Newcastle vs Hull Prediction: 19.09.2026 English Premier League

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Newcastle welcome Hull to St James’ Park on matchday five, and the table tells a story that the odds do not quite reflect. Hull sit fourth with eight points from four games, while Newcastle, the heavy favorites here, are down in twelfth having already dropped six goals in their last two outings. Jakirovic’s side have lost just twice in their last fifteen matches, a stat that should give Newcastle fans some pause despite the home advantage.

Harvey Barnes has been Newcastle’s most reliable outlet, scoring three goals across his last five appearances and looking sharp whenever given space in behind. For Hull, Mohamed Belloumi has quietly delivered two goals and an assist in four games, and his movement between the lines could cause problems for a Newcastle back four that has looked shaky at times this season.

Hot stat: Hull have lost only twice in their last fifteen matches under Jakirovic, a remarkably resilient record for a club ranked 214th globally, while Newcastle’s own recent form reads six wins, five losses and four draws over the same span, proof that the home side’s attacking output masks a defense that has been far from watertight.

Newcastle vs Hull prediction

We predict Newcastle to edge this one, but not comfortably. The bookmakers give the hosts a 59% implied chance, and that price looks fair given St James’ Park’s pull and Newcastle’s five-goal, three-win return from their last five games at home. Hull’s away form has leaned heavily on draws though, and that unbeaten habit is not something we would casually bet against.

Newcastle have racked up 67 fouls and 37 corners across their last five matches, a sign of a team that presses high and forces the issue in wide areas. Hull, by contrast, have committed fewer fouls (53) but picked up more yellow cards (15 against Newcastle’s 9), suggesting rash last-ditch challenges rather than sustained physicality. Newcastle’s completed-pass tally puts their accuracy near 84%, compared to roughly 79% for Hull, a gap that should let the hosts dictate tempo, though Hull’s compact shape has kept them hard to break down all season.

Team Analysis

Newcastle arrive off the back of a 1-4 defeat to Leeds, their heaviest loss in weeks and a match where the back line simply could not cope with quick transitions. Before that they beat Millwall 1-0 and drew 2-2 with Bournemouth, results that paint a picture of a team capable of good spells but prone to leaking goals in bunches. In our preview of Leeds vs Newcastle we backed the hosts to avoid defeat on the double chance market alongside over 2.5 goals, and while the goals did flow, the 4-1 scoreline went firmly against our main call. That result should serve as a reminder that Newcastle’s defense is still a work in progress under Jaissle.

Hull go into this one off a 2-2 draw with Chelsea, another example of their habit of sharing the points rather than losing outright. Before that they held Aston Villa 0-0 and lost narrowly 0-1 to Sunderland, results that show a side comfortable playing conservative, low-event football. Belloumi’s goal threat aside, Hull’s approach seems built on patience and defensive discipline rather than chasing games, which fits a club punching well above its ranking this season.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Newcastle vs Hull stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Newcastle the favourite

• Moneyline Newcastle 1.61 | Hull 5.24
• Draw 4.45

The market leans hard on Newcastle, and a home price near 1.61 reflects both St James’ Park form and Hull’s underdog status on paper. That gap feels slightly wide to us though, given Hull’s draw-heavy recent record and Newcastle’s leaky defense against Leeds. Perhaps the smarter play sits in the goals markets rather than the straight result, where the value looks thinner than the standings might suggest.

Possible Starting Lineups

Newcastle possible starting eleven

Jaissle’s likely 4-2-3-1 keeps Willock and Miley shielding the back four, freeing Murphy and Ramsey to support Barnes from wide areas. Barnes remains the player to watch given his goal output, while Botman’s return minutes anchor a defense searching for stability after the Leeds defeat.

Hull possible starting eleven

Jakirovic sticks with a mirrored 4-2-3-1, Slater and Gourna-Douath sitting deep to protect Egan and the back line. Belloumi carries the attacking burden alone up top, and his link-up with Thomas down the flank could be Hull’s best route to catching Newcastle on the break.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict a narrow Newcastle win, likely 2-1, with goals arriving at both ends given how open Newcastle’s last two matches have been and how sharp Belloumi has looked for Hull. To be honest, Hull’s resilience makes us wary of backing the hosts too heavily on the moneyline alone, so combining Newcastle to win with over 2.5 goals and BTTS feels like the more balanced route into this fixture. Barnes remains our standout pick for anytime scorer given his current run of form.

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