New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Prediction: 21.05.2025 United States Open Cup Preview

It’s the business end of the 2025 United States Open Cup as New England Revolution host Chicago Fire at Gillette Stadium in a Round of 16 clash. Both sides bring recent momentum into this high-stakes fixture, with New England unbeaten in their last six and Chicago entering on the back of an emphatic 4-1 win against Charlotte. While New England boasts an impressive home record, Chicago’s attacking edge has been particularly sharp in recent games, making for an enticing tie between two tactically disciplined teams.

A pair of standout players will be critical to shaping this match. For New England, attacking midfielder Carles Gil has been the creative and scoring engine, netting three goals in his last four appearances. On the Chicago side, Hugo Cuypers leads the forward line and is fresh from a prolific stretch with three goals in his last five, supported ably by Brian Gutierrez’s playmaking ability. Their form and influence will be central in deciding who progresses.

Hot stat: Chicago Fire have scored a resounding 12 goals in their last five matches, outpacing every other side left in this stage of the cup.

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New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire prediction

The best value prediction here is a high-scoring affair with both teams on the scoresheet and a slight edge for New England Revolution, particularly given their unbeaten streak at home and greater defensive stability. Chicago’s recent offensive form cannot be ignored, but their defensive lapses are a concern. Expect a tactical battle, but the hosts’ ability to control midfield and transitions gives them the edge, especially with Carles Gil dictating play.

Statistically, both teams demonstrate aggression: Chicago have committed 71 fouls and collected ten yellow cards in their last five, slightly above New England’s 65 fouls and nine cautions. Both favour a 4-3-3 setup, pressing hard but also prone to leaving spaces at the back. New England average a better pass accuracy (65 percent vs 61 percent), which translates into more effective possession, while Chicago depend more on direct attacks and quick transitions. This dynamic could see New England control large stretches but face constant counter-attacking threats.

Team Analysis

New England Revolution: New England’s most recent match ended 0-0 against San Jose Earthquakes, showing defensive fortitude but some frustration in the final third. Prior to that, a 3-3 thriller with Orlando City and a 2-1 victory against Rhode Island demonstrated their attacking depth, with Carles Gil and Tomás Chancalay pivotal in chance creation. Their recent pattern blends resilient defending with spells of high-tempo attacking football, often finishing matches with more possession and higher pass accuracy. Set-piece defence and conversion have been solid as well, evidenced by 17 corners won across the last five games.

Chicago Fire: Chicago’s confidence is soaring after a comprehensive 4-1 win over Charlotte, with Hugo Cuypers leading the attacking charge. Wins over Detroit (4-0) and Atlanta United (2-1) further reflect their offensive resurgence. However, defensive vulnerabilities remain—especially highlighted by a heavy 2-7 loss to Nashville earlier in the month. The Fire’s hallmark is relentless attacking, putting up 89 shots in the last five matches, but this comes at a cost, often leaving them exposed on transitions and set pieces.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: New England Revolution the favourite

• Moneyline New England Revolution 2.38 | Chicago Fire 2.60
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.68 | No 2.10

Bookmakers reflect the tight nature of this tie, giving the slight edge to New England Revolution owing to home advantage and their unbeaten recent run. Both teams are capable of winning in regulation, evidenced by the competitive odds. With attacking talent in form and both defences occasionally error-prone, backing goals and both teams to score aligns with the statistical output from their last five games.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Caleb Porter is expected to persist with a 4-3-3 formation, emphasizing midfield possession and width. Alex Bono’s stability in goal supports a defence of Bye, Ceballos, Hughes, and Fofana, each offering a blend of pace and positional sense. The midfield trio is headlined by the influential Carles Gil, ably partnered by Yusuf and Polster—all contributing defensively and creatively. Up front, Chancalay, Urruti, and Campana will be the focal points, with Chancalay’s ability to cut inside from the left making him a player to watch for key moments.

Chicago also line up in a 4-3-3, with Chris Brady as their shot-stopper. Dean, Pineda, Elliott, and Gutman bring experience and defensive flexibility. In midfield, Gutierrez’s creativity and Oregel’s engine will be crucial, while Haile-Selassie supplies additional width. The front three of Zinckernagel, Cuypers, and Bamba is packed with pace and goals, making Cuypers in particular a key threat that New England must contain.

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My take on the Match

My pick for this match: New England Revolution Draw No Bet. The hosts’ home resilience — coupled with Carles Gil’s creative spark — positions them well to edge this contest, although Chicago’s offensive momentum will ensure a closely contested affair. Expect both teams to score in an open game, but New England’s superior organization and midfield composure could prove the difference.

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