Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: 28.09.2025 Eredivisie Preview

Sunday afternoon sees Nijmegen host AZ Alkmaar at the Stadion de Goffert in a match that promises both intrigue and tactical nuance. Both sides are jostling for early footholds in the Eredivisie’s new season, but their pathways couldn’t contrast more sharply: Nijmegen find themselves in 8th, striving for consistency after a string of high-scoring encounters, while AZ Alkmaar, unbeaten so far, are perched in the upper echelon and keen to turn draws into full points.
What adds a fascinating edge to this clash? For one, AZ’s formidable offensive momentum is set against a Nijmegen outfit that, despite a potent attack, have shown alarming defensive frailties—conceding five against PSV, three to Heerenveen, and Sittard in recent weeks. All eyes will naturally gravitate toward AZ’s hotshot forward Mexx Meerdink, fresh off a superb run netting three goals in his last five outings, and Nijmegen’s creative linchpin Sami Ouaissa, whose energy and end product could be pivotal to any upset hopes at home.
Hot stat: Across their last five matches, AZ Alkmaar have racked up a whopping 32 corner kicks and 12 goals, underlining their relentless pressure and attacking depth.

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Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

The best value here is on AZ Alkmaar to edge out Nijmegen. AZ’s unbeaten record, coupled with a commanding 60 percent win rate over the last month, speaks volumes about their current discipline and attacking variety. Meanwhile, Nijmegen’s penchant for conceding—shipping 5, 3, and 3 goals in their last three—suggests they’ll struggle to contain the Alkmaar frontline.
AZ’s style is direct and purposeful, evidenced by 100 shots and 12 goals in their last five fixtures. They blend aggression (50 fouls, 17 yellows) with technical poise (2021 successful passes), though their sometimes cavalier approach can leave them exposed. Nijmegen, for their part, love to push bodies forward (46 shots, 18 corners over five), but their 30 fouls and vulnerability at the back undermines much of that good work.
Expect AZ to dominate possession and dictate tempo thanks to their superior midfield passing accuracy. However, Nijmegen’s lively attack means goals aren’t out of the equation for the hosts, especially through the likes of Ouaissa and Linssen.

Team Analysis

Nijmegen:
Nijmegen are playing fast and loose with their defensive lines, leading to thrillers but not always favourable outcomes. Their last match saw them fall 2-3 to Heerenveen—a fourth loss in six, with recurring errors at the back and lapses in concentration. While players like Sami Ouaissa and Virgil Misidjan can carve open defences, there’s an alarming lack of composure when absorbing pressure, as 30 fouls and modest interception numbers (22 over five games) suggest. Linssen’s experience and Chery’s distribution remain big assets, but without tightening up, results could continue to fluctuate.

AZ Alkmaar:
AZ Alkmaar come in brimming with confidence, drawing 2-2 with PEC Zwolle last out but maintaining their unbeaten start. Their previous victory against Feyenoord (3-3 draw with the champions) underscored resilience and a knack for wrestling results from tough situations. Led by the likes of Meerdink and midfield conductor Clasie, AZ’s blend of youthful energy and experience shows in their relentless high-tempo pressing and frequent use of flanks, as demonstrated by their 32 corners and 2354 passes over the previous five. If they can convert dominance into ruthlessness in front of goal, this could be a statement away win.

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🚨Read our full Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: AZ Alkmaar the favourite

• Moneyline Nijmegen 3.05 | AZ Alkmaar 2.12
• Draw 3.96
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.70 | Under 2.5 2.10
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.60 | No 2.22

Odds reflect AZ’s strong away form and Nijmegen’s defensive struggles. The value on AZ (2.12) is inviting, especially with their impressive unbeaten streak and higher win rate in recent fixtures. Over 2.5 goals also appeals, given Nijmegen’s attacking intent but porous defence. BTTS is favoured by the bookies, echoing what recent games and team profiles suggest: both play with a fearless, positive intent, but are open at the back. In sum, the market gives sensible consideration to AZ but doesn’t discount Nijmegen’s capacity to surprise.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Nijmegen possible starting eleven

Dick Schreuder is likely to stick with the tried and tested 4-2-3-1, banking on Ouaissa and Chery to provide creative spark in the middle and Linssen’s guile up top. Misidjan drifts wide or cuts inside, trying to exploit any space left by Alkmaar’s aggressive full-backs. Watch for Ouaissa—his vision and willingness to shoot from distance is a potential game-changer. The full-backs will need to be defensively solid, given AZ’s proficiency down the flanks.

AZ Alkmaar possible starting eleven

Expect a familiar 4-3-3 under Martens, boasting balance between Clasie’s experience in holding, Smit and Mijnans’ dynamism, and the mobility of Sadiq and Daal out wide. Meerdink, currently in fine form, is the focal point. Denso Kasius—energetic and aggressive—provides width and overlaps. The midfield trio ensures AZ can boss possession while the wide forwards stretch any backline sitting deep.

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My take on the Match

Backing AZ Alkmaar for the win is the sensible route—they’ve got the better form, more creative outlets, and a recognised resilience in big away games. Yet, it’d be foolish to write off Nijmegen at home, especially if their attacking trio click early. The likelihood of both teams finding the net is high, with goals at both ends almost a given, but Alkmaar’s extra class in the final third should make the difference in a lively contest. Expect action, drama, and AZ to take the points—though not without a spirited fight from Nijmegen.

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