Novorizontino vs Criciuma Prediction: 22 July 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

Criciuma sit top of the Série B table with 29 points from 15 matches, while Novorizontino are 12th with 16 points from 12 games. The gap in current form is stark: Criciuma have won all four matches in the last 30 days, whereas Novorizontino have taken just one win from three, losing the other two. Defender Marcelo Hermes is arguably the most dangerous player on the pitch — the full-back has scored three goals across the last five Criciuma fixtures, an extraordinary return from a defensive position. For the hosts, forward Robson leads the attack with two goals and one assist in his last three appearances and will need to be sharp if Novorizontino are to threaten the league leaders.

Hot stat: Criciuma’s Waguininho has registered 10 offsides across just four recent matches, suggesting the forward is constantly pushing the defensive line and creating stretch in opposition backlines — a useful pressure tool even when the flag goes up.

Novorizontino vs Criciuma Prediction

Criciuma are the strongest side in this division right now, and their away record backs that up. They have won four straight, kept disciplined defensive shape, and outshot opponents consistently over the last five games with 53 total shots to Novorizontino’s 45. The visitors’ pass volume (1,363 passes vs. 1,156 for Novorizontino) and accuracy advantage point to a team that controls games positively.

Novorizontino have been inconsistent at home this season — four wins, four draws, and four losses from 12 league matches. Their recent form includes back-to-back defeats, including a 1-2 home loss to Operario PR (ranked 10,124 in world clubs) and a 0-1 defeat to Fortaleza. Enderson Moreira’s side play a 3-4-3 that can be attack-minded, but they have conceded in several recent outings and their defensive structure has been porous.

Criciuma commit significantly more fouls (58 vs. 37 over the last five) and have picked up 12 yellow cards to Novorizontino’s four, meaning Eduardo Baptista’s side will need to stay disciplined. Novorizontino’s low foul count and measured pressing style under a 3-4-3 could generate set-piece opportunities, but Criciuma’s 46 interceptions (vs. 27) show they are far more aggressive in disrupting play. We predict Criciuma to win this match, with the visitors backing up their table-topping form on the road.

• Main Tip: Criciuma to Win (Away Win)
• Total Goals: Over 1.5
• Both Teams to Score: No
• Total Corners: Over 7.5

Team Analysis

Novorizontino’s last five results show a team that is capable but inconsistent. They opened that stretch with a 3-0 win over Atletico Goianiense and a 2-1 victory against Ceara, showing attacking quality. A 2-2 draw at home to Chapecoense interrupted momentum, and back-to-back losses to Operario PR (1-2) and Fortaleza (0-1) followed. The Fortaleza defeat is particularly telling — Novorizontino were held scoreless against a side ranked 179th in the world. Their attack generated just nine shots in that game, and the team failed to convert any of their set-piece opportunities across the five-match sample (0 free kick goals from 48 attempts).

Criciuma’s recent run is one of the best in the division. They beat Avai 2-1, edged Sao Bernardo 1-0, defeated Sport Recife 1-0, overcame Ponte Preta 2-1, and most recently downed Vila Nova 2-0 — five wins from five. Their defensive solidity stands out: four clean sheets in that run, with the one goal conceded coming in the Avai fixture. Rómulo Otero has been creative from midfield (nine shots, 13 free kick attempts over four games), while Marcelo Hermes provides a constant goal threat from left back. Criciuma’s 20 corner kicks generated across five games also reflects how often they pin opponents back.

🚨 Check out our dedicated Novorizontino vs Criciuma stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Criciuma the Favourite

• Moneyline Novorizontino 2.21 | Criciuma 3.50
• Draw 3.07
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —

The bookmakers’ average gives Criciuma only a 27% win probability, which looks undervalued given their current form and league position. Novorizontino at 2.21 reflect home advantage, but recent results at the Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase stadium do not justify that confidence — four losses at home this season and consecutive defeats heading into this fixture. The draw at 3.07 is fair but Criciuma’s defensive record in recent weeks makes a share of the points unlikely. To be honest, Criciuma at 3.50 represents the strongest value in this market.

Possible Starting Lineups

Novorizontino Possible Starting Eleven

Novorizontino are expected to line up in their preferred 3-4-3, though the data suggests a more compact 3-4-2-1 shape in recent games. Jordi is the first-choice goalkeeper, with Patrick Marcos, Eduardo Brock, and Nilson Castrillón forming the back three. Luís Oyama is the key midfield link — one goal and strong pass accuracy over three games — and Robson is the main attacking threat up front. Coach Enderson Moreira will need more from the wide channels to stretch Criciuma’s defensive block.

Criciuma Possible Starting Eleven

Criciuma deploy a 4-2-3-1 that has been highly effective across five recent wins. Airton starts in goal, supported by a back four anchored by Luciano Castan and Willean Bernardo, both of whom bring interception numbers and aerial presence. Marcelo Hermes at left back is the standout name — three goals from defense in five games is exceptional. Rómulo Otero operates as the attacking midfielder pulling strings, while Waguininho offers constant movement in behind. Eduardo Baptista has a settled, confident squad to pick from.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Criciuma are the form team in Série B and carry every statistical advantage into this fixture. Their defensive record over the last five games is exceptional — four clean sheets, just one goal conceded — and their ability to control possession (1,363 passes per five games) will be a real problem for a Novorizontino side that has struggled to find consistency at home. The hosts’ attack has talent in Robson and Oyama, but their inability to score from set pieces (0 from 48 free kicks) and their poor recent run make a home win hard to back at any price.

We predict Criciuma to win this match, with the away side likely keeping a clean sheet. The “Criciuma to Win to Nil” market offers the best value, supported by Criciuma’s defensive form and Novorizontino’s recent scoring struggles against organized opposition. Over 7.5 corners is also a reasonable secondary bet given both teams’ active pressing styles and Criciuma’s habit of pinning opponents into their own half.

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