Rafael Nogueira
Novorizontino faces Athletic Club in a crucial Campeonato Brasileiro Série B regular-season encounter at Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, Novo Horizonte, on September 20th, 2025. With both clubs chasing points for different ambitions, this matchup carries significant weight for the top and middle of the table. Notably, Novorizontino’s home advantage and their recent resilience will be measured against an Athletic Club side showing incremental improvements under Rui Duarte.
While Novorizontino’s attack will look toward winger Nathan and versatile forward Waguininho for breakthroughs, Athletic Club’s creative pulse comes from midfielder David Francisco Trindade Braga and defensive solidity from Douglas da Silva Santos. These players’ current form and adaptability stand out as decisive factors for their respective teams.
Hot stat: Athletic Club have managed to score 6 goals in their last 5 matches, displaying a growing attacking sharpness even against higher-rated opponents. Their recent form is superior to Novorizontino’s, indicating a team not to be underestimated.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2025 – Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, Novo Horizonte |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.09.2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
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Novorizontino vs Athletic Club prediction
The clearest value rests on Novorizontino, harnessing home field advantage and a more balanced setup despite erratic recent results. Their tactical discipline and slightly superior defense should edge this contest. Nevertheless, the visitors’ uptick in both scoring and defensive discipline signals potential pitfalls for complacency.
Novorizontino post a better ball retention in recent matches, evidenced by higher pass accuracy percentages, whereas Athletic Club compensate with robust interceptions and a higher fouls count (56 fouls to Novorizontino’s 64 in the last 5 games). Both sides have incurred moderate yellow card numbers, with Athletic Club’s 14 in 5 games pointing to a physical, disruptive style. Expect this will slow Novorizontino’s rhythm, narrowing margins and possibly reducing goal volume if discipline holds.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Novorizontino -0.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Novorizontino have recently broken an uninspiring stretch (1W 1D 2L in last 4) with a gutsy 2-1 win over Ferroviaria. They controlled possession phases and generated 25 corners across their last five matches, signaling offensive intent even if finishing has lagged. Notably, their defensive shape, often a 4-2-3-1 under Enderson Moreira, with César Martins and Rafael Donato central, provides a reliable base yet suffered lapses late on against Athletico PR and Criciuma. If their midfield (Frizzo and Oyama) can dictate tempo, their home form holds strong potential to secure all points.
Athletic Club are bouncing back from a heavy loss to Chapecoense (0-4) with better composure, including a 2-0 victory over Botafogo SP and consistent scoring in four of the last five matches. Manager Rui Duarte’s trust in a 4-2-3-1 maximizes the movement of Sandry and attacking threat of Neto Costa. Despite a tendency for physical duels and yellow cards, their improved pass accuracy and pressing have yielded vital draws (1-1 vs Vila Nova, Criciuma). With confidence rebuilding and organization tightening in midfield, Athletic Club have proven tricky opponents to break down recently.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Novorizontino | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 10 | 8 |
| Free kicks | 11 | 9 |
| Corner kicks | 7 | 4 |
| Total fouls | 13 | 16 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 87 | 80 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 13 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
🚨Read our full Novorizontino vs Athletic Club stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Novorizontino the favourite
- Moneyline Novorizontino 1.86 | Athletic Club 4.60
- Draw 3.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.28 | Under 2.5 1.61
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.03 | No 1.80
Bookmakers see Novorizontino as clear favorites, largely justified by their home track record and season consistency. The value on Under 2.5 goals is strong, with Athletic Club inclined toward defensive first halves. Both teams to score “No” aligns with previous H2H and recent scoring trends, as Athletic Club have been resolute at the back but rarely prolific away.
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Possible Starting Lineups
Novorizontino possible starting eleven
- GK: Jordi
- DF: César Martins, Rafael Ferreira Donato, Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas, Mayk Van Van
- MF: Romulo, Fábio Matheus Ribeiro Lima, Matheus Frizzo, Jean
- FW: Waguininho, Nathan
This is a familiar 4-2-3-1 setup for Novorizontino, striking a balance between defensive assurance (Donato and César Martins in central defense) and offensive variety. Pay particular attention to the fullbacks Mayk Van Van and Patrick Freitas, who will be vital for stretching play. In midfield, Romulo organizes transitions, while Frizzo’s creativity will be pivotal in unlocking Athletic’s disciplined block. Up front, Nathan and Waguininho bring both work rate and vertical threat—the latter having recently found the net. This lineup is built for structure and quick transitions, key for capitalizing at home.
Athletic Club possible starting eleven
- GK: Adriel
- DF: Douglas da Silva Santos, Sidimar, Rodrigo Silva Nascimento, Marcelo
- MF: Sandry, David Francisco·Trindade Braga, Maswel Ananias Silva, Yuri
- FW: Neto Costa
Athletic Club are expected to stick with their favored 4-2-3-1. Adriel is a secure presence in goal, while Douglas and Sidimar solidify the defense. Sandry will act as a pivotal two-way player, covering ground and winning second balls, as the attack leans on David Trindade Braga’s composure and Neto Costa’s movement upfront. The midfield is functional and compact, aiming to disrupt Novorizontino’s attempts to maneuver centrally before looking to counter through wide spaces.
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Athletic Club. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
The Verdict
My main pick is Novorizontino to secure all three points with a narrow margin. Their defensive structure and home support should outweigh Athletic Club’s recent scoring uptick. Expect a game dominated by tactical discipline, with Novorizontino seeking patient breakthroughs and Athletic Club relying on midfield resilience and quick counterattacks. While the visitors have shown improvement, the home side’s ability to convert set pieces and maintain defensive order looks set to be decisive. I foresee a 1-0 or possibly 2-0 result, mirroring the recent head-to-head, underlining Novorizontino’s edge in big moments this campaign.
