Sofia Quijada
In Group F of the Copa Sudamericana 2025, Once Caldas host GV San Jose at the iconic Estadio Palogrande in Manizales. This clash, set for May 16, 2025, with kick-off at 05:00 CEST, is pivotal for the hosts’ ambitions to reach the knockout stages. Under coach Hernán Herrera, Once Caldas have combined defensive resilience with creative spark, while Eduardo Villegas’ GV San Jose seek a turnaround to stay alive in the group.
With both sides capable of producing surprises, fans can expect an engaging contest under the Colombian lights. Estadio Palogrande’s atmosphere—boisterous and intimate—often serves as a fortress for Once Caldas, and the stakes could not be higher with progression on the line.
Among several names to watch, Dayro Moreno’s clinical finishing for Once Caldas and Raul Becerra’s movement for GV San Jose stand out. Their ability to influence the attacking phase has often swung the momentum in crucial moments.
A hot stat underscores Once Caldas’ threat: Dayro Moreno has scored seven goals in his last six appearances, vaulting him to the forefront as the prime danger man in this fixture.
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Once Caldas vs GV San Jose predictions
Me best bet: Once Caldas to win and Over 2.5 goals.
Once Caldas come into this match with momentum and home advantage, boasting a 57% win rate over their last 30 days and a devastating form at Palogrande. While GV San Jose showed grit in a recent win against Fluminense, their away record remains underwhelming, with five losses in their last eight. The dynamic attacking movement of Once Caldas, guided by Dayro Moreno’s efficiency, is likely to break down a vulnerable San Jose defense. Meanwhile, both defenses have conceded several goals in the group stage, which suggests a match with goals at both ends.
The stylistic clash is intriguing: Once Caldas prefer a possession game (over 1600 completed passes in last 5), pressing in key phases and rotating midfielders for control. The Colombian side’s discipline is notable, balancing aggression (14 yellow cards in 5) with positional discipline to avoid costly suspensions.
GV San Jose, though aggressive (43 fouls and 10 yellows in last 5), sometimes lack structure, which opens vulnerabilities in transition. Their ball progression is decent (1638 passes, 98 shots in 5), but frailties at the back have cost them dearly. This tactical imbalance weighs in favor of a Once Caldas victory.
- ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
- 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
- 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5
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Once Caldas vs GV San Jose Most recent H2Hs
| Statistic | Once Caldas | GV San Jose |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 21 | 12 |
| Free kicks | 16 | 18 |
| Corner kicks | 7 | 4 |
| Total fouls | 14 | 18 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 81 | 76 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 7 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
Previous meetings have featured end-to-end football. Their last duel in this group ended 3-2 for Once Caldas, in a dramatic contest defined by open play and frequent transitions. Both teams attacked with directness, but Once Caldas enjoyed a slight edge in ball retention and shot creation, capitalizing well on their home advantage. That pattern sets a precedent: when these teams face off, offensive risks outweigh caution, often leading to high goal and card counts.
🚨Read our full Once Caldas vs GV San Jose stats for more analysis.
Key Stats
- Dayro Moreno has netted 7 goals in his last 6 games.
- GV San Jose have won only 1 of their last 8 matches.
- Both teams average more than 8 corners/game over recent outings.
- In their last encounter, 5 goals and 21 total shots were recorded.
- Once Caldas have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches— an average of 2.2/game.
- GV San Jose have conceded 9 goals in 5 — vulnerable at set pieces.
Once Caldas vs GV San Jose score prediction: 3-1
Expect Once Caldas to capitalize on superior attacking form and home-field advantage. Dayro Moreno should serve as spearhead for the Colombian side, supported by Michael Barrios and Luis Palacios. GV San Jose’s Raul Becerra may find a breakthrough, given Once Caldas’ occasional defensive lapses, but the greater tactical discipline and sharpness of the hosts should ensure a multi-goal victory.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Once Caldas the favourite
| Moneyline | Once Caldas 1.10 | GV San Jose 23.00 |
|---|---|
| Draw | 8.60 |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 1.55 | Under 2.5 2.25 |
| BTTS (both teams to score) | Yes 1.90 | No 1.80 |
The odds overwhelmingly favor Once Caldas. Bookmakers assign them an 84% implied probability of victory, reflecting recent form, home strength, and GV San Jose’s road frailties. The low price on Once Caldas (1.10) is justified: their multi-threaded attack, command at Palogrande, and greater depth set them apart.
The over/under lines and BTTS odds suggest expectations of a lively contest, as both teams combine for high shot and foul counts. The slightly lower BTTS odds for “No” reflect Once Caldas’ relative defensive solidity, but considering both back lines’ recent issues, betting on “Yes” could still yield value.
Once Caldas vs GV San Jose Over/Under Analysis
- 4 of Once Caldas’ last 5 matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
- GV San Jose have conceded 9 and scored 9 in their last 5 — all but one match saw 3+ goals.
- Recent H2H produced 5 goals; expect another open contest.
- Both sides average over 19 total shots per match.
Once Caldas Preview
Once Caldas are enjoying a fruitful campaign in both domestic and continental competitions. Their last five matches have brought 4 wins and a draw, including a significant 3-2 victory over GV San Jose in Bolivia. While a 2-2 draw with Millonarios and a narrow 1-0 win over U. Espanola showcased their ability to grind results, it’s the sharp interplay and verticality—often initiated by Moreno and supported by Michael Barrios and Palacios—that define their play. Defensively, discipline is adequate, and James Aguirre’s command in goal has stifled multiple threats.
Their last match (2-2 vs Millonarios) demanded tactical flexibility, as Herrera’s men weathered late pressure but displayed resilience and variety in final third combinations.
GV San Jose Preview
GV San Jose’s recent form leaves much to be desired. With only one victory in their last eight, their challenge has been consistency—despite flashes of promise, including a gutsy 1-0 win over Fluminense. Their defense, however, has too often been breached, as reflected by 9 goals conceded in 5. Joel Lopez Pisano’s creativity in midfield and Raul Becerra’s presence up front provide hope, but sluggish transitions and discipline issues (two red cards in last 5) often prove costly.
Villegas’s side managed a 2-2 draw with SA Bulo Bulo, but subsequent routs, such as 1-5 to Blooming, underscore a side struggling to manage fast-paced encounters.
The Verdict
On behalf of the TipsGG expert team, our main pick is Once Caldas to secure a multi-goal victory. Given the hosts’ recent momentum, attacking prowess, and GV San Jose’s away struggles, we forecast a dynamic match where Once Caldas’ quality shines.
Probability: 84% Once Caldas win (TipsGG AI prediction engine)
Look for Dayro Moreno’s form to be decisive, with Barrios and García influencing possession and transitions. GV San Jose must hope for individual brilliance and better discipline to mount any real challenge.
How to watch Once Caldas vs GV San Jose
When?
Kick-off: 16.05.2025, 05:00 CEST
Where?
Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
How to watch: Official Copa Sudamericana streaming partners and select Latin American sports networks.
Favorite: Once Caldas
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GV San Jose. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
