Liam Duckstein
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Neom SC and Al Qadsiah meet in the Saudi Pro League’s early rounds, and the gap between these two sides is wider than the standings alone suggest. Neom sit fifth with a perfect six points from two games, yet the bookmakers give them only a 20% chance of winning here. Al Qadsiah, coached by Brendan Rodgers, arrive with 58% win probability and a significantly stronger world club ranking. The interesting detail is that Neom have won all six of their matches in the last 30 days, while Al Qadsiah have gone two wins and two losses in the same period. Form points one way; quality metrics point another.
Two players stand out for this fixture. Alexandre Lacazette has been in sharp form for Neom SC, scoring three goals and contributing two assists across the last three matches, carrying the most direct goal threat Christophe Galtier’s side can offer. For Al Qadsiah, Mateo Retegui brings proven finishing quality with two goals in three recent appearances, and his movement inside the box will test Neom’s three-man defensive line throughout the 90 minutes.
Al Qadsiah have registered 30 corner kicks across their last five matches, which is a striking figure and speaks to how aggressively Rodgers’ side attacks wide areas. That set-piece volume gives them a consistent secondary route to goal that Neom will need to manage carefully.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Saudi Pro League 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | King Khalid Sport City Stadium, Tabuk |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:40 CEST |
Neom SC vs Al Qadsiah Prediction
Al Qadsiah are the clear selection here. They have a superior club ranking, a stronger year-long record with 64% winrate compared to Neom’s 43%, and they have beaten Neom in both of their most recent head-to-head meetings. Rodgers has built a squad with real depth in midfield and attack, and the 4-4-2 setup gives them balance that Neom’s 3-1-4-2 will struggle to exploit at this level.
Neom’s perfect run over the last 30 days came against modest opposition, including two matches against Al-Faisaly and a friendly against Las Palmas. Al Qadsiah represent a significant step up. The visitors’ 67 total shots in five games compared to Neom’s 30 tells a clear story about who controls matches and creates sustained pressure.
In terms of discipline and style, both teams foul at a similar rate, with Neom committing 36 fouls and Al Qadsiah 35 across five matches. Neom’s pass accuracy sits at a lower level relative to Al Qadsiah’s 1,659 passes and 1,435 accurate ones, suggesting Rodgers’ team will dominate possession and dictate the tempo. That control should translate into goals. We predict Al Qadsiah to win this match, and the goal total to go over 2.5.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Al Qadsiah to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Neom SC come into this match on the back of a 2-0 win over Al-Faisaly, their second consecutive victory against the same opponent. Before that, they beat Al-Fayha 2-1 in what was a tighter affair. Their five-match run includes a friendly win over Las Palmas and a 4-1 result against Al Arabi, so the confidence is there, but the quality of opposition has been modest. Lacazette and Saïd Benrahma have been the primary creative outlets, combining for five goals and three assists between them. The concern is defensive: Neom allowed goals in three of their last five matches, and their interception count of 24 across those games is below what will be needed against Al Qadsiah’s attack.
Al Qadsiah’s most recent league outing ended in a 0-1 defeat to Al Ittihad, which snapped a run of positive results. Before that, they demolished Al-Tai 5-0 and beat Al Shabab 3-1, showing they are capable of ruthless performances. The loss to Levante in a friendly (0-1) and a draw with Girona (0-0) are not alarming given the calibre of those opponents. Retegui, Julián Quiñones, and Christopher Bonsu Baah form a forward line with genuine variety: pace, physicality, and technical quality. Julian Weigl and Otávio provide control in midfield, and Nacho Fernández offers experience at the back. This is a squad built for the top half of the table, and it shows in their numbers.
🚨Check out our dedicated Neom SC vs Al Qadsiah stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Al Qadsiah the Favourite
- Moneyline Neom SC 4.90 | Al Qadsiah 1.53
- Draw 4.33
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds on Al Qadsiah sit between 1.53 and 1.61 across major bookmakers, which reflects their status as comfortable favourites. Pinnacle, typically the sharpest market, offers 4.90 on Neom, confirming the market has little faith in the home side. The draw odds of around 4.00 to 4.33 are fair given the head-to-head trend and Al Qadsiah’s tendency to be decisive. To be honest, the value here is not in backing Al Qadsiah at short odds but perhaps in the goals market, where their shot volume and corner count suggest a productive night for the visitors.
Possible Starting Lineups
Neom SC Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Marcin Bułka
- DF: Nathan Zeze, Malang Sarr, Islam Ahmed Hawsawi, Mohammed Al-Burayk
- MF: Amadou Koné, Abdulmalik Al-Oyayari, Georgios Masouras, Alaa Hejji
- FW: Alexandre Lacazette, Saïd Benrahma
Galtier has leaned on a 3-1-4-2 shape in recent matches, and Bułka is the first-choice goalkeeper with nine saves across three appearances. Lacazette is the focal point up front, and Benrahma’s movement off the ball adds a second dimension. Amadou Koné provides the defensive anchor in midfield with seven fouls and three interceptions across three games, showing his willingness to disrupt. Khalil Al-Absi is a useful option off the bench if Neom need width or a change of pace.
Al Qadsiah Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ahmed Al-Kassar
- DF: Nacho Fernández, Gastón Álvarez, Jehad Thakri, Yasir Al-Shahrani
- MF: Julian Weigl, Otávio, Musab Al-Juwayr, Ibrahim Mohannashi
- FW: Mateo Retegui, Julián Quiñones
Rodgers’ preferred 4-4-2 gives Al Qadsiah a solid platform through the middle. Weigl and Otávio have been consistent starters, combining for 296 passes and 14 free kicks across three games. Gastón Álvarez is worth noting as a defender who contributes going forward, having scored once and made four interceptions. Christopher Bonsu Baah is perhaps the most dynamic option in attack with his 56 lost balls indicating how aggressively he runs at defenders, and he could feature from the start or as an impact substitute. Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani adds another goal threat from deeper positions with one goal and one assist in three appearances.
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Al Qadsiah. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Al Qadsiah are the better team on paper, in the head-to-head record, and in the underlying numbers. They have won both previous meetings with Neom, scoring four goals and conceding just one. Their shot volume, corner count, and pass accuracy across the last five matches all outclass what Neom SC have produced. Lacazette can cause problems in any game, and Neom’s recent winning run gives them confidence, but this feels like a step too far for a side ranked far below their opponents globally.
We predict Al Qadsiah to win, with both teams finding the net. The corner market also looks attractive given Al Qadsiah’s 30 corners in five games. The most straightforward call is Al Qadsiah to win and over 2.5 goals in the match, with BTTS adding value if Lacazette continues his recent scoring form.
