Newells Old Boys vs Estudiantes LP Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Argentine Primera Division 2025 Match - 01.10.2025

The Argentine Primera Division regular season pushes into a vital phase as Newells Old Boys host Estudiantes LP at Rosario’s iconic Estadio Marcelo Bielsa on October 1, 2025 at 01:00 CEST. With both teams aiming to revive their league momentum, this clash carries substantial implications for table positioning and club morale. Newells, under Cristian Fabbiani’s stewardship, enter the contest striving to climb out of the lower reaches of the standings, while Estudiantes LP, managed by the tactically astute Eduardo Domínguez, look to solidify their credentials as outside contenders for the continental spots.

Among the array of emerging and veteran talents on display, keep a close eye on Newells’ experienced midfielder Éver Banega, whose orchestration in the center will be crucial for the hosts, and Estudiantes’ dynamic Santiago Ascacibar, a midfield enforcer whose ability to break lines and set the rhythm gives the visitors a distinctive edge. Their respective influences could well determine the trajectory of this fixture.

Hot stat: Estudiantes LP have delivered an impressive 29 corners over their last five matches, almost doubling Newells Old Boys (14), indicating an aggressive orientation in the final third and relentless pressure on opposition defenses.

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Newells Old Boys vs Estudiantes LP predictions

My best bet: Estudiantes LP to win or draw (Double Chance).
Why? Despite both teams encountering inconsistency lately, Estudiantes LP have showcased superior attacking intent and efficacy in the final third, as evidenced by their high corner count, greater pass accuracy (Estudiantes LP: 82 percent vs Newells: 78 percent), and significantly more total shots (54 to 28 in the last five matches). While their recent defensive lapses have been concerning, Estudiantes’ capacity to generate consistent pressure and control midfield bouts tips the value towards the visitors, especially when balancing the relatively balanced odds by major bookmakers.

On style: Newells Old Boys have leaned on a defensively structured yet possession-dominated (solid pass volumes), 4-2-3-1 setup. However, with just 3 goals in five outings and a mere 28 shots, attacking incisiveness has been lacking. The 33 fouls and 10 yellow cards in this same span point to a willingness to disrupt but also a vulnerability to conceding dangerous set pieces.
Estudiantes LP’s recent play has been marked by aggression—65 fouls and 9 yellows over five matches—which can disrupt rhythm but also expose them to counterattacks. Their ability to transition quickly from defense to attack, combined with steady ball progression, helps them recover from defensive errors, but could leave central spaces vulnerable if Newells exploits those transitional moments.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Newells Old Boys vs Estudiantes LP Most recent H2Hs

Reviewing their last two meetings, Estudiantes LP claimed a commanding 4-1 win in the 2024 Relegation round, while Newells Old Boys managed a 1-1 draw in this season’s earlier encounter. In both matches, Estudiantes generated more total shots and converted set pieces efficiently, while Newells struggled to assert control past the center-third. Notably, Estudiantes’ midfield dominance and higher tempo proved telling, although Newells’ defense found greater resilience in the more recent stalemate. The H2H pattern favors Estudiantes in open play, but Newells have shown capacity to adapt defensively.

🚨Read our full Newells Old Boys vs Estudiantes LP stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Estudiantes LP have won 16 out of 39 matches this year (41 percent win rate), while Newells have just 10 wins from 31 (32 percent).
• Estudiantes LP registered 65 fouls and earned 29 corners across their last five matches.
• Newells Old Boys managed only 3 goals and 28 shots in their last five matches, underscoring offensive struggles.
• Both clubs prefer a 4-2-3-1 setup, yet Estudiantes’ implementation has translated into more attacking volume.
• Bookmakers give Estudiantes a slight edge: 37 percent win probability to Newells’ 31 percent, with a tightly contested draw at 32 percent.

Newells Old Boys vs Estudiantes LP score prediction: 0-1

Expect a closely fought affair defined by midfield battles and disruptive play. Estudiantes LP’s superior creativity—through Ascacibar’s ball recovery and transition, plus Gastón Benedetti’s surging overlap—should tilt the balance. While Newells will aim for defensive discipline and look to Banega’s veteran control, Estudiantes’ persistent final-third activity and sharper set piece routines offer the edge for a narrow away victory.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Estudiantes LP the favourite

Bookmakers slightly favor Estudiantes LP, with the away victory trending at 2.50 odds, while Newells are set at 3.00. This reflects Estudiantes’ more consistent (if not always successful) attacking play, with goal lines hinting at a low-scoring affair (under 2.5 at 1.53). The high “No” for both teams to score (1.60) also mirrors both sides’ difficulties in front of goal, despite chances created.

Newells Old Boys vs Estudiantes LP Over/Under Analysis

• Estudiantes LP’s last five matches saw three end with under 2.5 goals.
• Newells Old Boys have failed to score more than one goal in their last four matches.
• Both sides have produced low total xG in recent fixtures, backing an “under” call.
• Estudiantes’ defensive lapses are less frequent against bottom-half teams like Newells.
• Corner count likely above average—Estudiantes attack with width and win many set pieces.

Newells Old Boys Preview

Newells Old Boys’ recent form leaves much to be desired, with only one win in their last four and painful defeats to Belgrano (0-3, 1-3) signaling both attacking impotence and defensive fragility. The lone bright spot was a 2-0 victory over Atletico Tucuman, where defensive shape held and transitions were sharper. Yet, goals have largely dried up, and offensive links, especially on the wings, have struggled to impose themselves. Tactical discipline is evident—yet creativity and urgency are missing.

Estudiantes LP Preview

Estudiantes LP enter Rosario after a chaotic but spirited set of fixtures. Their last win, a narrow 1-0 over Defensa y Justicia, was characterized by industrious midfield support and late-game management. Despite close losses to Flamengo RJ (1-2, 3-4) and River Plate (1-2), Estudiantes proved adept at generating multiple shooting chances, pushing high defensive lines, and orchestrating continuous attacks via overlapping fullbacks, particularly from Gastón Benedetti and Santiago Núñez. Set piece and crossing efficacy remain notable, but an aggressive playing style has occasionally backfired under pressure.

The Verdict

As TipsGG’s expert, I am tipping Estudiantes LP for a narrow away win. With a predicted 42 percent win probability (per our dedicated AI engine), their tactical discipline, higher attacking output, and dynamic midfield edge tip the scales just enough. Newells Old Boys, disciplined in setup, may frustrate, but unless they discover new attacking options, Estudiantes’ third-man runs and pressure promise the decisive moment.

How to watch Newells Old Boys vs Estudiantes LP

When? October 1, 2025 – 01:00 CEST
Where? Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario
How to watch: Check local Argentine sports networks or reputable streaming services covering the Primera Division.
Favorite: Estudiantes LP

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