Levi Rothermund
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Nottingham Forest and Bayer Leverkusen meet in a high-profile pre-season friendly on August 12, with Carles Martínez’s Leverkusen side arriving in considerably better shape than Oliver Glasner’s Forest outfit. The interesting wrinkle here is that Leverkusen have gone five from five in their last 30 days, while Forest have managed just three wins from eight, making the bookmakers’ 45% probability on a Leverkusen win look very reasonable. This is a side that put seven past Baumberg and four past Genk without reply in recent weeks, and Forest have been leaking goals against quality opposition.
Granit Xhaka remains the engine in Leverkusen’s midfield, dictating tempo and recycling possession with efficiency that few friendlies can mask. For Forest, keep an eye on their attacking midfield options, as Glasner’s team tends to rely on individual creativity to generate chances when their structure is under pressure.
Hot stat: Bayer Leverkusen have scored 19 goals across their last five matches, averaging 3.8 goals per game, and have conceded just two in that run — a level of attacking output and defensive solidity that is hard to ignore heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 – August |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Nottingham Forest vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
The value here sits firmly on a Bayer Leverkusen win. Their last 30 days have been flawless — five wins from five — while Forest have stumbled through a mixed pre-season with four losses in eight outings. Leverkusen’s goal difference across their recent five matches tells its own story: they are scoring freely and barely conceding.
Forest’s recent defeats against Sporting CP (1-4), Udinese (0-1), and Barcelona (0-1) show a team that struggles against organised, technically sound sides. Leverkusen are exactly that, and with the momentum they carry into this match, a comfortable win for the German side is the most logical outcome.
We think backing Leverkusen on the moneyline at around 2.16 with Pinnacle represents solid value. Forest have shown little defensive resilience against strong opponents, and Leverkusen’s attack has been relentless in this pre-season window. A margin of two or more goals is genuinely on the cards.
Both teams scoring is a closer call. Forest did find the net in some recent outings, but their attacking consistency is questionable. Honestly, the safer lean is toward Leverkusen winning without Forest necessarily contributing to the scoresheet, though BTTS Yes carries some merit given the open nature of pre-season football.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bayer Leverkusen to win by 2+ goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Nottingham Forest have had a turbulent pre-season under Oliver Glasner. Across their last eight matches in the past 30 days, they have won three, drawn one, and lost four. Their most recent outing ended in a 0-1 defeat to Barcelona, and that followed another 0-1 reverse against Udinese — a team ranked well outside the top 50 globally. The 1-4 loss to Sporting CP was the sharpest indicator of defensive fragility, with Forest unable to cope with a high-pressing, technically gifted opponent. The sole bright spot in their recent run was a 2-1 win over Portimonense, though the quality of opposition there was modest. A draw against Vitoria Guimaraes also suggests Forest are not yet clicking as a unit going forward. Glasner’s 4-2-3-1 setup needs more cohesion before Forest face elite competition, and this match may come a week too early for them.
Bayer Leverkusen, under Carles Martínez, have been in outstanding form. Their last five matches have produced five wins, with a combined score of 19 goals scored and just two conceded. The most recent result — a 2-1 win over Sevilla — is the most meaningful of the bunch, coming against a club with genuine European pedigree. Before that, a 3-0 dismantling of RW Essen and a 4-0 win over Genk showed that Leverkusen are not just beating weak opposition; they are doing it with clean sheets and controlled performances. The 7-0 against Baumberg perhaps flattered the scoreline, but the 3-1 over Kickers Offenbach and the Genk result show a team that is sharp, well-drilled, and building serious pre-season momentum. They arrive into this fixture as the form side by a considerable distance.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
The two sides have not met with any meaningful head-to-head history available in our database beyond the current fixture window. The data below reflects the upcoming match context.
| Statistic | Nottingham Forest | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Nottingham Forest vs Bayer Leverkusen stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bayer Leverkusen the favourite
- Moneyline Nottingham Forest 3.40 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.86
- Draw 3.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The market is clear on this one. Leverkusen’s best price of 1.86 with bet365 reflects their five-from-five form, and Forest’s odds of 3.40 on the same platform are fair given their inconsistency. The draw price around 3.60–3.84 is not particularly attractive given how differently these two sides have performed in pre-season. We think the Leverkusen moneyline at 1.86 or better is where the value lies, and Pinnacle’s 2.16 offers a slightly more generous return for those who want more cushion. The spread across bookmakers is notable — cloudbet has Leverkusen at 2.11, which is worth targeting if you want a middle-ground price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Nottingham Forest possible starting eleven
- GK: Matz Sels
- DF: Neco Williams, Murillo, Nikola Milenkovic, Andrew Omobamidele
- MF: Ryan Yates, Elliot Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White
- FW: Anthony Elanga, Taiwo Awoniyi, Callum Hudson-Odoi
Forest’s likely 4-2-3-1 setup places Ryan Yates and Elliot Anderson as the double pivot, with Morgan Gibbs-White operating in the number ten role. Glasner will want Gibbs-White to find pockets of space against Leverkusen’s press, though that task has proven difficult for Forest in recent weeks. Anthony Elanga’s pace on the right flank is Forest’s most direct route to goal, and he will be the player most capable of causing problems in transition. Murillo’s positioning and aerial ability will be tested by a Leverkusen front line that has been relentless this pre-season.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting eleven
- GK: Lukáš Hrádecký
- DF: Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba, Alejandro Grimaldo
- MF: Granit Xhaka, Florian Wirtz, Alex Grimaldo
- MF: Granit Xhaka, Robert Andrich
- FW: Florian Wirtz, Amine Adli, Patrik Schick
Leverkusen’s 4-2-3-1 under Martínez leans heavily on Granit Xhaka’s control in midfield and Florian Wirtz’s ability to operate between the lines. Wirtz is maybe the most dangerous player on the pitch — his combination play and direct running have been central to Leverkusen’s prolific pre-season. Patrik Schick will lead the line and should find space against a Forest defence that has been porous against quality opposition. Frimpong’s overlapping runs from right back add another attacking dimension that Forest’s left side will struggle to contain consistently.
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Nottingham Forest. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Everything in the data points toward a Bayer Leverkusen win. Their pre-season has been dominant — five wins, 19 goals scored, two conceded — while Nottingham Forest have lost four of their last eight and shipped four goals against Sporting CP in their most telling recent performance. The gap in momentum between these two sides is significant, and pre-season form from quality opponents tends to carry over into early competitive fixtures.
We back Bayer Leverkusen to win, with Over 2.5 goals as the complementary bet. Forest’s defensive issues against pressing, technical sides are well-documented across this pre-season, and Leverkusen’s attack — led by Wirtz and Schick — has the quality to exploit those gaps consistently. The Leverkusen win by two or more goals market is our preferred hot tip, and at bet365’s 1.86 on the outright, the value is clear.
