Alex MacQuoid
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City Ground hosts a match between two clubs who come into this fixture with very different early-season stories. Nottingham Forest sit 15th after two games, having drawn with Liverpool and lost to Leeds, while Tottenham are bottom of the table with two defeats and a jaw-dropping -5 goal difference. Roberto De Zerbi’s side have conceded five goals in their opening two Premier League games, which makes this a genuinely fascinating fixture — Forest may be exactly the kind of opponent that either accelerates Spurs’ crisis or finally ends it. Oliver Glasner’s team has quietly built a strong head-to-head record against Tottenham over the past two seasons, winning all four previous meetings, and that context hangs over this game like a shadow.
Two players deserve attention before kickoff. Morgan Gibbs-White has been directly involved in goals across recent appearances for Forest, combining a goal and an assist in his last two starts — his link-up with the forward line gives Glasner’s team a creative thread that Tottenham’s unsettled defence will struggle to contain. For Spurs, Mathys Tel stands out despite the poor results, having registered two assists and 12 total shots in four appearances across all competitions. His movement off the ball and persistence in advanced areas make him the most dangerous Tottenham outlet in this fixture.
One stat that stands out from Forest’s last five matches: they have managed just 32 total shots across those games — an average of 6.4 per match — which is a low volume for a Premier League side. That conservatism in attack is worth keeping in mind when assessing what kind of game this will be at City Ground.
| 🏆 Tournament: | English Premier League 2026/27 |
| 🏟 Venue: | City Ground, Nottingham |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Prediction
The head-to-head record here is hard to ignore. Forest have beaten Tottenham in all four of their most recent meetings, including two 3-0 wins and a 2-1 victory, and each time the bookmakers gave Spurs a realistic chance of winning. De Zerbi’s side are in a worse position now than they were in any of those games. They have conceded five Premier League goals in two matches, and their last away league fixture ended in a 0-3 loss to Brentford. Forest at home, in front of their own support, with a psychological edge built over two full seasons — we think a Forest win is the clearest value in this market.
Tottenham’s style under De Zerbi demands high possession and vertical passing, but their pass accuracy across five recent matches sits at 2504 out of 2820 attempts — solid in theory, but that volume hasn’t translated into clean results. Forest, by contrast, are a lower-possession side that relies on defensive structure and quick transitions. Their 40 fouls across five matches and 39 free kicks conceded tells you they press hard and accept the physical side of the game. Tottenham’s 48 fouls in the same window suggests they too are a team that gets into scrappy territory. Expect a physical, stop-start match with set pieces playing a meaningful role — which historically favours Forest at City Ground.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Nottingham Forest to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Nottingham Forest’s last 30 days have been difficult — three wins, five losses, and one draw from nine games. Their most recent Premier League fixture was a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, a result that showed some fight but also exposed defensive vulnerability against quality opposition. Before that, they lost 0-2 to Leeds in the league opener. Going further back into their pre-season and European fixtures, they beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 and Brest 2-0, which shows they are capable of performing against stronger opponents when the conditions are right. The inconsistency is real, but Forest at home against a Tottenham side in disarray is a different proposition than some of their recent away struggles.
Tottenham’s recent form is deceptive on paper. Their last five results include a 5-1 win over Charlton, a 3-0 win over Hoffenheim, and a 2-2 draw — but those positive results were sandwiched around a 0-2 loss to Newcastle and a 0-3 defeat to Brentford in the league. The Brentford result in particular is alarming: Spurs were shut out completely by a side ranked well below them. Their goals tally of 10 in five matches looks impressive, but six of those came in one game against Charlton. Strip that out and the attacking output looks far less convincing. Defensively, conceding five goals in two Premier League games is a crisis-level statistic for any club with top-half ambitions.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Nottingham Forest | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 9 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham stats page for more info.
Tottenham. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Nottingham Forest the Favourite
- Moneyline Nottingham Forest 2.62 | Tottenham 2.55
- Draw 3.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The bookmakers have this as almost a coin-flip, with Forest fractionally favoured at home. Given the head-to-head dominance Forest have established and Tottenham’s alarming defensive form, we think the market is undervaluing Forest here. Odds around 2.62 for a home win — from a side that has won all four recent meetings with this exact opponent — represent genuine value. The draw odds at 3.25 are fair given how difficult Tottenham can be to fully put away, but honestly, backing Forest to win and keep a clean sheet looks like the smartest combination in this fixture.
Possible Starting Lineups
Nottingham Forest Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Matz Sels
- DF: Jair Cunha, Nikola Milenković, Murillo Santiago, Neco Williams
- MF: Ibrahim Sangaré, Nicolás Domínguez, Xaver Schlager, Morgan Gibbs-White
- FW: Dan Ndoye, Igor Jesus
Glasner has been consistent with his 4-2-3-1 shape and the personnel around it. Matz Sels is the clear first choice in goal, having made eight saves across three recent appearances. Jair Cunha has featured in all three tracked games and brings defensive solidity at full-back. The double pivot of Sangaré and Domínguez gives Forest the midfield compactness they need to absorb Spurs’ possession spells. Gibbs-White operating as the number 10 is the creative hub — his ability to combine between the lines and drive at defenders makes him the player Tottenham will be most concerned about. Igor Jesus leads the line and will look to exploit any space behind Spurs’ high defensive line.
Tottenham Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Antonin Kinsky
- DF: Jan Paul van Hecke, Marcos Senesi, Andrew Robertson, Pedro Porro
- MF: Rodrigo Bentancur, Archie Gray, Mateus Fernandes, Lucas Bergvall
- FW: Mathys Tel, Dominic Solanke
Antonin Kinsky has started four of the five tracked matches and is the likely choice in goal ahead of Brandon Austin. Jan Paul van Hecke has featured in all four of those starts and will anchor the defence alongside Senesi. Archie Gray has been one of Tottenham’s more reliable performers with six interceptions across four games, and Mateus Fernandes has contributed two assists — both are central to De Zerbi’s midfield structure. Mathys Tel, as mentioned, is the biggest attacking threat and will likely play in a free role behind or alongside Solanke in a 4-2-3-1 shape. The question is whether Robertson and Porro can provide enough width without leaving gaps at the back, which has been Spurs’ recurring problem this season.
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Nottingham Forest. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Four straight wins over Tottenham. That is not a coincidence — it reflects something structural about how Forest set up against this opponent, and how Glasner’s defensive organisation has repeatedly nullified whatever Spurs bring going forward. Tottenham are now in a worse place than at any point during those previous meetings: two league defeats, five goals conceded, no clean sheets, and a manager still searching for his best eleven. Forest at City Ground, with the crowd behind them and that head-to-head record in their favour, is a compelling situation.
We are backing Nottingham Forest to win. Their low shot volume is a concern for high-scoring outcomes, but in a tight, physical game against a Tottenham side that cannot keep the ball out of their own net, Forest’s defensive shape and set-piece threat may be all they need. Under 2.5 goals and a Forest win looks like the most logical combination. Maybe Spurs nick something late — but honestly, the evidence points one way.
- Prediction: Nottingham Forest Win
- Total Goals: Under 2.5
- Both Teams To Score: No
- Hot Tip: Nottingham Forest to Win to Nil
