Levi Rothermund
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Two English sides meet in a pre-season friendly on August 12, with Newcastle entering as the bookmakers’ slight favourite. What makes this one interesting is the recent head-to-head record: Everton have won two of the last four Premier League meetings between these clubs, including a 3-2 victory at Newcastle’s ground in the 2025/26 season. Matthias Jaissle’s side will be keen to assert themselves after a mixed run of results, while David Moyes has his Everton looking more organised in their last outing against Stuttgart, even if they lost 3-1.
For Newcastle, Harvey Barnes is the standout name to watch after scoring in their most recent friendly against Valencia. He showed good movement and a clinical finish in limited time. On the Everton side, keep an eye on the performances coming through midfield, where Jacob Ramsey (on loan or signed by this stage) has been contributing assists and covering ground well across the centre of the pitch for Newcastle, though Everton’s own attacking midfield shape under Moyes tends to generate chances through wide areas.
Hot stat: Newcastle registered 17 corner kicks in their last recorded match, an unusually high figure that points to sustained attacking pressure and suggests they force play into wide areas repeatedly.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:15 CEST |
Newcastle vs Everton Prediction
Newcastle are the value pick here. Their last 30 days show a 50% win rate across four matches, compared to Everton’s 40% from five outings. The bookmakers peg Newcastle at roughly 41% probability, and the average odds of around 2.15 reflect that fairly. Everton’s most recent result, a 3-1 loss to Stuttgart, showed defensive fragility against a side pressing high, and Newcastle under Jaissle tend to do exactly that.
Newcastle’s 3-4-1-2 formation gives them numerical superiority in central areas and allows the wing-backs to push forward, which explains that high corner count. Everton’s 4-2-3-1 can absorb pressure but relies on a solid double pivot, and if that gets bypassed early, their shape tends to drop deep. Newcastle recorded 8 fouls in their last match with zero yellow cards, suggesting a disciplined but physical approach. Everton’s detail stats for the last five matches are unavailable, so we can’t make a direct comparison, but their recent results suggest a team still building rhythm rather than one firing on all cylinders.
We think Newcastle win this one at home odds of around 2.10-2.15, which offers genuine value given their superior recent form and the structural advantage their formation creates against a 4-2-3-1 that needs time to settle.
- Main tip: Newcastle to win at odds of approximately 2.10-2.15
- Value secondary tip: Over 2.5 goals given Newcastle’s attacking output and Everton’s defensive wobble against Stuttgart
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Newcastle to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Newcastle’s last month has been uneven but points toward an upward curve. They beat Valencia 2-1 in their most recent outing, a solid result against a side ranked considerably higher in the global standings. Before that, a heavy 4-1 loss to Bristol City was a clear low point, and a 1-1 draw with Gateshead showed some defensive looseness. The 3-0 win over Darlington was comfortable but came against much weaker opposition. Over four matches in the last 30 days, two wins, one loss, and one draw tells you this is a team that can perform but hasn’t yet found full consistency. The Valencia win is the most meaningful data point heading into this match.
Everton’s recent run is harder to read positively. Five matches in the last 30 days produced two wins, two losses, and one draw. The 4-0 win over Dundee was comfortable, and the 2-1 victory over Hamburger SV showed attacking intent, but the 3-1 loss to Stuttgart and the 1-0 defeat to Stoke City are concerning. The 0-0 draw with Bolton suggests Moyes is still working on an attacking identity. Across five matches, Everton have looked decent in bursts but have struggled for sustained control, and their goals-against column is growing in the more competitive friendlies.
🚨Check out our dedicated Newcastle vs Everton stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Newcastle the Favourite
- Moneyline Newcastle 2.10 | Everton 2.95
- Draw 3.60
The moneyline odds for Newcastle around 2.10 are reasonable given their form edge and home advantage. Everton at 2.95 is a fair reflection of their inconsistency over the last month. The draw at 3.60 looks slightly long given how competitive this fixture has been historically, but in a friendly context where rotations are likely, a draw is a real possibility if both managers use their squads heavily in the second half. Honestly, the Newcastle win at 2.10 is the bet with the clearest logic behind it.
Possible Starting Lineups
Newcastle Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nick Pope
- DF: Fabian Schär, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall
- MF: Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock, Sean Steur, Jacob Ramsey
- MF: Anthony Elanga
- FW: Harvey Barnes, Leo Shahar
Newcastle have been deploying a 3-4-1-2 in recent matches, and the players listed above reflect the most consistent starters from their available data. Nick Pope and Sven Botman anchor the defensive structure, with Lewis Hall pushing forward regularly from the left side. Jacob Ramsey has been operating as the attacking midfielder in the number ten role, contributing assists. Harvey Barnes is the key forward threat after scoring against Valencia, and Anthony Elanga provides pace and direct running from a wider position. Jaissle will likely rotate after 60 minutes given the friendly nature of the match, but this group looks like the first-choice eleven to start.
Everton Possible Starting Eleven
Everton’s player data for the last five matches is unavailable, so we are unable to confirm individual player appearances or build a reliable projected lineup based on match statistics. David Moyes is expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape based on their recent tactical approach, but naming specific starters without reliable data would be speculative.
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Newcastle. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Newcastle come into this friendly with a clearer attacking identity, a formation that generates corners and wide pressure, and a recent win over Valencia that shows they can perform against quality opposition. Everton’s defensive record in recent weeks has been patchy, conceding three to Stuttgart and one each to Stoke and Bolton. The head-to-head record is competitive, but this match favours Newcastle on current trajectory.
We think Newcastle win 2-1. Their 3-4-1-2 will create enough chances, Barnes is in form, and Everton’s defensive shape under Moyes typically concedes at least once when pressed high. Both teams to score looks likely given Everton’s ability to threaten on the counter, and the corner count should be high given Newcastle’s attacking style. The Newcastle win is the pick, with over 2.5 goals as a strong supporting market.
