Olympiacos vs AEL Larisa Prediction: 22.03.2026 Super League 1 2025/26 Preview

As the Super League 1 regular season nears its conclusion, Olympiacos hosts AEL Larisa at Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus. While the home side remains locked in a fierce title race, AEL Larisa finds themselves battling to climb away from the relegation trapdoor. With both teams aiming for a statement result, this fixture offers plenty of intrigue beyond just the points at stake.

For Olympiacos, all eyes will be on Ayoub El Kaabi, whose recent scoring form provides a decisive edge up front. The Moroccan’s four goals in his last five matches mark him as the clear focal point in attack. For AEL Larisa, Ángelo Sagal stands out, having netted twice in the last five games—his sharpness could be pivotal if the visitors are to challenge the odds.

A standout stat enters the narrative: Olympiacos have maintained an exceptional defensive record at home, conceding just 11 goals in 25 league matches—a testament to their defensive resilience and disciplined structure under José Luis Mendilibar.

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Olympiacos vs AEL Larisa prediction

Given current form, squad depth, and historical trends, Olympiacos enter this clash as overwhelming favorites. Their home form has been formidable with just two league losses all season, and their attack boasts a reliable output, averaging nearly two goals per game. With AEL Larisa struggling to find the back of the net—in fact, scoring only twice in their last five matches—the value lies in a convincing home victory, potentially to nil.

Tactically, Olympiacos prefer a 3-4-3 formation which emphasizes wide play and high pressing, while AEL Larisa will likely deploy a 4-2-3-1, looking to absorb pressure and hit on the break. Olympiacos’ 56 total fouls with only seven yellow cards in their last five outings underscores their balanced aggression and discipline. By contrast, Larisa’s higher foul count (61) with 15 yellows suggests possible defensive frailty and a vulnerability to set-pieces—an area Olympiacos is well equipped to exploit. The hosts’ superior pass accuracy and considerable shot volume (88 shots, 31 corners in their last five) further signal a game played mostly in Larisa’s half.

Team Analysis

Olympiacos Recent Games: Olympiacos have shown versatility and consistency, highlighted in their 3-0 thrashing of OFI Crete. Their attack, steered by El Kaabi and creative outlets like Gelson Martins, produces a flurry of attempts on target. Their draw against title rivals PAOK (0-0) further reinforced their ability to control matches against stubborn opposition while maintaining defensive solidity.

AEL Larisa Recent Games: In contrast, AEL Larisa have found wins elusive—drawing three out of their last five, and conceding heavily in a 0-3 defeat to OFI Crete. Despite their struggles, they managed creditable draws against higher-ranked PAOK (1-1) and Panathinaikos (1-1). Still, their lack of offensive threat and a leaky defense—61 fouls and 15 yellow cards in five games—are major concerns.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Olympiacos vs AEL Larisa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite

• Moneyline Olympiacos 1.14-1.17 | AEL Larisa 14.00-17.00
• Draw 6.20-7.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.60 | Under 2.5 2.20
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.85 | No 1.40

The bookmakers’ consensus is clear—Olympiacos is a dominant favorite with odds heavily shortened on the home win. These odds are justified by Olympiacos’ consistent goal threat, defensive strength, and AEL Larisa’s poor form. The “No” for both teams to score, paired with “Under 2.5” as a second-favorite, highlights the market’s expectation that AEL Larisa will struggle to break down Olympiacos’ defense. Bettors seeking value could lean on handicap bets or correct score markets that reflect a multi-goal margin for the hosts.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Olympiacos possible starting eleven

• GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
• DF: Panagiotis Retsos, Lorenzo Pirola, Rodinei
• MF: Chiquinho, Dani García, Diogo Nascimento, Francisco Ortega
• FW: Ayoub El Kaabi, Gelson Martins, Christos Mouzakitis

Olympiacos should line up in their preferred 3-4-3, maximizing their wingbacks’ attacking thrust while El Kaabi spearheads the frontline. Retsos and Pirola provide physicality and composure at the back. Chiquinho’s workrate and Dani García’s distribution stabilize midfield transitions, while Gelson Martins could be crucial in stretching Larisa’s lines.

AEL Larisa possible starting eleven

• GK: Nikolaos Melissas
• DF: Theocharis Iliadis, Erick Ferigra, Yvann Macon, Dylan Batubinsika
• MF: Jani Atanasov, Davíð Kristján Ólafsson, Gaël Kakuta, Facundo Pérez, Ángelo Sagal
• FW: Ľubomír Tupta

AEL Larisa will likely stick with a 4-2-3-1, designed to add bodies in midfield but prone to being overrun by Olympiacos’ dynamic attack. Sagal and Kakuta offer rare threat, while Melissas must be at his shot-stopping best. The backline will need to remain compact to avoid creating space for El Kaabi.

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My take on the Match

Expect Olympiacos to seize control early, leveraging their technical superiority and attacking fluency. The best bet is for Olympiacos to cover the -1.5 handicap, given Larisa’s recent defensive vulnerabilities and limited attacking output. Olympiacos’ consistency at home combined with match winners like El Kaabi makes them an appealing choice for both outright and handicap markets. On current evidence, a 3-0 or 2-0 scoreline in favor of Olympiacos appears most likely.

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