Liam Duckstein
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Nottingham Forest and Manchester City meet at the City Ground on Saturday evening, and the table tells a harsh story for the hosts. Forest sit 19th on six points, own the weakest attack in the division at six goals from nine matches, and have not won a game in over a month. City, second on 21 points, arrive three days after a 3-2 win over RB Leipzig. History adds a wrinkle though: this ground has bothered City before, since Forest beat them 1-0 here in March 2025 and held them to a 2-2 draw last season in a match Forest were favoured to win.
Two players shape the betting picture. Phil Foden carries City’s threat with three goals and two assists across his last five appearances, and his drift into the half-spaces will probe a Forest midfield that has been overrun for weeks. Dan Ndoye is Forest’s outlet, nine shots and a goal in his last four, and the wide channels are the only route Glasner’s men have shown toward goal.
The hot stat belongs to the hosts, and it is ugly: two goals in five matches. Forest generate shots at 14 per game across that span yet convert almost nothing, which is why every market here starts with doubt about them scoring at all.
| 🏆 Tournament: | English Premier League 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | City Ground, Nottingham |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction
We predict Manchester City to win, and we treat the away side as the only sensible anchor in this fixture. City have won five of their last eight, sit second with a 20-10 goal record, and beat Forest in three of the last five meetings. To be honest, the 1.70 on the visitors is thin value on its own, so the smart route is the combination: City to win with under 3.5 goals in the game. City’s two most recent away league matches finished 1-2 and 0-1, controlled games rather than shootouts, and Forest’s attack gives no reason to expect a goal fest.
Style points seal the lean. City completed 2705 of 3041 passes in their last five matches, an 89% rate, and they dominate the ball against low blocks. Forest sit at 78% pass accuracy and have committed 52 fouls in five games, a scrappier profile, so stoppages will favour the visitors, whose 82 free kicks in the same span point to constant fouling of their ball-carriers. Cards should stay moderate, seven yellows for Forest and eight for City recently, but the territorial balance means corners and pressure pile up at one end. City grind Forest down rather than blow the game open.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Manchester City to win & under 3.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Forest’s last five matches read as one draw and four defeats: a 0-2 loss to Brentford, a 1-1 draw with Ipswich, a 0-1 defeat against Arsenal, a 1-3 loss to Crystal Palace, and a 0-1 defeat at Coventry. The Brentford game deserves the closest look because it distilled everything wrong with this team. Forest produced their usual volume of shots, tested the home keeper rarely, and conceded twice without ever seriously threatening an equaliser. Two goals from 70 shots across five matches is the whole problem in one number, and Liam Delap’s dozen attempts without a reward underline it.
In our preview of Brentford vs Nottingham Forest we backed Brentford to win while Forest misfired in front of goal, and the 2-0 result delivered it.
City’s week was wilder. They lost 1-2 at Aston Villa, thrashed AEK Athens 5-1, survived an absurd 6-5 against Brighton in midweek, fell 0-1 to Brighton in the league, then beat RB Leipzig 3-2 on Thursday. City scored in four of those five and conceded in every single one, which describes a team that attacks relentlessly and defends loosely. The Leipzig win showed both faces: three goals scored, two surrendered, and gaps a sharper side than Leipzig’s current one would have punished.
In our preview of RB Leipzig vs Manchester City we backed City to edge a high-scoring game with both teams scoring, and the 3-2 result delivered it.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
City hold the recent edge with three wins from the last five meetings. Forest’s 1-0 here in March 2025 remains their only success in that span, and the 2-2 draw at the City Ground last March came in a game the hosts were favoured to win. City also removed Forest from the 2024/25 FA Cup at the semifinal stage with a 2-0 win. The comparison below uses each club’s numbers from their most recent five matches.
| Statistic | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 11 |
| Total shots | 70 | 78 |
| Free kicks | 32 | 82 |
| Corner kicks | 25 | 29 |
| Total fouls | 52 | 42 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 78 | 89 |
| Interceptions | 40 | 43 |
| Offsides | 5 | 13 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City stats page for more info.
Nottingham Forest. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Manchester City the favourite
- Moneyline Nottingham Forest 4.64 | Manchester City 1.70
- Draw 4.11
The averaged market puts City near 59% implied probability, close to the 57% consensus across bookmakers, and we agree with the direction. Forest at 4.64 only tempts if you believe the March 2025 upset repeats, and the current form gap, zero wins in a month against five in eight for City, says it does not. The draw at 4.11 is the trap. City have played nine league matches this season without a single stalemate, seven wins and two defeats, which makes the draw poor value despite Forest’s three ties.
Possible Starting Lineups
Nottingham Forest possible starting eleven
- GK: Matz Sels
- DF: Neco Williams, Murillo, Jair Cunha, Daniel Muñoz
- MF: Xaver Schlager, Ibrahim Sangaré, Morgan Gibbs-White, James Mcatee, Dan Ndoye
- FW: Liam Delap
Sels keeps goal with 360 minutes behind him in the last four. The back four follows the playing time: Williams and Muñoz attack their flanks, Murillo anchors, and Cunha edges out Milenković and Diomande. Schlager and Sangaré screen while Gibbs-White operates free, and Mcatee’s 355 minutes make him a lock on the right. Delap leads the line despite no goals from 12 shots, his ten fouls in four games showing the physical role Glasner wants, and Ndoye is Forest’s best bet for a goal. Expect the same 4-2-3-1 Glasner has used in every recent match.
Manchester City possible starting eleven
- GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- DF: Abdukodir Khusanov, Rúben Dias, Marc Guehi, Josko Gvardiol
- MF: Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández, Rayan Cherki, Phil Foden, Jeremy Doku
- FW: Erling Haaland
Donnarumma is the clear first choice with 360 minutes and eight saves across his four appearances. Khusanov’s 374 minutes lead the squad and he starts alongside Dias, with Guehi and Gvardiol completing the back line ahead of Rico Lewis. Anderson and Fernández form the double pivot, Anderson’s 295 passes and eight interceptions the engine of everything City do. Cherki is the wildcard with 18 shots in five games, Foden’s three goals and two assists make him the danger man, and Doku stretches the left behind Haaland, who has ten shots and two goals in limited minutes. Maresca has leaned on 4-2-3-1 all season and will not change it here.
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Manchester City. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Everything points one way. Forest have two goals in five matches, no win in a month, and a 19th-place standing; City have five wins in eight, the league’s second-best attack, and the stronger head-to-head record. We predict a 0-2 City win as the primary scoreline, perhaps 1-2 if Forest nick one against the run of play. Back City on the moneyline, take the win-plus-under-3.5 combo for value, and expect corners to clear 9.5 as City camp in the final third. The 2-2 from March belonged to a different Forest team in a different moment; this version cannot score well enough to make it repeat.
