Liam Duckstein
Napoli face Bologna at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in a late-season Serie A encounter that will shape the final European spots. With Napoli under Antonio Conte sitting second and Bologna under Vincenzo Italiano in mid-table, both sides approach this match with clear objectives—Napoli aiming to secure Champions League football, Bologna still fighting for a top-half finish. One intriguing angle: both teams arrive after 0-0 draws, raising the stakes for an attacking response. Kevin De Bruyne has brought top-level composure and creativity to Napoli’s midfield, while Riccardo Orsolini’s directness remains Bologna’s main spark in the final third.
Hot stat: Napoli have produced 65 total shots in their last five games, showing significant attacking intent despite recent draws.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Napoli vs Bologna prediction
We predict Napoli will secure a home win. Conte’s side have looked steadier at the back and boast a more potent frontline compared to Bologna’s recent struggles in attack. Napoli’s midfield, with De Bruyne dictating play and McTominay adding drive, holds a clear edge. Defensively, Napoli concede fewer clear chances, while Bologna’s high foul and yellow card counts often leave them exposed. The home side should benefit from more ball retention (higher pass accuracy at 90.1% versus Bologna’s 84%) and the ability to control the game’s tempo. Bologna’s physical style—60 fouls in their last five, three yellow cards per game—can disrupt rhythm but also risks set-piece danger, where Napoli have shown efficiency.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Napoli to win and under 3.5 total goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Napoli’s last five results show mixed efficiency: a 0-0 against Como, a resounding 4-0 win over Cremonese, a 0-2 loss to Lazio, a 1-1 with Parma, and a tight 1-0 win over Milan. In the Como match, Napoli’s finishing deserted them despite a high shot count. The midfield controlled possession, but the attack struggled to break through a deep defense. McTominay’s box presence and De Bruyne’s passing remain bright spots. The clean sheet also highlights recent defensive discipline.
Bologna recently held Cagliari to a 0-0, preceded by a 0-2 loss to Roma, 0-2 to Juventus, a heavy 0-4 defeat against Aston Villa, and a 2-0 win over Lecce. Bologna’s attack has dried up—just two goals in their last five. Ravaglia has had to make more saves as defensive mistakes crept in, and midfield creativity has not compensated. Orsolini, though, still finds ways to unsettle defenses and is their main hope for a breakthrough.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
| Total shots | 17 | 12 |
| Free kicks | 10 | 11 |
| Corner kicks | 8 | 7 |
| Total fouls | 14 | 21 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 90.1 | 84.0 |
| Interceptions | 18 | 39 |
| Offsides | 7 | 10 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Napoli vs Bologna stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Napoli the favourite
- Moneyline Napoli 1.58 | Bologna 6.50
- Draw 4.41
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 2.10
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.80
Bookmakers overwhelmingly back Napoli to win, reflected in both the low home odds and the implied 61% win probability. Bologna, at more than 6.00, receive little market faith. The draw price is notably long, echoing Bologna’s issues in turning tight games into points. Over/under markets show expectations for a tight, lower-scoring contest—mirroring both teams’ recent goal droughts. We see value in the home win and “under 3.5” total goals, as Napoli’s control and Bologna’s blunt attack should keep the score down. Both Teams To Score leans “No”—Napoli’s defense is reliable, Bologna’s attack is currently limp.
Bologna. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Napoli possible starting eleven
- GK: Vanja Milinković-Savić
- DF: Alessandro Buongiorno, Sam Beukema, Mathias Olivera, Leonardo Spinazzola
- MF: Scott McTominay, Stanislav Lobotka, Kevin De Bruyne, Frank Anguissa
- FW: Matteo Politano, Rasmus Hojlund
Napoli stick to the 4-2-3-1 that has worked under Conte, with Milinković-Savić in goal after consistent appearances. Buongiorno leads the defense, flanked by Beukema and the energetic fullbacks Olivera and Spinazzola. Lobotka and Anguissa offer balance, with De Bruyne operating further forward to pull the strings. McTominay drives from deep and supports Hojlund, who leads the line. Politano’s movement from the right should trouble Bologna’s wingbacks.
Bologna possible starting eleven
- GK: Federico Ravaglia
- DF: Jhon Lucumi, Juan Miranda, Martin Vitik
- MF: Nikola Moro, Remo Freuler, Lewis Ferguson, Nadir Zortea
- FW: Riccardo Orsolini, Santiago Thomas Castro, Jonathan Rowe
Bologna will likely use the 3-4-2-1 that Italiano prefers. Ravaglia keeps his spot in goal. Lucumi anchors the back three with Miranda and Vitik. The midfield four has energy but often sacrifices possession for pressing—Moro and Freuler battle in the center, Zortea and Ferguson operate wide. Orsolini and Rowe support Castro up front, though recent scoring issues persist. Orsolini remains Bologna’s best route to a goal, either from open play or set pieces.
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Napoli. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Napoli will win this match, controlling the tempo through midfield dominance and exploiting Bologna’s defensive frailties. De Bruyne’s vision and McTominay’s movement create chances that Hojlund and Politano can convert. Bologna’s physical approach may keep things close for a while, but their lack of attacking threat and high foul count should give Napoli the edge. Expect a disciplined performance from Conte’s men and a clean sheet.
