Necaxa vs Chivas Guadalajara Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Liga MX Clausura - 23.04.2026

The Liga MX 2026 Clausura regular season continues with a high-stakes clash as Necaxa hosts Chivas Guadalajara at the iconic Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes. The match is set for April 23, 2026, with a kickoff scheduled at 05:05 CEST. As the tournament edges towards its finale, both sides are eager for points Necaxa striving to solidify their mid-table status and Chivas Guadalajara fighting to retain their lead at the summit.

Two influential players to watch in this encounter are Tomás Badaloni of Necaxa, who has netted twice in his last three outings, and Bryan Gonzalez of Chivas Guadalajara, whose attacking contributions and versatility provide a consistent threat on the flanks. Both will be pivotal as their teams look to assert dominance in this critical fixture.

Notably, Chivas Guadalajara have doubled Necaxa’s goal output over their last five matches (8 to 4), underlining their superior offensive form a “hot stat” that could heavily influence proceedings in Aguascalientes.

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Necaxa vs Chivas Guadalajara predictions

Me best bet: Chivas Guadalajara to win.

Chivas Guadalajara approach this fixture with impressive momentum having won 12 out of their last 17 matches in 2026 and sitting atop the Liga MX standings. Their dynamic attack, averaging over two goals per game, is balanced by a disciplined defensive structure. Necaxa, on the other hand, have struggled for consistency and possess a negative goal difference, suggesting vulnerabilities that Chivas’ high-pressing forwards can exploit.

Examining both teams’ style of play, Chivas Guadalajara have shown a preference for aggressive, possession-based football, reflected in their higher pass accuracy (89% over the last five matches) and a propensity for creating scoring opportunities (63 total shots in five games). However, their assertiveness leads to a moderate foul count and six yellow cards in the same period. Necaxa, while resilient, are less effective in possession (85% pass accuracy) and concede more fouls (40 in their last five), which could invite further pressure from the visitors and disrupt their rhythm. Set pieces and fast transitions may decide the match, with Chivas’ edge in corner kicks (24 to Necaxa’s 12) offering additional routes to goal.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Necaxa vs Chivas Guadalajara Most recent H2Hs

Their recent head-to-head battles have been fiercely contested, with Chivas Guadalajara edging Necaxa in both friendly and competitive fixtures. Across their last three meetings, Chivas have outscored Necaxa, securing two wins (3-2, 3-2) and conceding only one defeat. Historically, these matches are open and high-scoring, with attacking play often taking precedence over defensive caution.

🚨Read our full Necaxa vs Chivas Guadalajara stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Chivas Guadalajara have scored 33 goals in 15 Liga MX Clausura matches, the highest in the league.
• Necaxa have managed just five wins from 15, with a negative goal difference (-3).
• Chivas average 4.2 corner kicks per game twice as many as Necaxa.
• Necaxa have only kept one clean sheet in their last five matches.
• Chivas Guadalajara’s away win rate in 2026 stands at an impressive 71%.

Necaxa vs Chivas Guadalajara score prediction: 1-3

Expect Chivas Guadalajara’s firepower to be decisive. Armando González and Bryan Gonzalez will likely be central to their offensive thrust, with the former’s recent form suggesting he will find the net. Necaxa’s Tomás Badaloni poses a threat but will find chances limited against Chivas’ organized backline led by Gilberto Sepulveda and Jose Castillo. Chivas’ quality in transition and set pieces should see them secure a 3-1 victory.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Chivas Guadalajara the favourite

The bookmakers have installed Chivas Guadalajara as firm favourites, reflecting their superior season form, league standing, and head-to-head dominance. Their attacking efficiency and consistency justify the short odds, while Necaxa’s longer price underlines their underdog status. The Over 2.5 line and Both Teams To Score markets are well-placed, given recent high-scoring meetings and both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities.

Necaxa vs Chivas Guadalajara Over/Under Analysis

• Four of the last five Chivas Guadalajara matches have produced over 2.5 goals.
• Necaxa have conceded at least two goals in three of their last five matches.
• Both teams have scored in four of their last five head-to-head encounters.
• Chivas Guadalajara’s games average 3.3 total goals in 2026.

Necaxa Preview

Necaxa approach this fixture following a mixed run of form. Their recent 1-1 draw against UANL Tigres showcased resilience, but previous results such as the 1-3 home defeat to Queretaro highlight ongoing defensive concerns. The squad’s offensive output remains modest, with Tomás Badaloni emerging as their primary goal threat and Alexis Peña contributing crucially from set pieces. However, the side’s inability to maintain possession and their susceptibility to conceding from quick transitions will be tested against a top-tier opponent like Chivas.

Necaxa possible starting eleven

Chivas Guadalajara Preview

Chivas Guadalajara enter the match brimming with confidence after a dominant 5-0 win over Puebla, despite a rare setback against UANL Tigres. Their blend of youth and experience, marshaled by coach Gabriel Milito, has delivered consistent results 11 wins and only three defeats in 15 games. Armando González’s clinical finishing and Bryan Gonzalez’s creative spark have driven their attack, supported ably by a solid midfield led by Luis Romo. Chivas’ defensive organization, quick transitions, and proficiency at set pieces make them formidable, especially away from home.

Chivas Guadalajara possible starting eleven

The Verdict

As the Tips.GG team of experts, we back Chivas Guadalajara to claim all three points in Aguascalientes. Their attacking depth, tactical discipline, and recent head-to-head superiority make them the logical pick. While Necaxa possess dangerous individuals, Chivas’ collective quality and momentum should prove decisive. According to our dedicated AI prediction engine, Chivas Guadalajara have a 56% chance of victory, with Necaxa at 21% and the draw at 23%.

How to watch Necaxa vs Chivas Guadalajara

• When? April 23, 2026
• Kick-off time: 05:05 CEST
• Where? Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
• How to watch: National TV broadcasters, streaming via Liga MX official platforms, and select betting sites
• Favorite: Chivas Guadalajara

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