Olympiacos vs PAOK Prediction: 08.11.2026 Super League 1

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Second hosts third at Karaiskakis on Sunday night, and the Super League 1 table makes this the standout fixture of the round. Olympiacos sit on 22 points, four clear of PAOK, with Panathinaikos lurking above them. A home win pushes the hosts toward the summit. A PAOK win blows the title race wide open and cuts the gap to one.

Here is the wrinkle. PAOK are unbeaten in five straight meetings with Olympiacos, three wins and two draws, a run that covers last season’s championship round and a cup quarterfinal. Form points one way, history points the other.

Watch Jota Silva for the hosts. Three goals and 14 shots across his last five appearances make him the sharpest tool in Imanol Alguacil’s box. Cherif Ndiaye answers for PAOK, three goals from 19 shots in the same span, with Andrija Živković and his four assists pulling the strings behind him. The hot stat belongs to the visitors: five consecutive matches against Olympiacos without defeat.

Olympiacos vs PAOK prediction

We predict a 2-1 Olympiacos win, and the value lives in Olympiacos to win & both teams to score rather than the bare home price. The hosts have won seven of their last eight, conceded four league goals all season and dismantled AO Kalamata 5-0, the same side that beat PAOK 3-1 a few weeks earlier. PAOK score plenty, 18 league goals, but their 12 conceded is the worst return among the top four. Every one of their last five matches produced over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring. A tight home defence against a leaky but dangerous visitor lands neatly on a home win with goals at both ends.

Both coaches favour a 4-2-3-1, so mirrored shapes and a midfield wrestling match are likely. Olympiacos control the ball: 2,673 passes at 86% accuracy across their last five, plus 38 corners won. PAOK go direct, 2,145 passes at 82%, and they win more free kicks, 71 to 62. Fouls run almost level, 73 to 72, which points to a stop-start contest and a busy referee. Discipline is the divider. PAOK collected nine yellows and two reds in five matches; Olympiacos took six and none. A visitors’ red card in this atmosphere would probably settle the night.

Team Analysis

Alguacil’s side are rolling. Seven wins from eight in 30 days, and the recent run reads 5-0 over Kalamata, 2-0 past Marko in the cup, 3-2 against Kifisia and a 1-0 in Prague against Sparta. Tuesday’s 0-0 in Rennes was the first blank in weeks, and even that came against a strong opponent. In our preview of Rennes vs Olympiacos we called the visitors to leave Roazhon Park unbeaten on the strength of their defensive numbers, and the 0-0 result delivered it, even if the goals leg of that same bet never arrived. Four days later, heavy rotation is unlikely and the back line should keep its place.

PAOK’s October was streaky rather than solid. Wins over Iraklis, AEK Athens and Asteras Tripolis were split by defeats to OFI Crete and Kalamata. The 3-1 win over AEK was a genuine scalp. The home loss to OFI stung. Last time out Lisci’s men edged Asteras 2-1, Ndiaye again decisive, and the response after two poor results mattered. The worry for the visitors is consistency and away defensive control; the hope is that this fixture has consistently brought out their best, with three wins and two draws from the last five against Sunday’s opponents.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

PAOK lead the recent series. Across the last five meetings the goals split 8-3 their way, and Olympiacos have not beaten them since a 4-2 playoff win in May 2025. The figures below are pulled from each club’s last five matches in all competitions.

🚨Check out our dedicated Olympiacos vs PAOK stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite

• Moneyline Olympiacos 1.80 | PAOK 4.05
• Draw 3.45

The market’s 51/26/23 probability split matches those prices almost exactly, and the favouritism is earned rather than generous. Seven wins from eight buys you short numbers. To be honest, PAOK at 4.05 for a side unbeaten in five against these opponents is the provocative price, and perhaps worth a small play for the brave. We still side with Olympiacos because PAOK have already lost three of nine and concede too freely, though the draw at 3.45 has real history behind it, two level finishes in the last five meetings.

Possible Starting Lineups

Olympiacos possible starting eleven

Alguacil’s 4-2-3-1 picks itself on minutes. Hezze and Puerta screen, Chiquinho carries the creative load with two assists in four, and Fortounis drifts inside from the right. Jota Silva is undroppable after three goals in five, running off Yaremchuk, who keeps the nine role on appearances. Nayair Tiknizyan, Gelson Martins and Marius Mouandilmadji, two goals in three cameos, are the fresh legs if the game stretches.

PAOK possible starting eleven

Lisci keeps his spine intact. Costa and Hatzidiakos shield Monastirlis, Kenny and Giannoulis supply width, and Zafeiris plus Jakić do the dirty work in the pivot. Ugresic edges Baptiste Santamaria for the third midfield slot on minutes. Živković is the engine with four assists in five, Taison floats between the lines, and Ndiaye leads the line after 427 minutes and 19 shots. Simon Banza, three goals himself, is the plan B. Shape: 4-2-3-1.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Olympiacos 2-1 is our call. The hosts’ form, their four league goals conceded in nine rounds and the Karaiskakis factor justify the favouritism, yet PAOK’s five-match unbeaten run in this fixture stops us from anything bolder than a one-goal margin. Jota Silva’s shot volume makes him the likeliest scorer, Ndiaye the away threat, and both attacks arrive warm. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score carry real value alongside the home win. The straight 1.80 on Olympiacos is fair, not generous, so the win-plus-BTTS combination is where we put our money this Sunday.

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