Nice vs Montpellier Prediction: 04.02.2026 Coupe de France

As the Coupe de France 2025/26 Round of 16 heats up, Nice welcomes Montpellier to the Allianz Riviera for a clash that will test both teams’ tactical depth and mentality. Recent form lines present a nuanced contest: Nice, under Claude Puel, are desperate for stability after a spell of mixed results, while Montpellier, guided by Zoumana Camara, have quietly built momentum with an impressive winrate in recent weeks. An intriguing subplot lies in the styles of both clubs, as their recent encounters—most notably a draw and a Nice victory last Ligue 1 season—hint at an unpredictable meeting.

Watch out for Nice’s slick midfielder Tom Louchet, who continues to be the creative heartbeat, and Montpellier’s in-form striker Alexandre Mendy, who has netted four goals in his last five games.

A “hot stat” to note: Nice have averaged 15 total shots per match in their last five outings, highlighting a persistent attacking threat even if results have varied.

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Nice vs Montpellier prediction

The most valuable pick, considering current odds and trends, is supporting Nice to win in regular time (Moneyline 1). Despite Nice’s recent patchy results (three wins, two losses, two draws in the last seven), their home advantage and ability to create scoring chances—evidenced by their high shot volume and significant midfield contributions—could prove decisive.

Montpellier’s accelerated winrate (60% in their last five) cannot be overlooked, but defensive deficiencies (12 yellow cards, high foul count in the last five matches) might get exposed by Nice’s creative combinations. Both clubs have shown a flair for direct, transitional football, but Nice’s slightly higher pass accuracy and corner count signal a more proactive approach.

Nice’s attack often relies on overlapping fullbacks and a willingness to commit bodies forward, while Montpellier’s fast transitions and Mendy’s form mean they can’t be discounted on the break. However, Montpellier’s higher recent foul tally (82 over five matches) and yellow cards might disrupt their own tempo—expect cards to be a factor as both teams contest possession and territory vigorously.

Team Analysis

Nice: In their most recent game, a 2-2 draw with Brest, Nice showed both resilience and vulnerability. They fought back after conceding early, relying on Tom Louchet and Tiago Gouveia to spark their search for goals. A previous 0-1 defeat to Ludogorets hinted at defensive jitters, but the dominant 4-1 win over Nantes underscored their potential when the midfield clicks. With 10 goals in the last five, creative output is not the issue—defensive discipline and focus are paramount for this round.

Montpellier: Montpellier have found a sharp edge lately—a 3-1 win over Guingamp and a 2-0 against Bastia displayed their offensive variety, with Alexandre Mendy a constant threat. A blip came against Boulogne (0-1 loss), but the dominant 4-0 victory over Metz suggests this attack can hit in waves. They share Nice’s 10-goal tally over five games, but discipline could be an issue as their foul and yellow card rates are trending higher.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Nice vs Montpellier stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Nice the favourite

• Moneyline Nice 1.67-1.70 | Montpellier 4.33-4.59
• Draw 4.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 1.91
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.74 | No 2.06

Bookmakers position Nice as clear favourites, reflecting their historical home edge and better metric profile—especially in terms of chance creation and ball retention. However, the margin isn’t overwhelming, underscoring Montpellier’s attacking menace and the possibility of an unpredictable cup tie. Odds for BTTS are relatively low, suggesting both sides should get on the scoresheet, in line with recent trends.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Nice possible starting eleven

This projected 4-2-3-1 lineup is built around experience at the back (Clauss, Dante) and midfield stability (Louchet, Sanson). Gouveia and Cho offer dynamic width and finishing up top. Tom Louchet is crucial as the metronome in midfield, and watch for Jonathan Clauss’s attacking runs from right-back. Claude Puel will emphasise ball progression and using the flanks to stretch Montpellier.

Montpellier possible starting eleven

Montpellier’s likely 4-2-3-1 features stability in defence through Jullien and Omeragic. Savanier brings vision and composure to the midfield, while Mendy leads the line in red-hot form. Expect Montpellier to target quick transitions, with Issoufou and Savanier supporting the attack—Mendy’s blend of pace and sharp finishing is a major wild card.

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My take on the Match

The most balanced expert view guides us toward a closely contested fixture, but with Nice’s attacking variety, home advantage, and ability to create volume chances, they are rightly tipped as the primary pick. Montpellier’s creative midfielders and the form of Alexandre Mendy could ensure both teams contribute on the scoresheet. However, if Nice maintain midfield control and restrict counter-attacks, their progression is the likelier scenario.

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