Rafael Nogueira
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
New York Red Bulls host St. Louis City at Sports Illustrated Stadium with the two clubs heading in opposite directions. The Red Bulls sit 17th, out of playoff reach with a negative goal difference, while St. Louis City occupy 5th place and arrive unbeaten in four of their last five outings. The gap in current momentum is the real story here, St. Louis have won five of their last seven games while New York have split their last six almost evenly between wins, draws and losses.
Rafael Navarro Leal has been the sharpest finisher on view lately, scoring four goals across his last four St. Louis appearances. On the home side, Emil Forsberg remains the player most likely to unlock a stubborn defense given his experience in tight games. Neither goalkeeper faces an easy night, but both have been reasonably busy in recent weeks.
Hot stat: St. Louis City have scored 15 goals in their last five matches combined, five times more than New York Red Bulls’ tally of 3 over the same stretch, a gap that tells most of the story before kickoff.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Major League Soccer 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:30 CEST |
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City prediction
We back St. Louis City to win this one, and the number that convinces us most is not the table position but the underlying form curve. St. Louis have lost none of their last four matches while scoring at least two goals in every single one of them. New York, meanwhile, have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last five games. Backing the away win at the prices on offer looks like the sharpest angle, perhaps with a small side stake on St. Louis to also cover a -1 handicap given how comfortably they have been winning recently.
St. Louis average roughly 88 fouls and 11 yellow cards across their last five matches compared to New York’s 73 fouls and 11 cards, a sign the away side plays a slightly more physical, higher-tempo game without picking up extra bookings. Their pass accuracy sits marginally above New York’s (around 85% versus 84%), which lines up with their superior shot output, 61 shots to New York’s 53 over the same run. None of these numbers scream a cagey match, St. Louis create chances at a higher rate and should be backed to keep doing so here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | St. Louis City -1 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
New York Red Bulls have won just two, drawn two and lost two of their last six matches, a mixed run that mirrors their season-long struggle to find consistency. Their most recent game ended in a 1-0 win over New York City, a result that offered a rare clean sheet but came against a side sitting even lower in form. Before that they beat Columbus Crew 1-0 as well, though a 0-2 loss to Los Angeles and a goalless draw with Seattle sandwiched between those two wins show how fragile their attacking output has been, just three goals scored across the whole five-game sample.
St. Louis City arrive on the back of a 3-1 win over Toronto FC, their fourth win in five games and a result that continued a pattern of scoring at least two goals per match. They beat Colorado 3-0 and Minnesota 4-2 either side of a 2-2 draw with Portland, and closed that stretch with a 3-1 win over Vancouver. Five games, fifteen goals scored, only one match without a win, this is exactly the kind of form that should worry a struggling New York backline.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City have no recent competitive meetings on record ahead of this fixture, so no head-to-head statistics can be drawn from past encounters between these two sides.
🚨Check out our dedicated New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City stats page for more info.
New York Red Bulls. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: St. Louis City the favourite
- Moneyline New York Red Bulls 3.35 | St. Louis City 1.90
- Draw 4.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 goals odds vary by book, generally priced short given St. Louis’ scoring rate
- BTTS (both teams to score) priced close to even given New York’s struggles finding the net
Bookmakers price St. Louis City as clear favourites at around 1.90, matching the market’s average implied probability of 49% against New York’s 28%. That gap looks fair given the underlying numbers, St. Louis have outscored, outshot and generally outplayed most opponents over the last month while New York have leaked goals at home all season. We see little value backing the draw at 4.00, this fixture profile rarely settles level when one side is this out of form defensively.
Possible Starting Lineups
New York Red Bulls possible starting eleven
- GK: Ethan Horvath
- DF: Dylan Nealis, Tim Parker, Julian Bazan, Matthew Dos Santos
- MF: Ronald Donkor, Adri Mehmeti, Cameron Harper, Mohammed Sofo
- FW: Emil Forsberg, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
Michael Bradley tends to favour a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Donkor and Mehmeti screening the back four while Forsberg and Harper look to combine centrally. Choupo-Moting leads the line and remains the player New York need to find quickly given their goal drought.
St. Louis City possible starting eleven
- GK: Roman Bürki
- DF: Timo Baumgartl, Fallou Fall, Lukas MacNaughton, Tomas Totland
- MF: Christopher Durkin, Dante Polvara, Daniel Edelman
- FW: Carlo Holse, Rafael Navarro Leal, Simon Becher
Yoann Damet sticks with the 4-3-3 that has fueled this run of form, Durkin and Polvara covering ground centrally while Navarro Leal and Becher rotate through the front line. Totland’s forward runs from left-back add an extra scoring threat that New York’s defense has struggled to track this season.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
St. Louis City. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a St. Louis City win, likely by a two-goal margin given their scoring form and New York’s leaky home record. To be honest, backing the away side straight up or on a light handicap looks like the smartest route into this match, with the goals market leaning Over 2.5 given St. Louis’ recent output. New York’s home form simply does not offer enough resistance against a side scoring at this rate, and our team sees this as one of the clearer reads on the MLS card this week.
