Liam Duckstein
Two familiar foes in English lower-league football cross paths yet again as Notts County welcome Chesterfield to Meadow Lane for the crucial second leg of the EFL League Two Semifinals. The Magpies hold a slender lead after a 1-0 win in the first leg, but the tie remains finely balanced. This is more than just a local clash; promotion ambitions are on the line and both teams enter with something to prove.
A matchup of this magnitude often turns on individual brilliance. For Notts County, Jodi Jones stands out—his ability to find the net and unlock defenses could be the difference. Chesterfield’s Lee Bonis, with three goals in his last three matches, provides a constant threat up front, and his recent form could easily swing the tie. Both sides will rely heavily on their respective shot-stoppers—James Belshaw for Notts County and Ryan Boot for Chesterfield—each capable of making game-changing saves.
Hot stat: Chesterfield have outperformed Notts County in total shots and corners over the last five matches—41 shots and 14 corners, compared to Notts County’s 27 shots and 6 corners. This signals the Spireites’ attacking intent, even when playing away.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL League Two 2025/26 Semifinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Meadow Lane, Nottingham |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Notts County vs Chesterfield prediction
We predict a tight, competitive encounter with both teams likely to create opportunities, but Notts County have the edge. Home advantage at Meadow Lane and a slightly more consistent recent run suggest the Magpies will do enough to progress. Chesterfield’s strong shot volume and aggressive play style—evidenced by their higher foul and yellow card count—show a willingness to push forward but sometimes at the cost of defensive stability. Notts County’s slightly better pass accuracy and lower foul rate give them a small edge in keeping control under pressure.
Expect a physical contest. Chesterfield average 6.4 fouls and a yellow card per match over the last five games, while Notts County sit at 5.6 fouls and less than a yellow card per game. Chesterfield also force more set pieces, as shown by their corner tally, so expect them to rely on aerial threats. Both teams can be direct, but Notts County’s ball retention and slightly tidier approach might prove decisive.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 9.5 Corners |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Notts County come into this on the back of a narrow 1-0 home win over Chesterfield in the first leg. They’ve been somewhat unpredictable recently—winning two and losing two of their last four matches—but when they win, they tend to keep things tight at the back. Their last outing saw Jodi Jones provide the breakthrough, underlining his value in attack. The Magpies have struggled against more dynamic sides but usually handle teams of Chesterfield’s style well.
Chesterfield lost the first leg 0-1 at home, but their five-match record shows some resilience: two wins, two draws, and a single loss. Lee Bonis is their main outlet up top, with a recent scoring streak that gives them hope. The Spireites like to press and play on the front foot, but lapses in defense have cost them in high-stakes matches. Paul Cook’s men will have to balance aggression with composure if they want to overturn the deficit at Meadow Lane.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Notts County | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 27 | 41 |
| Free kicks | 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 6 | 14 |
| Total fouls | 28 | 32 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 75.6 | 76.2 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 24 |
| Offsides | 3 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Notts County vs Chesterfield stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Notts County the favourite
- Moneyline Notts County 2.30 | Chesterfield 3.10
- Draw 3.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.15 | Under 2.5 1.67
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.98 | No 1.80
Bookmakers favour Notts County narrowly, and that reflects the home advantage plus their recent head-to-head success. Odds for a draw sit fairly close to Chesterfield’s win price, suggesting an open match. Over 2.5 goals is not strongly tipped, with a lower price for under 2.5, matching both sides’ tendency for tight, low-scoring contests in key fixtures. Both teams to score is almost a coin flip, but our review leans towards a more cagey affair with perhaps just one side finding the net.
Possible Starting Lineups
Notts County possible starting eleven
- GK: James Belshaw
- DF: Rod McDonald, Jacob Bedeau, Lucas Ness, Tom Iorpenda
- MF: Matt Palmer, Conor Grant, Oliver Norburn, Keanan Bennetts
- FW: Jodi Jones, lee ndlovu
This lineup brings together the core group that Martin Paterson has trusted in recent matches. Expect a 4-2-3-1 with Belshaw as the last line of defense. Bedeau, McDonald, and Ness anchor the back, while Palmer and Norburn handle midfield duties. Jodi Jones is the key creative force—his ability to break the lines could decide the tie. Lee Ndlovu’s work rate up front should stretch Chesterfield’s backline.
Chesterfield possible starting eleven
- GK: Ryan Boot
- DF: Sil Swinkels, Kyle McFadzean, Sam Curtis
- MF: Liam Mandeville, Tom Naylor, Ryan Stirk, Samuel Charles Braybrooke
- FW: Armando Dobra, Dilan Markanday, Lee Bonis
Paul Cook has leaned on a 3-4-2-1, and that setup gives Chesterfield flexibility to push numbers forward. Swinkels, McFadzean, and Curtis provide defensive stability, while Mandeville and Braybrooke add pace and industry. Lee Bonis is the clear dangerman—his goal streak is the Spireites’ best hope. Dobra and Markanday support from behind, offering creativity and movement.
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Chesterfield. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Notts County to edge this second leg, keeping it tight at the back and snatching a key moment through either Jodi Jones or set-piece pressure. Chesterfield’s numbers up front keep it interesting, but their tendency to concede space and rack up cards may cost them. Our preferred bet is Notts County to win or a low-scoring outcome (Under 2.5), with a strong lean towards over 9.5 corners due to Chesterfield’s aggressive play. Expect a game full of tension, with promotion hopes hanging by a thread.
