Arjun Menon
A Super League 1 Championship showdown at Karaiskakis Stadium, Olympiacos hosting PAOK, two fierce rivals tangled in a high-stakes contest. With PAOK recently dismantling Olympiacos 3-1, both sides are wounded but restless, keen to claw back points and pride. José Luis Mendilibar’s Olympiacos and Răzvan Lucescu’s PAOK line up again, scripts unwritten, but the tension heavy. There’s a subtle subplot: Olympiacos, for all their tradition and fire, are just a point behind PAOK in the mini-league table, chasing a season-defining victory.
The duel might be shaped by Ayoub El Kaabi’s predatory presence for Olympiacos—his finishing is pure, his runs relentless. For PAOK, Alexander Jeremejeff’s five-goal spree in just four recent matches injects danger in every phase. Neither team leans on their goalkeepers as key men—defenders and creators pull the strings, attackers finish the job.
The “hot stat”: PAOK have scored eight goals in their last five matches, double Olympiacos’ output over the same span. If momentum matters, PAOK look sharper up front.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Super League 1 2025/26 Championship |
| 🏟 Venue: | Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Olympiacos vs PAOK prediction
Best value prediction: Both Teams To Score – Yes.
Olympiacos step in as the statistical favorites with a 56% win probability, but the reality is jagged: PAOK just beat them 3-1. Olympiacos’ defense hasn’t been watertight, and PAOK are hitting the net more often. Both teams show erratic recent form—Olympiacos with a 33% winrate in the last 30 days, PAOK with just 25%. Their head-to-head history is wild, lots of goals, shaky defending, no true control.
Yellow cards pile up for both squads: Olympiacos (6), PAOK (8) in five matches. Neither side shy away from fouls—Olympiacos (33), PAOK (59). This breeds chaos, open space, set-piece drama. PAOK have more passes, more possession, but that hasn’t always led to dominance. Olympiacos win more duels, yet let up more shots. Expect transitions, nervous defending, errors punished—perfect storm for goals on both ends.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 4.5 Cards |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Olympiacos last faced PAOK and suffered a bruising 1-3 defeat, their defense undone by PAOK’s directness and Jeremejeff’s clinical finishing. Prior to that, they handled Panathinaikos 2-0, showing glimpses of attacking synergy, but then fell short against AEK Athens in a narrow 0-1 contest. Flashes of potential, then lapses in concentration—it’s been a pattern. Their passing accuracy hovers at a solid mark, but the attack relies heavily on El Kaabi’s sharpness.
PAOK’s last five games were a storm: a 3-1 win over Olympiacos, but also a stumble against OFI Crete (2-3 loss) and a drubbing by AEK Athens (0-3). Their attack, led by Jeremejeff and Andrija Živković, remains the spearhead; midfield sometimes disjointed, but the front line converts chances. Their yellow cards are creeping up—discipline an issue—but when PAOK flow, they’re hard to stop. The real problem comes from inconsistency: sublime one game, sluggish the next.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Olympiacos | PAOK |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 8 |
| Total shots | 41 | 46 |
| Free kicks | 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 19 | 22 |
| Total fouls | 33 | 59 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 72.5 | 75.7 |
| Interceptions | 38 | 21 |
| Offsides | 9 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Olympiacos vs PAOK stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite
- Moneyline Olympiacos 1.80 | PAOK 5.20
- Draw 3.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.73
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.88
Bookmakers see Olympiacos as solid favorites—1.80 on the moneyline, PAOK drifting out to 5.20. The draw sits around 3.60, hinting at respect for PAOK’s resistance, but also skepticism about Olympiacos’ ruthlessness. Over 2.5 at even money says the market expects an open game, BTTS Yes/No almost split down the middle. We think the odds are tilting too much in Olympiacos’ favor after that recent defeat; PAOK’s attacking threat is real. Maybe the smarter punt is on goals or cards, not the outright result.
Olympiacos. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Olympiacos possible starting eleven
- GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
- DF: Rodinei, Panagiotis Retsos, Lorenzo Pirola, Francisco Ortega
- MF: Santiago Hezze, Chiquinho, Dani García
- FW: Gelson Martins, Ayoub El Kaabi, Costinha
The likely 4-2-3-1 for Olympiacos brings stability at the back with Pirola and Retsos, while Ortega and Rodinei provide width. Hezze and Dani García add grit in midfield. Chiquinho, with his creative touches, links the lines. El Kaabi spearheads the attack, flanked by the pacey Gelson Martins and the energetic Costinha. Expect Chiquinho to be a pivot—his passing and movement are keys to unlocking PAOK’s backline.
PAOK possible starting eleven
- GK: Jiří Pavlenka
- DF: Joan Sastre, Tomasz Kędziora, Giannis Michailidis, Abdul Baba Rahman
- MF: Magomed Ozdoev, Christos Zafeiris, Giannis Konstantelias
- FW: Andrija Živković, Alexander Jeremejeff, Taison Barcellos Freda
PAOK should stick with their own 4-2-3-1: Sastre and Baba Rahman on the flanks, Kędziora and Michailidis central. Pavlenka’s experience anchors the back. The midfield is busy—Zafeiris and Konstantelias orchestrating, Ozdoev anchoring. The front three are loaded: Živković drifts and scores, Jeremejeff is a constant threat, Taison offers unpredictable movement. Watch for Jeremejeff to test Olympiacos’ center-backs all evening.
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PAOK. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Olympiacos usually hold the edge at home, but PAOK’s recent 3-1 win has rattled their cage. The defensive numbers for both are wobbly, yellow cards stack up, and the attacks are hungry. We expect goals—maybe chaos, probably drama. The punters’ pick: Both Teams To Score at 1.90, or Over 2.5 Goals if you want a dash of risk. Olympiacos might squeeze it, but PAOK’s attack is too sharp to blank. Honestly, the value is in betting on goals, not the moneyline.
