Novorizontino vs Guarani Prediction: 14.01.2026 Campeonato Paulista Série A1 Preview

As the Campeonato Paulista Série A1 returns for another captivating season, Novorizontino hosts Guarani at Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase in Novo Horizonte. Both teams are in search of their first victory of the 2026 campaign after less-than-ideal opening matches. With contrasting tactical setups – Novorizontino adopting a 4-2-3-1 under Enderson Moreira and Guarani sticking to Matheus Costa’s tried-and-true 4-4-2 – this encounter represents an intriguing early test of ambition and resilience. Notably, Novorizontino’s midfield playmaker Luís Oyama and Guarani’s versatile defender Raphael Rodrigues Borges will be under the spotlight, each set to have significant influence over their side’s attacking rhythm and defensive solidity.

An interesting stat from previous fixtures is that both teams registered 13 total shots in their latest matches – suggesting both squads are generating chances but struggling to convert in front of goal.

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Novorizontino vs Guarani prediction

The highest value in this fixture lies with backing Novorizontino, particularly via the Asian Handicap –0.75 or simply a home win. The odds for Novorizontino hover around 1.68-1.70 and rightly so, given their superior home form throughout last season and Guarani’s struggle to convert draws into wins. Novorizontino are adept at controlling possession (268 total passes in the last match, 198 completed) and have shown a slight edge in ball circulation, which bodes well against a Guarani side that tends to be more direct but less assertive in possession.

Novorizontino favor a pragmatic approach with disciplined lines and calculated pressing, reflected in their lower foul count (6 in the last match) and just one yellow card – indicating organized defensive work. On the other hand, Guarani committed a staggering 17 fouls and picked up two yellow cards, a symptom of their aggressive midfield duels that can quickly turn into a liability against fast combinations. This difference in style suggests Novorizontino can dictate the tempo, exploit set pieces, and force Guarani into uncomfortable defensive situations. Consequently, Guarani’s 4-4-2 may struggle with midfield overloads, which is where Novorizontino can press their positional advantage.

Team Analysis

Novorizontino enters this match after a narrow 1-2 defeat against Santos, a clash where their tactical discipline shone despite the scoreline. The side generated 13 shots and controlled much of the central third (268 passes), though defensive lapses cost them at crucial moments. Statistically, their passing accuracy at 198 and just 6 fouls reflect a clean and composed build-up, while the seven corners earned suggest potency in set-piece creation. Recent form has been unstable (d-w-w-w-d-l-w-w-d-d-d-l-w-l), so a quick turnaround is essential if Enderson Moreira’s men wish to push for playoff contention.

Guarani, meanwhile, played out a 1-1 draw with Primavera in their opener, a match loaded with intensity and physical contests. Guarani matched Novorizontino’s shot output (13), but their heavily physical play was clear with 17 fouls and two players yellow carded. Despite the defensive grit, Guarani’s build-up play needs refinement – pass counts are lower (245 attempted) and accuracy modest (183 completed), making them vulnerable against teams with a disciplined press. Guarani remain a team in transition, seeking a better blend between robustness and creativity, as seen across their recent inconsistent pattern (d-l-l-d-w-w-w-d-l-w-w-l-d-l-d).

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🚨Read our full Novorizontino vs Guarani stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Novorizontino the favourite

• Moneyline Novorizontino 1.70 | Guarani 5.20
• Draw 3.30
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.12 | Under 2.5 1.67
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.07 | No 1.72

These odds reflect both Novorizontino’s status as hosts and the general expectation that they can capitalize on Guarani’s physical, yet inconsistent, away form. The relatively short price on under 2.5 goals suggests bookmakers are wary of both teams’ recent bluntness in front of goal. The “Both Teams To Score: No” line also looks smart given Guarani’s struggles to create clear chances and Novorizontino’s disciplined shape.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Novorizontino possible starting eleven

• GK: Jordi
• DF: Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas, Alexis Alvarino, Eduardo Brock, Robson
• MF: Luís Oyama, Matheus Henrique Bianqui, Jean, Juninho
• FW: Airton, Nicolas Morês da Cruz

This lineup maximizes experienced campaigners and recent regulars, especially in the midfield, where Luís Oyama orchestrates play and provides the main creative spark. The defense remains disciplined, with Alexis Alvarino and Patrick Marcos lending both size and composure. Expect a 4-2-3-1 that seeks early control and quick transitions.

Guarani possible starting eleven

• GK: Caique França
• DF: Jonathan Aparecido, Rafael Donato, Willian Farias, Raphael Rodrigues Borges
• MF: Isaque, Nathan, Ralf, Neuciano Cicinho
• FW: Lucca, Guilherme Parede

Guarani’s possible XI offers experience in defense and physicality in midfield. Raphael Rodrigues Borges, after scoring in the recent match, adds attacking threat from fullback. The likely 4-4-2 leans on Lucca for creativity and leadership up-front, but the midfield must avoid costly cards and control transitions to match Novorizontino’s energy.

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My take on the Match

With both sides eager to register their first win, the encounter promises intensity and tactical chess. Novorizontino’s balance and home advantage, complemented by their structured midfield and reliable passing, give them the edge over a Guarani still searching for attacking sharpness and midfield cohesion. My main pick is Novorizontino to win with a –0.75 Asian Handicap – a bet backed by their organization and Guarani’s tendency to lose discipline under pressure. Expect a hard-fought but ultimately professional display from the home team with a likely 2-0 scoreline.

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