- Once Caldas have averaged just over one goal per game recently.
Once Caldas Preview
Once Caldas come into this fixture after a hard-fought 2-1 victory against Cucuta, underlining their ability to edge out close games at home. Their opening match in the Apertura demonstrated pragmatic play, with Dayro Moreno shining in attack and reliable defensive work in key phases. Prior performances saw them hold tough opponents like America de Cali (1-1) and Deportivo Cali (0-0), reflecting a sturdy core and intelligent game management. Possession is often balanced rather than dominant, but transitions and set-pieces have been particular strengths.
Once Caldas possible starting eleven
- GK: Joan Parra
- DF: Jorge Cardona, Juan Cuesta, Kevin Zapata, Kevin Andres Cuesta Rodriguez
- MF: Luis Sanchez, Jaime Alvarado, Mateo Zuleta García, Iván Rojas
- FW: Dayro Moreno, Michael Barrios
Santa Fe Preview
Santa Fe rides into Manizales after a challenging run featuring a 1-1 draw against Aguilas Doradas and a 3-0 triumph over Junior, revealing both their competitive ceiling and defensive vulnerabilities. Their high total shots (40 in five matches) express attacking ambition, but profligacy and discipline have been Achilles’ heels (11 yellows, 42 fouls). The team is likely to stick to their 4-2-3-1 formation, banking on veteran attackers like Rodallega and Bustos for breakthroughs, while the backline, though athletic, tends at times to overcommit.
Santa Fe possible starting eleven
- GK: Andrés Mosquera
- DF: Christian Mafla, Emanuel Olivera, Victor Moreno, Helibelton Palacios
- MF: Yilmar Velasquez, Daniel Torres, Alexis Zapata, Jhojan Torres
- FW: Hugo Rodallega, Nahuel Bustos
Our prediction: Who Wins?
As a Tips.GG team expert, our main pick is a draw, reflecting the fine balance between the sides, their distinct home and away tendencies, and the tactical approaches of both managers. The probability for a draw is 30%, according to our dedicated AI prediction engine, with Once Caldas at 41% and Santa Fe at 28%. Given Once Caldas’ home edge and Santa Fe’s counter-attacking abilities, any marginal advantage will likely be neutralised in a high-stakes, physically demanding contest.
Once Caldas. Source: Official Facebook
How to watch Once Caldas vs Santa Fe
- When? 26 January 2026
- Kick-off time: 03:20 CEST
- Where? Estadio Palogrande, Manizales, Colombia
- How to watch: Check official sports streaming partners in Colombia and international betting platforms.
- Favorite: Once Caldas
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