Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Primera A - 14.03.2026

The stage is set at the iconic Estadio Palogrande in Manizales for a pivotal clash between Once Caldas and Deportivo Pasto in the Apertura phase of Colombia’s Primera A 2026. Scheduled for 14 March 2026 at 01:20 CEST, this encounter finds both sides battling near the summit of the standings, with just two points separating them. A contest between two of the division’s form teams under the guidance of Hernán Herrera (Once Caldas) and Jonathan Risueño (Deportivo Pasto), the outcome could significantly shape the league narrative as the Apertura gathers momentum.

Among a host of talented individuals, all eyes should turn to Dayro Moreno, whose four goals and key leadership role have sparked Once Caldas’ recent attacking surges, and Andrey Estupiñán for Deportivo Pasto, a dynamic forward with two crucial goals from limited appearances, who could be decisive in transition.

Statistically, the “hot stat” emerging from previous fixtures is Once Caldas’ remarkable scoring run: 12 goals over five games, powered by a free-flowing, high-press offense that creates consistent danger.

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Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto predictions

Me best bet: Once Caldas to win. The hosts have demonstrated superior attacking balance in recent weeks, notably dispatching Deportivo Cali and Boyaca Chico with a clinical combined score of 5-0. Their defensive organization has held firm against most adversaries, while Deportivo Pasto, though gritty, have not matched the same creative output or conversion rate. The data points to Once Caldas’ high goal tally (12 in 5 league games) versus Pasto’s more modest eight, while also noting a considerable yellow card disparity suggesting Once Caldas’ aggressive pressing style.

When analyzing both teams’ styles, a tangible contrast emerges. Once Caldas control possession through intricate midfield patterns (1836 passes with 82.6 percent accuracy) and a disciplined back line, resulting in higher interception and shot counts. However, this assertiveness comes at the cost of discipline: 18 yellow cards in five matches indicate a willingness to disrupt rhythm at all costs. Deportivo Pasto, though calmer (seven yellows), often cede initiative yet compensate with direct breaks and tactical fouling to stall opposition advances. High tempo from Caldas may inflate card totals, and if Pasto’s compactness holds early, look for late-game drama.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto Most recent H2Hs

Historically, these encounters have been tightly contested. Once Caldas came out top in three of their last five meetings, including an emphatic 4-0 in Copa Colombia 2025. Deportivo Pasto snatched a key win in the 2025 Apertura but typically struggle to impose their tempo away from home. Regression to the mean suggests a close contest, yet Once Caldas’ multifaceted attack and robust pressing offer a decisive edge.

🚨Read our full Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Once Caldas have scored at least two goals in four of their last five matches.
• Deportivo Pasto have just one defeat from the last ten league matches.
• Once Caldas lead the league in total yellow cards (18 in five games).
• Combined pass accuracy over 82 percent for both sides expect organized build-ups rather than chaotic play.
• Last five H2Hs average over 2.2 goals per game.
• Pasto have not conceded more than two goals in any of their last six away matches.

Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto score prediction: 2-1

Expect a finely balanced affair, but with Once Caldas’ offensive arsenal led by Dayro Moreno and supported by Jefry Zapata featuring prominently. Deportivo Pasto’s compact back line and the creative instincts of Andrey Estupiñán will keep it close, but ultimately the home support and greater attacking output should see Caldas edge it 2-1.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Once Caldas the favourite

Once Caldas are deserved favourites given their home advantage and recent goal glut, reflected in the sub-2.00 odds. Deportivo Pasto’s value as an underdog is not to be dismissed, particularly for draw or both-teams-to-score bets, given their consistent scoring form and ability to grind out results. The over/under line at 2.5 matches recent trends for open contests between these sides.

Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Once Caldas’ last five games produced three or more goals.
• Deportivo Pasto saw three of their last five matches end with at least two goals.
• Given attacking trends, over 2.5 goals carries strong value.
• Both teams have scored in three of their last five direct duels.

Once Caldas Preview

Once Caldas enter this fixture buoyed by dominant wins over Deportivo Cali (2-0) and Boyaca Chico (3-0), underlining both attacking flair and defensive tenacity. The lone defeat against Deportes Tolima was quickly erased from memory with successive victories, exemplifying the squad’s resilience. Top scorer Dayro Moreno orchestrates the attack, while Jefry Zapata’s clinical finishing and Juan Cuesta’s assured defensive distribution are crucial strengths. Expect a continuation of their high-press, high-reward approach though discipline remains a concern, with discipline metrics among the league’s highest.

Once Caldas possible starting eleven

Deportivo Pasto Preview

Deportivo Pasto remain unbeaten in their last five, a feat owed to solid team structure, tactical acumen, and the timely interventions of Andrey Estupiñán. Their 2-0 victory over America de Cali reasserted their defensive prowess and rapid transition system. While they generate fewer shots than Caldas, their disciplined formation minimizes risk and maximizes counter-attacking threat. However, limited attacking depth and infrequent chances may require clinical finishing to leave Manizales with points.

Deportivo Pasto possible starting eleven

The Verdict

As the TipsGG team of analysts, our expert view is that Once Caldas are poised to secure all three points, buoyed by home advantage, superior attacking metrics, and momentum. While Deportivo Pasto pose a significant threat, especially on the counter and through set-pieces, the combination of prolific forwards and structured build-up play tips the balance. Our AI-powered prediction model gives Once Caldas a 50 percent win probability, 28 percent for a draw, and 22 percent for a Pasto away victory mirroring market consensus but grounded in nuanced tactical and statistical analysis.

How to watch Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto

When?
Kick-off: 14 March 2026, 01:20 CEST
Where?
Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
How to watch: Official league broadcaster, online via partner streaming platforms, and selected betting streams.
Favorite: Once Caldas

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