Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahce Prediction: 26.02.2026 UEFA Europa League

Set under the lights at City Ground, Nottingham Forest welcome Fenerbahce for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2025/26 knockout tie. Both teams are looking to seize their opportunity for continental progress, with Forest holding a commanding advantage from the first leg. The encounter is especially intriguing given Fenerbahce’s historical resilience and Forest’s recent uptick in tactical discipline. Key match-ups in midfield and at the number ten position should prove decisive.

Two players particularly worth watching are Morgan Gibbs-White for Forest—whose creativity and end product have been vital in European competition—and Anderson Talisca for Fenerbahce, a proven goal threat whose long-range shooting and set-piece prowess can change a game in an instant. While both teams employ a 4-2-3-1 setup, their execution has varied greatly this campaign.

The “hot stat” for this tie: In the last five matches, Fenerbahce have racked up an eye-catching 19 yellow cards, highlighting disciplinary concerns that could impact squad selection and match flow.

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Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahce Prediction

The best value prediction here is a home win for Nottingham Forest. Coming off a dominant 3-0 victory in Turkey and displaying greater defensive solidity under Vitor Pereira, Forest hold both the psychological and tactical edge. While Fenerbahce possess highly talented attackers, their disciplinary issues and leaky defense on the road are major concerns. The English side’s balanced midfield and attacking depth give them the upper hand, especially with Morgan Gibbs-White in excellent form.

Forest’s approach has been measured, keeping fouls and yellow cards to just four apiece in their last five matches and registering a respectable 69 ball recoveries (interceptions). Their 4-2-3-1 frequently pivots to a compact 4-5-1 when defending, neutralizing central threats and protecting their goal. In contrast, Fenerbahce have been aggressive in pressing but reckless in discipline, committing 52 fouls and earning 19 yellows in their recent run, which could be exploited by Forest’s quick transitions and set-piece routines. Expect the game to see controlled possession phases interspersed with sharp counter-attacks.

Team Analysis

Nottingham Forest: Recent Games and Focus
Forest arrive in good form, having secured three wins in their last seven outings, including the crucial 3-0 away win over Fenerbahce. The previous home match was a narrow 0-1 loss to Liverpool, where their midfield showed both defensive discipline and attacking intent despite defeat. In the reverse fixture against Fenerbahce, Forest were proactive—Gibbs-White starred with a brace, and Murillo Santiago contributed from set pieces. Pereira’s men have largely stuck to their 4-2-3-1, leaning on compact defending and efficient, clinical attacks.

Fenerbahce: Recent Games and Focus
Fenerbahce, under Domenico Tedesco, have delivered patchy results, winning four of their last eight but recently suffering a heavy 0-3 home loss to Forest. While the Turkish giants bounced back with league wins against Trabzonspor and Genclerbirligi, their Europa League campaign has been marred by defensive lapses and a surge in tactical fouls. The team features flair and firepower, most notably through Talisca, Marco Asensio, and Akturkoglu, but have struggled to maintain discipline and cohesion under high-pressure European fixtures.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahce stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Nottingham Forest the favourite

• Moneyline Nottingham Forest 1.58 | Fenerbahce 5.30
• Draw 4.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.01 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.20 | No 1.71

The current odds reflect Forest’s strong home record and emphatic first-leg result, positioning them as justifiable favourites. Fenerbahce’s long price mirrors both their disciplinary turmoil and away-day vulnerabilities, while the short price on “BTTS: No” underlines Forest’s defensive strength and Fenerbahce’s struggles breaking down organized back lines. The odds on “Under 2.5” are also appealing, considering Forest won’t have to take risks and Fenerbahce struggled for clear chances in the first leg.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Nottingham Forest possible starting eleven

With Forest favouring a 4-2-3-1, Ortega’s recent form in goal keeps him ahead of Sels. The backline combines Milenković and Murillo’s positional awareness with Williams and Aina’s full-back energy. Domínguez and Sangaré offer balance in midfield, protecting the creative trio of Anderson, Gibbs-White, and Hudson-Odoi. Up front, Igor Jesus provides presence and movement. Watch for Gibbs-White’s roaming playmaking and Milenković’s set-piece prowess—they could be match-winners in this system.

Fenerbahce possible starting eleven

Fenerbahce are set for a 4-2-3-1 with Ederson’s big-game experience in goal. Oosterwolde and Müldür attack from full-back, while Söyüncü and Semedo anchor central defence. The pairing of Guendouzi and Kanté will be tasked with controlling transitions and shielding Talisca and Asensio, the primary creators. Akturkoglu’s direct running supports Dorgeles up top. Expect Talisca’s threat from range and Kanté’s industry to be Fenerbahce’s key features. Formation stability will be vital, given their struggles with red cards and fouls.

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My take on the Match

Given Nottingham Forest’s organisational consistency, superior home form, and Fenerbahce’s travel and discipline concerns, I’m backing Forest to secure a second-leg victory and progress to the next round. The tactical edge offered by Pereira, coupled with Gibbs-White’s dynamism and the team’s set-piece strength, make them a clear favourite. Fenerbahce will need a near-flawless attacking display to overturn their deficit, but Forest’s current structure looks too strong to capitulate at home.

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