Netherlands (w) vs France (w) Prediction: 13.07.2025 UEFA European Women's Championship Preview

Group D of UEFA European Women’s Championship 2025 comes to a decisive conclusion in Bergen, as the Netherlands (w) aim to revive their knockout hopes against the formidable France (w) side. With both tactical ideologues—Andries Jonker and Laurent Bonadei—at the helm, the clash at Brann Stadion isn’t just about three points, but serves as a litmus test for tournament ambitions. An intriguing subplot: France have played with remarkable consistency, while the Dutch seek redemption following a heavy defeat to England.

Look for Virgil van Dijk-esque reliability from Dutch central defender Veerle Buurman, whose defensive interventions have been a wall for the Netherlands, and the dynamic Kadidiatou Diani for France, whose ability to unlock defenses makes her an ever-present threat in the attacking third.

A ‘hot stat’ to note: France are the only side in Group D to maintain a perfect win record in 2025, riding a stunning 10-match unbeaten streak this year. That momentum may well be the cornerstone of their edge entering this encounter.

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Netherlands (w) vs France (w) prediction

France (w) emerge as clear pre-match favourites, and with good reason: their midfield, anchored by Grace Geyoro and Sandie Toletti, controls the pitch with clinical precision and relentless energy. They also maintain a fluid attacking approach with multiple creators and finishers, making them difficult to shut down.

Netherlands (w), possessing technical flair with players such as Vivianne Miedema up front and Victoria Pelova orchestrating in midfield, are capable of flashes of brilliance but have wavered against top-tier opposition—illustrated by a recent 0-4 loss to England (w). Injuries and defensive lapses have led to a negative goal difference, signaling areas for tactical adjustment.

The French style mixes high pressing and disciplined passing, averaging 798 passes in their last five matches and a stellar pass accuracy of 84.6 percent, even as they accumulate more yellow cards (3), a marker of physical intent. The Dutch, meanwhile, rely on combinations (746 passes, 82.6 percent accuracy), and though more reserved in their tackling (1 yellow card), their 18 fouls indicate a willingness to disrupt opposition build-up. Expect the French to seize control early, with the Dutch aiming for rapid counterattacks, particularly in wide areas.

Team Analysis

Netherlands (w): Their most recent outing—a dispiriting 0-4 defeat to England (w)—highlighted their defensive vulnerabilities, conceding early and struggling to regain midfield control. The Dutch did, however, post a resolute 3-0 win against Wales (w) before that, driven by the movement of Miedema and intelligent runs from Pelova. Their attack can be potent, but the gap between midfield and defense, especially against dynamic teams, remains a concern. In their last five matches, they’ve seen a slight dip in pass accuracy and shooting efficiency, reflected by just 3 goals and 23 total shots.

France (w): Consistency has defined the French campaign under Bonadei. Their 4-1 triumph over Wales (w) showcased attacking flair, while a disciplined 2-1 victory over England (w) spotlighted their ability to grind out results under pressure. With 6 goals and 29 shots in the latest five, France combine attacking innovation with defensive discipline. Their ability to manage transitions and maintain formation discipline has been unmatched so far in the group phase.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Netherlands (w) vs France (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: France (w) the favourite

• Moneyline Netherlands (w) 4.80 | France (w) 1.66
• Draw 4.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.70 | No 2.10

The odds strongly back France (w) as the outright favourites, courtesy of their current unbeaten run and their attacking output. Netherlands (w) are priced as outsiders due to recent inconsistencies and struggles in breaking down defensively compact teams. The balanced odds for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals reflect the scoring potential on both sides, but the French have demonstrated greater reliability in turning chances into goals.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Netherlands (w) possible starting eleven

• GK: Daphne van Domselaar
• DF: Veerle Buurman, Caitlin Dijkstra, Kerstin Casparij, Lynn Wilms
• MF: Jackie Groenen, Victoria Pelova, Danielle van de Donk
• FW: Esmee Brugts, Vivianne Miedema, Lineth Beerensteyn

The Dutch are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 system, leaning on the leadership of van Domselaar in goal and the versatility of Pelova and van de Donk in midfield. Miedema remains their central threat up front, ably supported by Brugts and Beerensteyn. The defense—anchored by Buurman and Dijkstra—will need to rebound from their last outing, with Groenen adding balance in transitions and ball retention.

France (w) possible starting eleven

• GK: Pauline Peyraud Magnin
• DF: Selma Bacha, Elisa De Almeida, Alice Sombath, Maelle Lakrar
• MF: Sandie Toletti, Grace Geyoro, Sakina Karchaoui
• FW: Kadidiatou Diani, Clara Mateo, Melvine Malard

France maintain their 4-3-3 template, built on a foundation of passing precision and aggressive pressing. Peyraud Magnin’s reliability in goal, combined with Bacha and Sombath’s composure in defense, gives added security, while Karchaoui and Geyoro grant creative impetus in midfield. Watch for Diani and Mateo to interchange positions in attack, posing issues for the Dutch back line.

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My take on the Match

Given France’s relentless form and multiple threats in attack, a France (w) win with a -1 Asian handicap offers strong value. While the Dutch possess individual creativity, their lack of defensive cohesion against higher-quality teams leaves them exposed. Expect a dynamic start, with France dictating possession and probing for weaknesses. A 3-1 French victory is my main pick, underlining France’s readiness to make a deep tournament run—and providing punters with a clear and compelling betting opportunity.

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