Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima Prediction: 28.08.2026 Primera A Clausura

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Once Caldas host Deportes Tolima at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales in what is a genuinely meaningful Clausura fixture. Tolima sit third in the table with 10 points from five games, while Once Caldas are tenth with six points, having drawn three of their five outings. The head-to-head record tells a stark story: Tolima have won five of the last seven meetings and have not lost to Once Caldas since at least 2024. The home side will be eager to reverse that trend in front of their own fans, but the numbers make that a tough ask.

Two players stand out heading into this match. For Tolima, Sebastian Guzman has been a constant presence across all five recent games, accumulating 352 passes, three yellow cards, and a goal, making him the engine of Oliveros’ midfield. For Once Caldas, Andres Colorado is the most complete contributor in Herrera’s squad, with a goal, an assist, and the highest pass volume among outfield players in recent matches, though his two yellow cards in five games suggest he operates on the edge.

A notable stat from Tolima’s recent run: defender Junior Hernandez has scored two goals from the back line across his last five appearances, a genuine threat from set pieces and attacking transitions that Once Caldas’ defence cannot afford to overlook.

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima Prediction

Tolima are the value pick here. They have won five of the last seven head-to-head clashes, they carry more goal threat across their recent five matches (79 total shots to Once Caldas’ 67), and their pass accuracy of 85% outpaces Once Caldas’ 87% only marginally, but Tolima do this with a far higher volume (2,643 passes versus 1,849). The away side is simply the better-constructed team right now, and the Clausura standings back that up.

Once Caldas’ style is reactive: they foul less (36 fouls in five games) and press with moderate intensity, but their 4-2-3-1 relies heavily on individual moments rather than systemic pressure. Tolima’s 4-4-2 generates significantly more corner kicks (30 versus 15 for Once Caldas across five games) and commits more fouls (57), suggesting they press aggressively and win territory. That territorial dominance, combined with Tolima’s set-piece threat, points toward a match where the visitors control large portions of play. Once Caldas have drawn three of their five Clausura games, so a low-scoring, competitive contest is plausible, but Tolima’s quality in the final third makes a home shutout unlikely.

• We predict Deportes Tolima to win this match.
• Lean toward Over 2.5 goals given both teams’ recent scoring patterns and Tolima’s attacking output.
• Both teams to score Yes, as Once Caldas have found the net in their last four matches.

Team Analysis

Once Caldas have gone four matches without a loss (two wins, two draws) heading into this game, which is a positive streak, but the quality of opposition has been mixed. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw with Junior Barranquilla, a side that has won just once in their last 15 matches. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Atletico Nacional, which was an encouraging result, but also drew 1-1 with Jaguares de Cordoba, a team ranked 1409th in the world club rankings. The wins in their recent form came against similarly modest opponents. In the Clausura, Once Caldas have scored nine goals in five games, which is respectable, but they have conceded six, pointing to a defence that leaks regularly. Their red card tally (one in five games) and 11 yellow cards suggest a side that can be pressured into mistakes.

Deportes Tolima’s most recent match was a 1-3 home loss to Independiente del Valle, a side that has won every single one of their last 15 matches by the data available. That defeat should not be read as a collapse in form. Prior to that, Tolima drew 0-0 with Bucaramanga and beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1. Their loss to Independiente del Valle was their second in a row against that specific opponent (they also lost 0-1 in an earlier fixture). In the Clausura, Tolima have scored eight goals and conceded six in five games, sitting third with 10 points. Their 57 fouls in five recent matches, the highest among the two sides, reflects a team that presses hard and battles for every ball, which suits away games where they need to disrupt the home side’s rhythm.

🚨Check out our dedicated Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Once Caldas the Favourite

• Moneyline Once Caldas 2.10 | Deportes Tolima 3.60
• Draw 2.65

The bookmakers list Once Caldas as slight favourites at home, with an average win probability of 45% versus Tolima’s 27%. To be honest, those odds look generous on Tolima given the head-to-head dominance and the quality gap visible in the team stats. The draw at 2.65 with Everygame is fair given Once Caldas’ tendency to draw, but backing Tolima at 3.60 represents real value for a side that has won five of the last seven meetings and arrives with better form in the Clausura table.

Possible Starting Lineups

Once Caldas Possible Starting Eleven

Hernán Herrera is likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has been his default in recent matches. Joan Parra starts in goal after accumulating the most playing time among the two keepers. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Jorge Cardona and Daniel Londono as the widest options. Andres Colorado is the standout name to watch: his combination of goals, assists, and pass volume makes him Once Caldas’ most dangerous creative outlet, though his disciplinary record (two yellows in four games) is a concern in a physical derby. Andrés Roa provides a goal threat from midfield and will likely operate in the advanced central role behind Dayro Moreno.

Deportes Tolima Possible Starting Eleven

Sebastián Oliveros has favoured the 4-4-2 shape across his recent selections. Miguel Ortega gets the nod in goal based on appearances. Junior Hernandez is a serious aerial threat from right back and his two goals in five games make him one of the most dangerous defenders in this fixture. In midfield, Homer Martinez and Sebastian Guzman are the two highest-volume players, with Martinez accumulating 10 shots and 223 passes in five games despite three yellow cards. Adrián Parra and Ever Valencia lead the line, with Valencia providing a goal and an assist in just three appearances, suggesting he could be a key impact player if he starts.

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The Verdict

The data points consistently toward Deportes Tolima. They have won five of the last seven head-to-head meetings, they generate more shots, more corners, and press with greater intensity than Once Caldas. The home side’s recent Clausura form includes three draws and a loss to America de Cali, and while they score goals, their defensive record of six conceded in five games suggests Tolima will find a way through. Tolima’s 30 corners in five recent matches (double Once Caldas’ 15) highlights their territorial aggression, and Junior Hernandez’s two goals from defence add a set-piece dimension that Once Caldas will struggle to contain. We predict a Deportes Tolima win, with both teams scoring and the match finishing with at least three goals total. The value bet is Tolima on the moneyline at 3.60 with Everygame.

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