Sofia Quijada
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Olimpia sit second in the Clausura table and arrive unbeaten in six, yet Nacional have been the better side in this fixture historically, winning five of the last ten meetings against just two for Olimpia. That gap between current form and head-to-head record is what makes this one tricky to call. Both clubs trail Libertad by a handful of points and both have identical goal differences of plus 12, so Sunday’s derby in Asuncion carries real weight for the title picture.
Gabriel Ávalos has been Olimpia’s main attacking outlet, leading the squad in shots and minutes among forwards over the last five games, and his movement in behind will test a Nacional backline that has conceded just seven goals in twelve league matches. On the other side, Leandro Meza has been Nacional’s most productive midfielder, scoring and carrying the heaviest workload of any Nacional player in the final third over the recent run.
Hot stat: Olimpia have scored 9 goals across their last five matches, almost double Nacional’s 5, but they have also picked up 13 yellow cards in that span against just 7 for Nacional, a discipline gap that could matter in a derby refereed tightly.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Paraguayan Primera Division 2026 Clausura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Defensores del Chaco, Asunción |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:15 CEST |
Olimpia Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion prediction
We lean toward Olimpia avoiding defeat rather than backing a straight home win. Their form is stronger on paper, four wins and two draws in the last six without a single loss, but Nacional have found a way to frustrate them repeatedly in recent seasons, including three draws and a heavy 1-4 win in the last ten meetings. A Draw No Bet on Olimpia, or a Double Chance 1X, offers better value than the outright moneyline given how often this fixture ends level or close.
Olimpia’s pass accuracy and total shot numbers from their last five outings (63 shots, 1894 passes) point to a side that dominates territory, but their 13 yellow cards in that stretch show they can get dragged into physical battles. Nacional foul slightly more (54 to Olimpia’s 51) and have picked up fewer cards, suggesting a more disciplined approach that could keep the game tight into the final third rather than opening it up.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Olimpia Double Chance (1X) & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Olimpia’s last match ended 1-1 against Sportivo Luqueno, breaking a run of three straight wins including a 1-0 away success over league leaders Libertad and a 3-0 thrashing of San Lorenzo. The draw against Luqueno shows that even against weaker opposition Olimpia can switch off, something Nacional’s organized defense will look to exploit. Before that stumble, the attacking numbers were strong, three wins from the previous four with eight goals scored in that stretch.
Nacional’s most recent game also finished level, a 2-2 thriller against Independiente Luque, following a 1-1 draw with Ameliano. Before those two draws, Nacional looked sharper, beating 2 de Mayo 3-0 and Rubio Nu 1-0, though a 0-1 loss to Cerro Porteno in between shows some inconsistency away from home. The two straight draws suggest Víctor Bernay’s side has cooled off slightly heading into this derby, perhaps the one factor working in Olimpia’s favour.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Olimpia Asuncion | Nacional Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 10 meetings) | 9 | 15 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Olimpia Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion stats page for more info.
Nacional Asuncion. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Olimpia Asuncion the favourite
- Moneyline Olimpia Asuncion 2.02 | Nacional Asuncion 4.31
- Draw 3.03
Pinnacle’s sharp line gives Olimpia roughly a 47% implied chance of winning outright, consistent with the market average, while Nacional sit near 24%. The gap between those two numbers looks a touch generous toward the home side given how often Nacional have troubled them in this exact matchup historically. We would rather take the draw or a double chance line than the straight home price at odds around 2.00.
Possible Starting Lineups
Olimpia Asuncion possible starting eleven
- GK: Gastón Olveira
- DF: Raúl Cáceres Bogado, Juan Vera, Bryan Bentaberry, Tim Payne
- MF: Richard Ortiz, Mateo Gamarra, Alan Rodríguez, Bernardo Benitez Farina, Juan Fernando Alfaro
- FW: Gabriel Ávalos
Pablo Sánchez keeps faith with the 4-1-4-1 shape that has carried Olimpia through this unbeaten run. Richard Ortiz drops in as the holding midfielder breaking up play, while Gabriel Ávalos leads the line alone and needs support from the wide midfielders to stretch Nacional’s back four.
Nacional Asuncion possible starting eleven
- GK: Santiago Rojas
- DF: Sebastian Vargas, Gaston Benitez, Carlos Espinola, Rodrigo Melgarejo
- MF: Fabrizio Jara, Leandro Meza, Angel Lucena, Josué Colmán, Orlando Gaona Lugo
- FW: Richard Prieto
Víctor Bernay mirrors the 4-1-4-1 setup with Fabrizio Jara screening the back four, a role he has filled in every recent game. Leandro Meza pushes forward from midfield looking for his second goal of the recent run, with Richard Prieto as the focal point up top against a physical Olimpia defense.
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Olimpia Asuncion. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Olimpia’s unbeaten run and superior attacking output make them the deserved favourites, but Nacional’s recent dominance in this exact fixture, winning five of the last ten, keeps us cautious about a straight home bet. We predict Olimpia edge this one narrowly or share the points, backing Olimpia Double Chance combined with both teams scoring as the smarter play. Both sides have shown they can score and both have leaked goals in recent weeks, so a tight, open derby feels the most likely script, perhaps settled by a single moment of quality from Ávalos or Meza.
