Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions: Odds and betting tips for UEFA Champions League Match - 05.11.2025

The UEFA Champions League League Phase presses on, and all eyes will be on St James’ Park in Newcastle as Eddie Howe’s Magpies host Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic Bilbao on November 5, 2025, with the kick-off set for 22:00 CEST. This encounter is pivotal for both clubs as they chase crucial points in one of Europe’s most competitive group stages, with the electric atmosphere of St James’ Park promising an intense night of elite football in the heart of England.

Newcastle’s dynamic forward Anthony Gordon and Bilbao’s clinical finisher Gorka Guruzeta stand out as players to watch. Gordon’s relentless pressing and ability to carve out chances for himself and his teammates have made him a constant threat, while Guruzeta’s movement and finishing touch can crack any defensive unit if given space.

Notably, Newcastle have recorded an impressive 75 total shots in their last five matches, reflecting their attacking intent and versatility in approach—a “hot stat” that underscores just how proactive their play has been coming into this fixture.

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Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao predictions

My best bet: Newcastle to win. The hosts are riding a 67% win rate over their last six matches, boasting a sharper attack (nine goals in their previous five) and a home record that stands among the best in the Champions League’s league phase. Bilbao, although resolute and well-organised under Valverde, arrive with just two wins from their last five matches and a lower scoring record. The Magpies’ superior pass accuracy (85% to Bilbao’s 81%), fewer defensive lapses, and greater ability to convert chances should give them the edge. Given the context of the group and recent form, the ‘home win’ market offers the clearest value.

Newcastle’s preferred 4-3-3 system tends to maximise ball possession, but also opens them up to counterattacks—something Bilbao’s quick transition players could exploit. Both teams have been disciplined, but the Basques average two more fouls and slightly more yellow cards per game, hinting at a combative midfield battle. Expect Newcastle to control the rhythm with crisp passing, while Bilbao’s pressing could force turnovers, especially in wide areas.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao Most recent H2Hs

Historically, Newcastle and Athletic Bilbao have seldom met in official European competition, but both sides share a reputation for robust, pressing football and high defensive discipline. In their most recent Champions League matches, Newcastle have outperformed Bilbao in shot creation and passing accuracy, but Bilbao’s higher foul and free kick count suggests a physical edge which could alter the ebb and flow of this contest. The Magpies, bolstered by their home crowd, have clearly done more with their possession in prior clashes, while Bilbao have leaned on their set-piece strength and tactical flexibility.

🚨Read our full Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Newcastle average 15 total shots per game in their last five fixtures.
• Athletic Bilbao have scored from a set-piece in three of their previous five UEFA matches.
• Bilbao have collected 10 yellow cards in their last five games, compared to Newcastle’s 8.
• The Magpies boast 33 corner kicks over their last five fixtures—indicating strong flank play and attacking persistence.
• Gorka Guruzeta is Athletic Bilbao’s form striker with three goals in his last five appearances.

Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao score prediction: 2-1

Expect a close, fiercely contested affair. Newcastle have shown both attacking thrust and the ability to manage spells out of possession, with Anthony Gordon’s movement and Nick Woltemade’s presence in the final third likely to test the Bilbao defensive line. Bilbao will rely on Guruzeta and quick releases from Oihan Sancet, but Newcastle’s tactical flexibility and deeper bench could prove decisive. My prediction: Newcastle 2, Athletic Bilbao 1.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Newcastle the favourite

The odds strongly favour Newcastle, with the hosts given an average 62 percent win probability by leading bookmakers. Bilbao’s price reflects their underdog status on English soil and a recent dip in continental form. The Over/Under is finely balanced, but trends point toward goals as both teams have attacking form and vulnerabilities in transition. Both Teams To Score stands at evens, underlining the expectation that Bilbao could cause some problems despite Newcastle’s edge.

Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao Over/Under Analysis

• Newcastle’s last five Champs League/league fixtures: four have gone over 2.5 goals.
• Bilbao have been part of two matches in their last five featuring over 2.5 goals.
• Both sides frequently create 10+ shots per game, indicating potential for a lively attacking spectacle.
• Given both teams’ set-piece threat, expect corners and goalscoring opportunities from dead balls.

Newcastle Preview

Newcastle have experienced a positive run across their last six games, recording four wins and just two losses—a trend capped by a hard-fought 2-0 win over Tottenham and a clinical 3-0 dispatching of Benfica. Their attacking trident, usually led by Gordon and complemented by Woltemade and Murphy, is both energetic and consistent. Defensively, Newcastle have conceded a handful of goals (eight in five matches), but their ball progression, particularly through midfield orchestrators like Bruno Guimarães, remains outstanding. They have tended to dictate tempo and wear down opponents with sustained spells of possession.

Newcastle possible starting eleven

Athletic Bilbao Preview

Bilbao approach this tie after recently overcoming Qarabag 3-1, though their consistency has wavered—defeats against Getafe and Real Sociedad have underscored defensive frailties. Valverde’s men maintain an uncompromising midfield press, but this can overstretch their defensive line, as seen in the seven goals conceded from their last five games. Gorka Guruzeta has emerged as their key man in front of goal, but Oihan Sancet and Alex Berenguer must also create chances and support transitions for Bilbao to compete at St James’ Park.

Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As TipsGG experts, our main pick is a Newcastle win, with a 62% probability as calculated by our dedicated AI prediction engine. The Magpies’ recent form, home advantage, and offensive depth should prove sufficient. However, expect Bilbao to remain competitive—pressing high and seeking set-piece opportunities—but they may find the Magpies’ creative midfield and rhythm hard to disrupt.

How to watch Newcastle vs Athletic Bilbao

• When? 05.11.2025, 22:00 CEST
• Where? St James’ Park, Newcastle
• How to watch: Streaming options to be confirmed by official UEFA broadcasters and local listings.
• Favorite: Newcastle

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