Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction: 25 August 2026 EFL Cup

Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover

Add on Google

Oliver Glasner’s Nottingham Forest side welcome Daniel Farke’s Leeds to the City Ground in EFL Cup Round 2, and the timing couldn’t be more uncomfortable for the hosts. These two sides met just days ago in the Premier League, with Leeds winning 1-0 at this exact ground, and the question now is whether Forest can flip the script in quick succession. The EFL Cup context adds a layer of unpredictability — rotation is likely on both sides — but Leeds arrive carrying genuine momentum, having won five of their last seven matches across all competitions. Forest, by contrast, have managed just three wins from eight in the same period, losing four. The class gap between these squads is narrower than rankings suggest, and this fixture has real edge to it given how recently they last clashed.

Two players to watch closely here: Anton Stach of Leeds has been outstanding across the last five matches, contributing two goals, ten interceptions, and two free-kick goals — he drives play from deep and poses a genuine dead-ball threat. For Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White remains the creative focal point in midfield, linking phases of play and generating shots; his output will likely dictate how dangerous Forest look going forward.

The hot stat from recent form belongs to Leeds without question — they scored nine goals across their last five matches while taking 70 shots and earning 15 corner kicks. Forest, over the same period, managed zero goals from 24 shots. That is a stark difference in attacking output and one that is hard to ignore when assessing this fixture.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction

Leeds are the pick here, and honestly the recent head-to-head record combined with their current form makes it difficult to argue otherwise. They’ve won three of the last four meetings across all competitions, including the Premier League fixture just days before this one. Forest have not scored in their last two matches — both at home — which is alarming when you consider they’re facing a Leeds side that has been prolific. We think a Leeds win or at least both teams scoring is the most realistic outcome, with Leeds’ attacking depth giving them an edge even if Farke opts to rotate heavily.

Forest under Glasner tend to press high and commit bodies forward in their 3-4-2-1 shape, which opens them to transitions. Leeds exploit exactly those situations — their interception count across five games sits at 55 compared to Forest’s 4, suggesting they win the ball back quickly and convert turnovers into attacks. Forest concede fouls at a lower rate (30 across five games) but that partly reflects how little they’ve been pressed into defensive work; Leeds gave away 63 fouls in the same period, showing a more physical, high-intensity approach that can disrupt Forest’s build-up. The corner kick disparity (15 to 6) also tells a story about territorial dominance. Leeds simply spend more time in the attacking third and create more set-piece situations.

Team Analysis

Nottingham Forest’s last five matches paint a difficult picture. They lost to Leeds 1-0 in the Premier League, beat Brest 2-0, beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-1, lost to Barcelona 1-0, and lost to Udinese 1-0. The wins came against sides they were expected to handle, while the defeats against elite opposition and, crucially, a mid-table Udinese side suggest inconsistency at the back. Their attacking numbers are the real concern — zero goals across the two most recent matches and a total shot count of 24 over five games is well below what you’d want from a team at this level. The reliance on individual moments rather than consistent attacking patterns is a structural issue Glasner hasn’t fully resolved. Rotation for the cup could mean their depth is tested even further.

Leeds have been a different proposition entirely. Their last five results include a 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest, a 4-0 demolition of FC Augsburg, a 1-1 draw with Manchester United, a 2-0 win over RB Leipzig, and a remarkable 4-2 win over Liverpool. Farke’s side beat Liverpool 4-2 — that result alone signals something is working. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been sharp, registering three goals across five matches, and the midfield engine of Stach, Ampadu, and Aaronson is functioning well. The only concern is defensive solidity; they’ve conceded in multiple recent games, which opens the door for Forest to get on the scoresheet if they show up with more intent than their recent output suggests.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Nottingham Forest vs Leeds stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Nottingham Forest the favourite

• Moneyline Nottingham Forest 2.17 | Leeds 3.18
• Draw 3.44
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —

The bookmakers have Forest as slight favourites at around 2.15-2.22, which feels generous given their recent form. Leeds at roughly 3.00-3.25 represents value — they’ve won the last Premier League meeting between these two just days prior, and their overall win rate of 71% across the last 30 days dwarfs Forest’s 38%. The draw is priced around 3.35-3.55, which is fair given how competitive this fixture has historically been. We think the market is slightly overrating Forest’s home advantage here, particularly given their goalless run and Leeds’ attacking output. Leeds at 3.10-3.18 with Pinnacle is where the value sits.

Possible Starting Lineups

Nottingham Forest possible starting eleven

Glasner has consistently deployed a 3-4-2-1 shape and we expect that to continue here. Matz Sels keeps his place in goal — he’s been the most active goalkeeper in Forest’s recent games with four saves in two matches. Murillo Santiago and Milenković form the central defensive pairing with Jair Cunha operating on the left. Sangaré anchors the midfield; his 106 passes across two games shows he’s the primary ball distributor. Mcatee and Gibbs-White operate in the advanced midfield roles, with Gibbs-White the key creative outlet. Igor Jesus leads the attacking line with Chris Wood offering a physical option. Dan Ndoye and Luca Netz could come in if Glasner chooses to rotate wing positions, which is plausible in a cup context.

Leeds possible starting eleven

Farke’s preferred 3-4-2-1 mirrors Forest’s setup, which makes midfield battles particularly significant. Trafford gets the nod in goal ahead of Cairns given his recent playing time. The back three of Bijol, Muharemovic, and Justin has been solid — Muharemovic leads the squad with 210 passes in five games, underlining his role in build-up. Ampadu and Stach are the engine room; Stach’s ten interceptions and two free-kick goals make him arguably the most dangerous player on the pitch from a combined defensive and offensive standpoint. Aaronson provides energy and has two goals to his name in recent matches. Calvert-Lewin leads the line — three goals in five games — with Daniel James offering pace on the flank. Farke may introduce Gnonto or Okafor off the bench if the game opens up.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

TipsGG Match Prediction

Leeds go into this EFL Cup tie having beaten Forest just days before and carrying a form run that makes them genuinely difficult to back against. Their attacking output across five matches — nine goals, 70 shots, 15 corners — is vastly superior to anything Forest have produced, and Forest’s inability to score in their last two home fixtures is a real concern. The interception numbers tell a tactical story too: Leeds win the ball back at a much higher rate, which feeds directly into their transition game.

Forest will have home support and the motivation to respond after the Premier League defeat, and maybe they’ll find a goal here. But we think Leeds are the smarter pick at the current odds. Calvert-Lewin’s physical presence, Stach’s all-round influence, and Aaronson’s goal threat give Farke’s side multiple ways to win this match. Both teams to score feels right given Forest’s tendency to concede and Leeds’ habit of leaking the odd goal — but Leeds winning 2-1 or 2-0 is the most likely outcome based on the data available.

Our pick: Leeds to win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals.

More useful links for football fans

• Gamble Responsibly
• Best Football Betting Websites
• How to Bet On Sports
• Sports Betting Glossary
• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG