Nice vs Paris Prediction: 28.09.2025 Ligue 1 2025/26

The Ligue 1 spotlight returns to the sun-drenched Côte d’Azur as Nice prepare to host Paris at the formidable Allianz Riviera. While both sides currently inhabit mid-table positions after patchy starts, their motivations for this clash run deep—neither can afford more ground lost so early in the campaign. Fans will see Franck Haise, a familiar pragmatist in the Nice dugout, square up to Stéphane Gilli, whose Paris side is seeking consistency and respect in France’s top flight.

Keep an eye on Nice striker Terem Moffi, whose predatory instincts have yielded two goals in his last four appearances. For Paris, the creative spark of Ilan Kebbal has been instrumental, with two goals and an assist recently, making him one of Ligue 1’s more eye-catching midfielders outside the usual powerhouses. In a tactical game likely to turn on moments of ingenuity, these two might hold the keys. Notably, Nice’s goalkeeper Yehvann Diouf has been quietly reliable despite the team’s defensive frailties, while Paris’ rotating custodians could have their hands full.

The “hot stat”: Across their last five Ligue 1 matches, Nice have averaged 10.4 shots per game but are converting at just under 8%. Concerning for Haise—can Paris exploit those wasteful tendencies?

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Nice vs Paris prediction

Given the attacking prowess both sides have shown—and the evident defensive wobbles—our best value prediction is BTTS (Both Teams to Score): Yes. Nice’s forwards, spearheaded by Moffi and ably supported by Jérémie Boga, have shown they can fashion chances even as the backline concedes. Paris, meanwhile, are more than capable of exploiting gaps, especially on transitions through Kebbal and the hard-running Nouha Dicko.

Tactically, Nice usually line up in a 4-1-4-1, looking to dominate the ball (averaging upwards of 56% possession at home) and recycle attacks, yet their 9 yellow cards in the past five games suggest a certain frustration and potential vulnerability to quick counters. Paris, playing their 3-4-2-1, are a touch more direct and have managed to carve out 7 goals in their last five while conceding frequently themselves. Crucially, Paris have been far more disciplined—just 4 yellow cards—hinting they might keep their heads if the match descends into the midfield trenches.

Expect a lively contest: both defensive units leak goals (Each with -3 goal difference after five matches), so the over 2.5 goals market and the Asian Handicap in favour of Paris look inviting for savvy punters. Add in fouls (Nice committed 52, Paris just 25 in their last 5) and the prospect of dangerous set pieces for both, and there’s drama in the air at Allianz Riviera!

Team Analysis

Nice’s Recent Games: Haise’s side has laboured of late, losing 1-2 to Roma and a chastening 1-4 at home to Brest. Even their 1-0 win over Nantes was far from convincing, with lapses in midfield positioning and overreliance on set pieces. Defensively, Nice struggled, conceding 9 in 5 recent matches, while scoring just 4. Still, players like Terem Moffi and Jérémie Boga inject goal threat, and their pressing from the front can force errors out of uncertain defences.

Paris’s Recent Games: Paris come off a 2-3 loss to Strasbourg, but prior to that, wins over Brest (2-1) and Metz (3-2) offered glimpses of a much-improved attack. Ilan Kebbal has been a revelation, and Nouha Dicko’s pace keeps defenders honest. However, defensive frailty is again an issue—11 goals conceded in five games. Tactically, flexibility is their weapon; Gilli can easily switch to a back five or beef up midfield, depending on the state of play.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Nice vs Paris stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Nice the favourite

• Moneyline Nice 1.87 | Paris 3.84
• Draw 3.86
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.09 | Under 2.5 1.67
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.81

The market gives Nice the edge, likely down to home advantage and their higher possession figures. Yet these odds overlook Paris’ sharpness in transition and Kebbal’s form. A tight contest is likely, but the BTTS and Paris Asian Handicap markets seem undervalued given both sides’ defensive brittleness and offensive upside. For those seeking value, Paris to avoid defeat is a reasonable punt, but Nice at home are deservedly slight favourites according to consensus bookmaker outlooks.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Nice possible starting eleven

Expect Haise to stay loyal to his 4-1-4-1, with Moffi leading the line and Diouf between the sticks. Diop and Boudaoui will look to tuck in and control central areas, with Bard a real threat overlapping down the left. Watch for Oppong, whose defensive work rate and interceptions have been vital—if Nice are to keep it tight, he will need another top display.

Paris possible starting eleven

Paris should stick to their successful 3-4-2-1, with Kebbal and Simon given freedom to create behind Dicko. Maxime López pulls the strings centrally, while Chergui marshals a back three that’s physical but can be turned. Both fullbacks offer width and energy. If Kebbal finds his rhythm, Paris could cause Nice serious headaches on the break.

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My take on the Match

Given both sides’ penchant for high-risk defending and the attacking talent on display, my main pick is Both Teams To Score: Yes. I expect sparks to fly, with Nice looking to bounce back at home and Paris eager to build on their recent attacking surge. Moffi and Kebbal are both in good form, and defensive lapses on both sides should offer opportunities. While Nice are slight favourites, Paris are a genuine threat—so expect a match full of twists and a share of the spoils very much a possibility. With Ligue 1’s top six within touching distance, both teams know just how vital these three points could prove come May!

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