Levi Rothermund
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NSI Runavik host Lugano in the second leg of their UEFA Conference League Third Qualifying Round tie on 13 August 2026. The Faroese side face a steep climb after losing the first leg 0-2 in Switzerland, and Lugano arrive knowing a draw or a win sends them through. Runavik have shown they can score at home, netting seven against Koper in a recent league outing, but that same defensive vulnerability makes this a tricky affair to call for the home side.
Keep an eye on Kevin Behrens for Lugano, who has bagged seven goals across his last six matches and leads the Swiss side’s attack with real authority. For NSI Runavik, Beinir Nolsøe has been their most active contributor in midfield, combining goal threat with defensive work rate, and he will need a big performance if the Faroese are to mount any kind of comeback.
Hot stat: Lugano have scored 20 goals across their last five matches, averaging four per game, which is a striking run of form heading into this second leg.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
NSI Runavik vs Lugano Prediction
Lugano hold a 2-0 aggregate lead and have been in exceptional form over the past 30 days, winning seven of their last eight matches. They are not a side that sits on leads either — their recent 5-0 demolition of Zurich and a 4-1 win over Grasshopper show they continue to press and attack even when results are already in their favor. Runavik need to score at least twice without conceding, which is a tall order given their defensive record and Lugano’s firepower.
NSI Runavik average just 3.6 goals across their last five matches while conceding heavily in recent European outings. Their pass accuracy sits at a modest 74% compared to Lugano’s 88%, and the Swiss side’s 55 interceptions versus Runavik’s 12 tells you everything about how these two teams press and recover the ball differently. Lugano’s 5-4-1 setup is built to absorb pressure and transition quickly, and with the aggregate cushion in their pocket, Croci-Torti’s side will be patient and clinical.
We think Lugano win this comfortably and progress. The most interesting angle here is the total goals market — both teams have shown they can score, and Lugano are not the type to park the bus even with a lead.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lugano to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
NSI Runavik come into this match having won their most recent outing, a 4-0 home victory over Skala Itrottarfelag in the Faroese Premier League. That result restored some confidence after a 1-3 defeat to Torshavn that exposed their defensive fragility. Their domestic form over the last 30 days reads three wins and three losses, which reflects a side that can be brilliant one week and porous the next. In European competition, Runavik have struggled to replicate their domestic scoring exploits — the 7-4 win over Koper was an anomaly, and the 0-2 first leg defeat to Lugano was a more honest representation of the gap between the two clubs. Their 3-4-1-2 formation gives them attacking width but leaves the back three exposed against quick transitions.
Lugano’s form is simply exceptional right now. Their last five matches have produced 20 goals, including a 5-0 thrashing of Zurich, 4-1 against Grasshopper, 5-1 against Dukagjini, and 2-1 over Vaduz. The 2-0 win over NSI Runavik in the first leg was actually one of their more controlled performances, suggesting they were never troubled enough to open up fully. Kevin Behrens leads the line with seven goals in six matches, and Elias Pihlstrom adds three more from wide areas. The 5-4-1 shape gives Lugano defensive solidity while allowing the full-backs and midfielders to push forward in numbers. Over the last 30 days, they have won seven of eight matches, with their only loss being an outlier in a busy schedule.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have only faced each other in this current UEFA Conference League qualifying tie. The first leg in Switzerland gave Lugano a clean 2-0 victory.
| Statistic | NSI Runavik | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated NSI Runavik vs Lugano stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Lugano the Favourite
- Moneyline NSI Runavik 8.00–10.00 | Lugano 1.24–1.31
- Draw 4.80–5.50
- Over/Under Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes | No
The market is firmly behind Lugano, and honestly, it is hard to argue. Odds in the 1.24–1.31 range reflect a side that is expected to win with a degree of comfort, and given the aggregate score and recent form, that pricing feels fair. The draw market sitting around 5.00–5.50 is inflated by the first-leg context — a draw here would still see Lugano through. We think the value, if there is any, sits in the goals markets rather than the outright winner lines. BTTS at yes is worth considering given Runavik’s attacking intent at home and Lugano’s tendency to keep scoring regardless of the scoreline.
NSI Runavik. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
NSI Runavik Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Tom Amos
- DF: Jann Benjaminsen, Daniel Obbekjaer, Viljormur Davidsen
- MF: Beinir Nolsøe, Sammy Skytte, Alex Freyr Elisson
- FW: Michał Przybylski, Klaemint Olsen, Tobias Hestad, Petur Knudsen
Runavik’s 3-4-1-2 shape relies on the wing-backs to provide width and service. Tom Amos has been the regular between the posts with 12 saves across recent matches. Beinir Nolsøe is the player to watch — he contributes both defensively and going forward, and with a goal already this run, he will be key if Runavik are to threaten Lugano’s backline. Michał Przybylski adds a goal threat up front. The back three of Benjaminsen, Obbekjaer, and Davidsen will be tested severely by Lugano’s fluid attack.
Lugano Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: David von Ballmoos
- DF: Mattia Zanotti, Lars Lukas Mai, Antonios Papadopoulos, Hannes Delcroix, Joel Bichsel
- MF: Uran Bislimi, Anto Grgic, Yanis Cimignani, Ahmed Kendouci
- FW: Kevin Behrens
Lugano’s 5-4-1 system is organized and hard to break down, with David von Ballmoos commanding the goal and 11 saves across recent games. Mattia Zanotti is an interesting figure — he has picked up four assists from the right side of defense, showing how much Lugano’s fullbacks contribute offensively. Kevin Behrens leads the line as the focal point and, with seven goals in six appearances, is the obvious danger man. Anto Grgic pulls the strings from deep with three assists and consistently high pass accuracy, making him the engine of Lugano’s buildup play.
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Lugano. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Lugano should win this second leg without serious difficulty. They carry a 2-0 aggregate lead, they are in the best form of any team in this qualifying round based on recent results, and their squad depth dwarfs what NSI Runavik can offer. The Faroese side showed in their 7-4 win over Koper that they can score, so we think both teams finding the net is a realistic outcome — Runavik will push forward out of necessity, which opens space for Lugano to exploit on the counter.
We back Lugano to win this match and progress. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the markets we find most compelling. Lugano to score in both halves is maybe the sharpest pick given how this tie is set up and the Swiss side’s consistency in front of goal across all competitions.
