Sofia Quijada
Nueva Chicago host Atletico Rafaela at the Estadio Nueva Chicago in Mataderos in a mid-table Primera Nacional clash that carries genuine weight for both sides. Separated by just one point in the standings, 13th-place Nueva Chicago (17 pts) and 16th-place Rafaela (16 pts) both need the three points to stay in touch with the promotion race. The most telling piece of context here is the previous H2H meeting in 2024, where Nueva Chicago dismantled Rafaela 5-1, a scoreline that shows just how lopsided this fixture can get when the hosts are on form.
Midfielder-driven Nueva Chicago relies heavily on set-piece situations and disciplined buildup, and their most consistent threat comes through their ability to control tempo at home. For Rafaela, the danger man is whoever leads their pressing line, as Iván Juárez’s side scored four goals against Agropecuario recently, showing they are capable of attacking bursts even if they lack consistency.
Hot stat: Atletico Rafaela put four goals past Agropecuario in their last five matches, making them the more recently prolific side offensively, yet they followed that up with back-to-back losses to Club Atletico Guemes and San Martin Tucuman.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera Nacional 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Nueva Chicago, Mataderos, Argentina |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Nueva Chicago vs Atletico Rafaela Prediction
Nueva Chicago are the clear home favourites at approximately 43% win probability according to bookmaker averages, and the odds from Bovada and Rocketplay (around 2.10-2.15) reflect decent value for a home win. Their form over the last 30 days reads W-D-L, which is modest, but at home they carry more weight, and their overall year stats (5W in 16 matches) are slightly weaker than Rafaela’s (7W in 18), though Rafaela’s away record is inconsistent.
We predict a Nueva Chicago win. The home advantage at Mataderos, combined with Rafaela’s poor away consistency and the historical 5-1 H2H result, tips the balance toward the hosts. Rafaela’s recent form shows they concede in bunches when exposed, and Nueva Chicago’s disciplined home setup should capitalize on that.
Rafaela tend to press high and commit bodies forward, which leaves them exposed on the counter. Nueva Chicago under Germán Lanaro sit compact and look to hit on transitions, a style that suits this match perfectly. Rafaela’s yellow card tendency when frustrated could also open up free-kick opportunities for the home side.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Nueva Chicago to win both halves |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Nueva Chicago’s last five matches tell the story of a side that grinds rather than dazzles. They drew 0-0 with both Colegiales and Quilmes, then drew 2-2 with Midland, beat Atletico Atlanta 2-1, and most recently lost 1-2 to Patronato. The Patronato defeat is the only real blemish in a stretch where they were largely competitive. Their scoring has been low-volume but they’ve kept themselves in most games, and at home they have only lost twice this season across 11 matches.
Atletico Rafaela’s recent five-match run is more volatile. They beat Agropecuario 4-1, a convincing performance, but sandwiched around it were draws against Tristan Suarez and Gimnasia Jujuy, a loss to Club Atletico Guemes, and most recently a 1-2 defeat to San Martin Tucuman. That San Martin loss is telling since Tucuman are not among the top sides, and it confirms Rafaela’s inconsistency. Their 4-1 win inflates their recent attacking numbers, but the underlying pattern is fragile.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Nueva Chicago | Atletico Rafaela |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 1 |
| Total shots | N/A | N/A |
| Free kicks | N/A | N/A |
| Corner kicks | N/A | N/A |
| Total fouls | N/A | N/A |
| Pass accuracy (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Interceptions | N/A | N/A |
| Offsides | N/A | N/A |
🚨 Check out our dedicated Nueva Chicago vs Atletico Rafaela stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Nueva Chicago the Favourite
- Moneyline Nueva Chicago 2.12 (avg) | Atletico Rafaela 3.66 (avg)
- Draw 2.64 (avg)
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The Nueva Chicago moneyline at around 2.10-2.15 offers solid value given the home advantage, the H2H history, and Rafaela’s away inconsistency. The draw at 2.64 is tempting given both teams’ tendency to play cautious football, but we lean toward the hosts breaking through at home. Rafaela at 3.66 feels too short for a side that has lost three of their last five matches.
Possible Starting Lineups
Nueva Chicago Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nahuel Pezzini
- DF: Nicolás Gredicak, Matías Fritzler, Facundo Castet, Rodrigo Insúa
- MF: Nicolás Morgantini, Gonzalo Berterame, Ezequiel Ham, Tomás Molina
- FW: Nicolás Miracco, Ezequiel Vidal
Germán Lanaro is expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1 or compact 4-4-2 shape, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. With detailed roster data unavailable, this lineup is constructed from the club’s known registered players and typical usage patterns this season. The wide midfielders are key to pressing Rafaela’s fullbacks and forcing them into errors, and the striker pairing should look to exploit any high defensive line from the visitors.
Atletico Rafaela Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Facundo Tagliamonte
- DF: Cristian Chimino, Leandro Marín, Emiliano Agüero, Franco Niell
- MF: Rodrigo Aliendro, Tomás Molina, Gonzalo Morales, Mauro Albertengo
- FW: Nicolás Laméndola, Mauro Maidana
Iván Juárez typically deploys Rafaela in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, with an emphasis on pressing and quick vertical play. Their 4-1 win over Agropecuario showed what they can do when the press clicks, but away from home that structure tends to leave gaps. Aliendro in the midfield pivot is the player to watch as he dictates tempo, and if Nueva Chicago can neutralize him early, Rafaela’s attacking options become limited.
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Nueva Chicago. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Nueva Chicago enter this match as the justified favourites. They are at home, they demolished Rafaela 5-1 in the only available H2H record, and Rafaela arrive having lost their last league match to a mid-table side. Nueva Chicago’s year stats (31% winrate) are lower than Rafaela’s (39%), but that gap narrows significantly when isolating home performance, where the hosts have only dropped two matches all season.
Rafaela’s 4-1 win over Agropecuario is the only real argument for backing them here, and Agropecuario sit near the bottom of the table. We predict a Nueva Chicago win, with both teams scoring. The hosts should control possession and create the majority of chances, while Rafaela’s attacking ambition means they will likely find the net at least once on the counter. A scoreline of 2-1 to Nueva Chicago fits the pattern of this fixture well.
