Novorizontino vs Santos Prediction: 22.02.2026 Campeonato Paulista Série A1 Quarterfinals Preview

As the Campeonato Paulista Série A1 Quarterfinals get underway, Novorizontino and Santos are set to deliver a tactical showdown at Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase. Both sides have showcased contrasting momentum in 2026: Novorizontino enters with considerable home fortitude, while Santos, despite their legendary stature, have stuttered in execution lately.
What adds an extra dimension to this contest is the coaching duel between Enderson Moreira and Juan Pablo Vojvoda, two tacticians renowned for coaxing discipline and organization, evident in their evenly-matched recent encounters. With the pressure of a single-elimination scenario, attention turns to the reliability of key architects in midfield and attack, where games of this magnitude are so often won and lost.

Among the many threats, keep an eye on Novorizontino’s Juninho, whose subtle late runs and recent goal involvement offer a cutting edge from midfield, while Santos’s Gabriel Barbosa Almeida is expected to lead the line with dynamism, having scored twice in his last four appearances. Notably, both goalkeepers—Jordi for Novorizontino and Gabriel Brazão for Santos—have pulled off crucial saves in recent fixtures, underlining their importance under knockout pressure.

What stands out statistically ahead of this clash? Santos has found the net an impressive 10 times in their last five matches, doubling Novorizontino’s tally over the same period—a testament to their attacking upside, even when results haven’t consistently followed.

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Novorizontino vs Santos Prediction

The best value prediction for this quarterfinal is “Both Teams To Score – Yes”. While Novorizontino’s home record and disciplined back line evoke confidence, Santos’s recent attacking figures—10 goals from 61 shots in the last 5 games—cannot be overlooked. Add to that Novorizontino’s five different scorers recently and it’s apparent both sides possess the ingenuity to break down the opposition.

The anticipated tactical chess match will hinge on moments of transition and set-piece proficiency, as both squads average well over four corners per game and win numerous free kicks. However, discipline may play a pivotal role: Santos has accumulated 14 yellow cards and one red card across their last five matches—more than double Novorizontino’s numbers. With both teams employing a 4-2-3-1 and looking to edge midfield supremacy, we should see an open match but with controlled aggression, where fullbacks play a major role both offensively and defensively.

Team Analysis

Novorizontino Recent Games:
Novorizontino demonstrated excellent resilience in the last five matches, achieving three wins and a draw before suffering a heavy 0-3 defeat to Bragantino in their most recent fixture. That loss brought a dose of reality, exposing vulnerability to well-organized, high-powered attacks. However, their earlier 4-0 demolition of Palmeiras showcased their strength in exploiting defensive gaps and executing swift attacking transitions. Their midfield, anchored by Oyama and Bianqui, has been adept at retaining possession and distributing under pressure, while Juninho’s energy and Robson’s purposeful wide-play are keys to their attacking threat.

Santos Recent Games:
Santos’s form line has been inconsistent: a dominant 6-0 triumph over Velo Clube was tempered by a 1-2 setback against Athletico PR. Notably, their attacking metrics remain impressive—averaging over two goals per match in the last five—and Alvaro Barreal’s work rate on the left continues to torment defenders. That said, their increased yellow card count and occasional loss of defensive structure have resulted in dropped points. The draw against Sao Paulo (1-1) further highlighted Santos’s tenacity in big-game scenarios. Under Vojvoda’s guidance, expect Santos to push high and control central areas, but they must be wary of Novorizontino’s rapid counter-attacks.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Novorizontino vs Santos stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Santos the favourite

• Moneyline Novorizontino 2.93 | Santos 2.59
• Draw 3.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.25 | Under 2.5 1.60
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.87 | No 2.00

Santos’s slight edge with bookmakers (36 percent win probability versus 33 percent for Novorizontino) reflects their historical pedigree and current offensive output. The value on a draw is notable, given the competitive balance in recent head-to-heads. Over 2.5 goals carries upside with two open, transition-favoring teams. “Both teams to score” is rightly favored—each capable of unlocking the other’s defense, but Novorizontino’s defensive discipline and home support may prevent an outright Santos win.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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My take on the Match

I favor “Both Teams To Score – Yes” as the most balanced prediction. Novorizontino’s cohesion at home, especially with Juninho’s form and Moreira’s defensive acumen, should ensure at least one breakthrough. However, Santos’s offensive structure—with Barreal, Barbosa Almeida, and strong midfield link play—suggests they will test Jordi repeatedly. Expect tactical discipline battling creative sparks, with individual brilliance on both sides ultimately preventing a shutout. A 1-2 or 2-2 scoreline feels within reach, but it’s the volatility and abundant quality in the final third that make both teams to score the standout play.

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