Napoli vs Cagliari Prediction: 23.05.2025 Serie A Preview

The penultimate weekend of the Serie A season brings Napoli together with Cagliari at the illustrious Maradona Stadium in Naples. Under the tactical stewardship of Antonio Conte, Napoli have challenged for the Scudetto right to the wire, while Davide Nicola’s Cagliari are battling to finish the season on a high despite a campaign littered with inconsistency. There is more than pride at stake, with Napoli aiming to seal the title and Cagliari keen to upset the established order. An extra layer of intrigue is added by both teams’ penchant for the 3-5-2 formation, setting the stage for a tactical tug-of-war in midfield.

For Napoli, look no further than Giacomo Raspadori, who’s chipped in with two crucial goals from the front and continues to exude confidence, and Scott McTominay, whose physicality and eye for a timely run (two goals, two assists in five) could trouble the resolutely defensive Cagliari setup. Meanwhile, for Cagliari, Roberto Piccoli is a threat up front, having scored twice and provided two decisive assists in recent outings, and Alessandro Deiola provides vital midfield balance and forward thrust.

The hot stat? Cagliari have actually matched Napoli for attacking output in their last five matches, scoring eight to Napoli’s five, a reflection of their odd mix of defensive frailty and attacking opportunism.

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Napoli vs Cagliari prediction

With the stakes sky high and momentum on the league table, Napoli appear overwhelming favourites on paper—and for good reason. Conte’s side have averaged 60 percent winrate over their last five, remain unbeaten in that stretch, and boast a miserly defence (just four losses all season). Their trademark patient build-up and high pass completion (87 percent in the last five) allow them to control tempo, dictate space, and sap the resolve of sides lower in the Serie A pecking order.

On the other hand, Cagliari’s form has been patchy: two wins and three losses from their last five, with a relatively porous backline (eight goals conceded in last five, despite the same amount scored). Yellow cards and fouls are a blight; their total of eight yellows and 51 fouls in that span shows a tendency toward overexuberance—something Napoli’s technicians in the middle can undoubtedly exploit.

Though Cagliari can certainly trouble even elite sides when allowed to play in transition, Napoli’s balance and midfield press, especially with physicality from McTominay and Lobotka’s metronomic passes, should stymie most counterattacks. The hosts’ defensive discipline—allowing just two goals across the last three matches—contrasts with Cagliari’s fragility under sustained pressure. We expect Napoli’s controlled style to draw Cagliari into a game they do not enjoy, combining a string of passes to open channels for players like Raspadori and Lukaku. Set pieces may be pivotal, given the number of fouls Cagliari concede.

Team Analysis

Napoli – Recent Games Review
Napoli’s recent record is remarkably stable: undefeated in the last five (three draws, two wins), including a resolute 0-0 against Parma and a controlled win over Torino (2-0). Defensive solidity is the theme: just two goals conceded in the last four games, with goalkeeper Alex Meret relying on a consistent back three (Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Olivera). The midfield rotates well, but it’s the dynamic movement from wide areas and the ability of players like Politano and Raspadori to operate between lines that keeps opponents on their heels. Still, their relative profligacy in attack, with just five goals in five, does suggest that breaking down stubborn defences can still be an issue if the early goal does not materialise.

Cagliari – Recent Games Review
Cagliari ride into Naples after a morale-boosting 3-0 thumping of Venezia but are dogged by inconsistency: three defeats in their prior four, punctuated by worrying defensive errors. When flowing, their build-up can be incisive—witness Roberto Piccoli’s all-action displays and Nadir Zortea’s ability to drive through midfield. However, their problem remains a porous defence and indiscipline (51 fouls, eight yellows in last five). A willingness to push numbers forward often leaves space for stronger sides to exploit.

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🚨Read our full Napoli vs Cagliari stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Napoli the favourite

• Moneyline Napoli 1.14 | Cagliari 18.00
• Draw 8.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.66 | Under 2.5 2.24
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.06 | No 1.78

Bookmakers unanimously peg Napoli as overwhelming favourites here—an expected outcome given their commanding form, vastly superior squad, and home advantage. The long odds on a Cagliari win or the draw highlight their recent defensive woes and weak away record against top-six opposition. The value lies in handicap options, especially given Napoli’s knack for controlling matches early and shutting out sides like Cagliari, and the “no” for BTTS reflects the hosts’ defensive solidity at the Maradona.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Napoli possible starting eleven

Conte will likely persist with his favoured 3-5-2—prizing both balance and transition security. Di Lorenzo and Spinazzola provide width while Anguissa and Gilmour cover both sides of the anchor man, Lobotka. McTominay—whose recent stats (two goals, two assists in last five) speak volumes—offers physical dynamism and late box entries. Raspadori and Lukaku up front blend movement with clinical finishing, giving Napoli multiple routes to goal. Spinazzola and Lobotka are pivotal for controlling play.

Cagliari possible starting eleven

Nicola has leaned into his own 3-5-2 system to combat stronger teams, hoping to congest midfield areas while allowing Piccoli to feed off scraps up top—his movement and finishing are crucial here. Zortea is vital for transitions and energy, while Rakvan Marin and Deiola will focus on disrupting Napoli’s passing lanes. Caprile’s performances in goal will be key if Cagliari are to hold out. The full-backs’ ability to support both attack and defence may be the difference between containment and collapse.

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My take on the Match

Everything points toward a dominant display from Napoli: the superior form, tactical control, and attacking depth, especially with so much on the line. Expect the hosts to exert pressure early, drawing fouls and set-piece opportunities from an overcommitted Cagliari. Though Napoli’s goals tally is modest of late, the creative burden has been shared, and there’s enough variety to break down even a deep defence. Cagliari’s best hope is to nick something on the counter via Piccoli or Deiola, but in truth, the difference in class ought to tell by the final whistle. Our tip: Napoli to win comfortably, clean sheet in tow, keeping their title destiny firmly in their own hands.

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