Liam Duckstein
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The 2026 Cypriot Super Cup Final brings together two sides that know each other extremely well. Omonia Nicosia, under Henning Berg, face Pafos and Ricardo Sá Pinto in what is one of the most contested Cypriot rivalries in recent memory. Omonia have won every single domestic league meeting between these two sides this calendar year, making this final a real test of whether Pafos can finally reverse that trend on a neutral stage at the GSP Stadium in Nicosia.
Two players stand out heading into this match. Loïs Diony has been in excellent form for Omonia, scoring four goals across the last five games and bringing a consistent threat in the final third. For Pafos, Gabriel Teixeira Aragao leads the line with seven shots in five matches, one goal, and a free kick goal to his name, making him the most dangerous attacking presence in Sá Pinto’s squad.
A hot stat from recent fixtures: Pafos committed 52 fouls across their last five matches, more than double Omonia’s 19. That foul count, combined with 13 yellow cards and one red, signals a physically aggressive approach that could shape the tempo of this final.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Cypriot Super Cup 2026 – Final |
| 🏟 Venue: | GSP Stadium, Nicosia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Omonia Nicosia vs Pafos Prediction
Omonia Nicosia are the standout value pick in this match. Their year-to-date record of 23 wins from 36 games (64% win rate) comfortably outpaces Pafos’s 43%, and the head-to-head record in domestic competition has been one-sided in Omonia’s favour throughout 2025/26. Berg’s side won all four Cypriot First Division meetings this season, including a 4-2 and two 2-0 victories. That pattern is hard to ignore.
Pafos are not without quality, and their attacking output of eight goals in five matches is actually higher than Omonia’s five. To be honest, Sá Pinto’s side can score, but their defensive discipline is a concern. They average over ten fouls per match, carry significant card risk, and gave up three goals to Salzburg in a single game during European qualifying. Omonia’s more structured approach, with a 4-2-3-1 shape, should allow them to control transitions and exploit the spaces Pafos leave behind their high-pressing 4-3-3.
We predict Omonia Nicosia to win this match. The bookmakers price them as slight underdogs at 2.35, but their domestic form and superior head-to-head record this season justify backing them here.
Omonia’s pass accuracy sits at 637 from 797 passes in five games, while Pafos recorded 975 accurate passes from 1,191 attempts. Pafos do move the ball more, but their 52 fouls and 13 yellow cards suggest that possession advantage often breaks down under pressure. Omonia’s more disciplined structure, with just 19 fouls and five yellows, gives them a tactical edge in a final where composure matters.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Omonia Nicosia to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Omonia Nicosia have been consistent over the last 30 days, picking up two wins and two draws from five matches with one defeat. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 draw against Omonia Aradippou, a cautious result that suggests Berg may have rotated with this Super Cup Final in mind. Before that, they beat Sint Truidense 4-2 in a high-scoring Europa qualifying second leg, having lost the first leg 0-1. They also progressed past Lincoln Red Imps, winning 1-0 away before drawing 1-1 at home. The European campaign has given the squad match sharpness ahead of this final.
Pafos arrive in similar form on paper, with two wins and two draws from their last five games and one defeat. Their most recent result was a convincing 3-0 win over Karmiotissa, a strong performance that will give Sá Pinto confidence. They also beat Dinamo Tirana 4-2 in the second leg of their European tie, after drawing 1-1 in Albania. The Salzburg double-header was more mixed: a 3-3 draw at home followed by a 0-1 loss away. Pafos can score freely, but they concede too. Their defensive numbers across five matches reflect a side that relies on attack to win games rather than clean sheets.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met frequently across domestic and European competition. The recent record strongly favours Omonia.
| Statistic | Omonia Nicosia | Pafos |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 8 |
| Total shots | 58 | 43 |
| Free kicks | 24 | 49 |
| Corner kicks | 18 | 9 |
| Total fouls | 19 | 52 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 77 | 75 |
| Interceptions | 20 | 32 |
| Offsides | 0 | 10 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Omonia Nicosia vs Pafos stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Omonia Nicosia the favourite
- Moneyline Omonia Nicosia 2.35 | Pafos 2.70
- Draw 3.35
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The 2.35 on Omonia Nicosia looks like genuine value. Bookmakers price them as a narrow favourite, but the domestic head-to-head data and overall season win rate suggest they are stronger than these odds reflect. Pafos at 2.70 is interesting given their attacking form, but their defensive vulnerabilities and disciplinary issues make them a riskier proposition. The draw at 3.35 is fair given the cup final context, where tight margins are expected.
Possible Starting Lineups
Omonia Nicosia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Fabiano
- DF: Nikolas Panagiotou, Mateo Marić, Jure Balkovec, Senou Coulibaly
- MF: Ewandro, panagiotis andreou, Ioannis Kousoulos, Muamer Tanković
- FW: Loïs Diony, Jaden Sean Montnor
Berg is likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has served Omonia well this season. Fabiano takes the gloves after four consecutive starts. Nikolas Panagiotou provides an attacking threat from right back, having scored once and contributed defensively. The midfield pivot of Mateo Marić and panagiotis andreou gives Omonia balance, with Ewandro operating as a creative link. Up front, Loïs Diony is the man to watch. Four goals in five games makes him the most in-form attacker on either side heading into this final.
Pafos Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Radosław Majecki
- DF: David Goldar, David Luiz, Nicholas Ioannou, Felipe Bruno
- MF: Pêpê, Ivan Šunjić, Gonçalo Rosa Gonçalves Pereira Rodrigues, Vlad Dragomir
- FW: Gabriel Teixeira Aragao, Anderson Silva
Sá Pinto will likely deploy the 4-3-3 that Pafos have used consistently across recent matches. Radosław Majecki starts in goal after four appearances. The experienced David Luiz anchors the back line alongside David Goldar, who has logged the most minutes among Pafos defenders. In midfield, Pêpê has been the most active passer with 147 passes and strong accuracy. Gabriel Teixeira Aragao leads the attack and is the one player capable of punishing any lapse in Omonia’s defensive structure, having already scored and registered a free kick goal this campaign.
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Pafos. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Omonia Nicosia are the pick for this Super Cup Final. Their 64% win rate across 36 matches this year, four consecutive domestic wins over Pafos, and the disciplined structure Berg has built make them the more reliable side. Pafos have the firepower to threaten, but their foul count, card accumulation, and defensive leakiness in European matches are real concerns at this level.
We predict Omonia Nicosia to win, with the match staying under 2.5 goals. Cup finals between evenly matched rivals rarely produce open affairs, and Omonia’s defensive numbers suggest they are capable of keeping Pafos at bay. The corner market also appeals, with Omonia averaging 18 corners across five matches compared to Pafos’s nine, pointing toward an over 7.5 total corners as a strong secondary play.
