Rafael Nogueira
Novorizontino hosts Ceará in Novo Horizonte with both teams sitting on 13 points after nine matches. This clash features two sides in similar league positions, but Novorizontino enjoy a far higher bookmakers’ win probability and home advantage. The spotlight shines on Novorizontino’s attacking midfielder Robson, who scored twice in his last three games, and Ceará’s versatile defender Éder, a distribution anchor with high passing stats. These two could influence both ends of the pitch.
The hot stat: Ceará have fired off 77 shots in their last five games, nearly double Novorizontino’s output, underlining their direct attacking intent despite a poor conversion rate.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, Novo Horizonte |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Novorizontino vs Ceará prediction
We predict a home win for Novorizontino. Their strong home performances, higher win probability (43% vs Ceará’s 25%), and tighter defense make them the favored side. Novorizontino have only conceded twice at home in their last three, while Ceará’s away form is unconvincing, with five defeats in their last eight outings.
Novorizontino play a structured 4-2-3-1, favoring quick transitions and a compact midfield, often absorbing pressure and breaking forward. Ceará use the same formation but rely on direct play and volume shooting. Novorizontino’s lower foul and card numbers indicate better discipline; Ceará’s higher foul count (69 in 5 matches) and two red cards show more risk in disrupting their own rhythm, possibly handing set-piece chances to Novorizontino.
A low-scoring affair looks likely, with both teams averaging barely a goal per game recently, but Novorizontino’s efficiency at home and Ceará’s shot inefficiency tilt the edge further toward the hosts.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Under 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Novorizontino’s latest match ended in a 0-2 loss at home to Chapecoense, a game where they struggled for attacking spark, registering just a handful of shots and failing to break through a well-organized defense. Defensive lapses led to conceding twice, breaking a decent run.
Their prior results show a balanced side: 1-0 over Botafogo SP and a 2-1 win over Volta Redonda, but a tendency for draws and low-scoring games persists.
Ceará also come off a defeat, losing 1-2 at home to Fortaleza. Their defensive vulnerabilities were exposed again, and despite 77 shots in five matches, they’ve netted just four, highlighting poor finishing.
Their form line shows four straight losses prior to their last win, with defensive instability and discipline issues – two red cards in their last five – costing them points.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Novorizontino | Ceará |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 4 |
| Total shots | 36 | 77 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 5 |
| Corner kicks | 14 | 32 |
| Total fouls | 45 | 69 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 75.6 | 85.5 |
| Interceptions | 18 | 23 |
| Offsides | 5 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Novorizontino vs Ceará stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Novorizontino the favourite
- Moneyline Novorizontino 2.12 | Ceará 3.70
- Draw 2.93
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.50 | Under 2.5 1.55
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.15 | No 1.65
Novorizontino command clear favoritism from bookmakers, reflecting home advantage and Ceará’s poor away form. The low price on Under 2.5 goals mirrors both teams’ recent lack of firepower and preference for risk-averse football. “No” on BTTS carries value as both defenses typically dominate, with neither team prolific up front.
Possible Starting Lineups
Novorizontino possible starting eleven
- GK: César
- DF: Carlinhos, Maykon Kesley, Patrick Marcos, Nilson Castrillón
- MF: Leonardo Naldi, Juninho, Marlon, Matheus Henrique Bianqui
- FW: Robson, Carlos Henrique
This selection mirrors their frequent 4-2-3-1 structure. César anchors the defense, with Carlinhos and Maykon Kesley providing width. Leonardo Naldi and Juninho link midfield to attack. Robson’s recent scoring form gives him the nod, with Carlos Henrique leading the line. Robson is the player to watch, capable of turning half-chances into goals.
Ceará possible starting eleven
- GK: Bruno
- DF: Éder, Luiz Otávio, Rafael Ramos, Fernando Augusto
- MF: Matheus Araujo, Lucas Lima, Richardson, Juan
- FW: Fernandinho, Alex da Silva
Ceará likely stick with their 4-2-3-1, favoring experience at the back with Éder and Luiz Otávio. Matheus Araujo and Lucas Lima set the tempo in midfield, while Alex da Silva’s recent goal marks him as a threat in the box. Watch for Éder’s passing and defensive organization.
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Ceara. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Novorizontino to take all three points in a low-scoring contest. Ceará’s direct style produces shots but lacks finishing. Novorizontino’s discipline and home solidity give them the edge. Under 2.5 goals and BTTS “No” are high-probability outcomes, while Robson’s form might settle the game.
