Sofia Quijada
Mushuc Runa host Gualaceo SC at the Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos in Azogues in the Copa Ecuador 2026 Round of 32. Mushuc Runa have not won in their last five matches, collecting just two draws against that run, while Gualaceo SC arrive on the back of a narrow 1-0 win over Vargas Torres. Despite the home side’s poor recent form, they carry a significantly higher club ranking and greater squad depth than their visitors. One player to watch is Ronie Carrillo, Mushuc Runa’s most productive attacker with two goals in the last five matches and consistent shot volume. For Gualaceo SC, Rodrigo Formento in goal will be tested early, having made 11 saves across five recent appearances.
Hot stat: Mushuc Runa have conceded in four of their last five matches, including two defeats by three goals each against Leones del Norte and LDU Quito, pointing to a backline that struggles against direct opponents.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Ecuador 2026, Round of 32 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos, Azogues, Ecuador |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:30 CEST |
Mushuc Runa vs Gualaceo SC Prediction
Mushuc Runa’s winless run of five games is a concern, but the level of opposition they faced, including LDU Quito and Sociedad Deportiva Aucas, is considerably higher than Gualaceo SC. Gualaceo’s recent form shows just one win in five, with three draws and a loss to Atletico Futbol Club. Neither side enters this tie with real momentum, but Mushuc Runa’s home advantage and deeper squad make them the more likely side to edge through.
Mushuc Runa operate in a 4-4-2 that generates a reasonable shot volume, 74 total shots across five games, but their conversion rate is poor with only four goals scored. They commit 59 fouls across five matches and have picked up 12 yellow cards, suggesting a physical approach that could draw free kicks in dangerous areas. Gualaceo SC’s 4-1-4-1 tends to absorb pressure and hit on the counter, which could suit them if Mushuc Runa push forward without care. With no bookmaker odds available, we predict a low-scoring, tight match where set pieces and individual errors decide the outcome.
- We predict Mushuc Runa to win or draw, leaning toward a narrow Mushuc Runa victory given home advantage.
- The match is likely to stay under 2.5 goals given both teams’ recent low-scoring outputs.
- Both teams to score is possible but not likely, as Gualaceo SC scored in only two of their last five matches.
- Corners should be modest given Gualaceo’s defensive setup and Mushuc Runa’s inconsistency in the final third.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Mushuc Runa to win to nil |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Mushuc Runa have gone winless across their last five competitive matches under Paúl Vélez, with draws against Sociedad Deportiva Aucas (0-0) and Guayaquil City (2-2) sandwiched around three defeats. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 stalemate with Aucas, a respectable result against a top-ranked opponent. Before that, they conceded three goals twice, against LDU Quito and Leones del Norte, exposing a defensive unit that struggles to contain quality attacks. Carrillo’s two goals represent their best individual output, with Alex Ibarra also contributing with 12 shots across five games but no end product. The 12 yellow cards and 59 fouls indicate a side that defends aggressively but lacks the discipline to stay clean.
Gualaceo SC under Javier Borja have shown a pattern of grinding results rather than dominant performances. Their most recent match was a 1-0 win over Vargas Torres, their only win in five. Before that, they lost 1-2 to Atletico Futbol Club, drew 1-1 with San Antonio and Independiente Juniors, and played out a goalless draw with 22 de Julio. The 1-0 result against Vargas Torres shows they can see out tight games, but their overall output of just four goals in five matches confirms a limited attacking threat. Formento’s 11 saves across those five games suggest he has been heavily tested, which may be a concern against a Mushuc Runa side that generates 74 shots per five games despite their poor conversion.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
No head-to-head data is available between Mushuc Runa and Gualaceo SC from the provided records. The table below reflects each team’s individual recent match statistics across their last five games.
| Statistic | Mushuc Runa | Gualaceo SC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | N/A |
| Total Shots | 74 | N/A |
| Free Kicks | 5 | N/A |
| Corner Kicks | 26 | N/A |
| Total Fouls | 59 | N/A |
| Pass Accuracy (%) | 1373 / 1720 (79.8%) | N/A |
| Interceptions | 33 | N/A |
| Offsides | 7 | N/A |
🚨 Check out our dedicated Mushuc Runa vs Gualaceo SC stats page for more info.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Mushuc Runa the Favourite
- Moneyline Mushuc Runa N/A | Gualaceo SC N/A
- Draw N/A
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
No bookmaker odds have been made available for this fixture. Based on ranking and recent form, Mushuc Runa are the logical favourite. Their world club ranking of 498 compared to Gualaceo’s 1299 is a significant gap, and while neither team is in strong form, Mushuc Runa have faced far tougher opposition in their recent run. We expect the market to reflect Mushuc Runa as clear favourites once odds are released, with under 2.5 goals likely priced attractively given both teams’ scoring records.
Gualaceo SC. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Mushuc Runa Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Rodrigo Formento
- DF: Kevin Peralta, Franklin Carabali, Brian Negro, Cristopher Angulo
- MF: Lucas Maximiliano Lemos Mayuncaldi, Adrian Cela, Arnaldo Zambrano, Alex Ibarra
- FW: Ronie Carrillo, Carlos Orejuela
Mushuc Runa are expected to line up in their preferred 4-4-2 under Paúl Vélez. Formento is the clear starter in goal with 11 saves across five matches. The back four picks itself, with Peralta and Carabali offering consistent defensive output. In midfield, Ibarra is the most active shot-creator with 12 attempts across five games, making him the key link between defense and attack. Carrillo leads the line as Mushuc Runa’s top scorer and draws fouls regularly, with four committed against him in recent games. Orejuela provides work rate and directness as his strike partner. Facundo Castelli and Freddy Mina offer options from the bench if the game opens up.
Gualaceo SC Possible Starting Eleven
Gualaceo SC’s detailed lineup data was not provided in the available statistics. Javier Borja has consistently used a 4-1-4-1 shape across recent matches, a formation built to protect the defensive line and deploy a single pivot in front of the back four. Wilman Pabón is confirmed as the goalkeeper based on available roster data. Borja is likely to prioritise compactness and look to exploit transitions against a Mushuc Runa side that leaves space on the counter. The 4-1-4-1 could frustrate the hosts if the defensive block holds, but Gualaceo’s limited attacking output suggests they will need a set piece or moment of individual quality to score.
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Mushuc Runa. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Mushuc Runa enter this Copa Ecuador Round of 32 tie as the stronger side on paper, despite their poor recent run. Their five-game winless streak came against quality LigaPro opposition, while Gualaceo SC’s results came against far lower-ranked clubs. Mushuc Runa generate the volume of shots, 74 across five matches, to create enough chances at home, and Carrillo’s two goals show there is a finisher capable of converting. Gualaceo SC’s defensive solidity is real, but their attacking output of just four goals in five games, all against opposition ranked below 4000, raises doubts about their ability to score here.
We predict a narrow Mushuc Runa win, likely 1-0, with the match staying under 2.5 goals. Gualaceo SC’s 4-1-4-1 will make it difficult, but the home side’s greater quality and familiar surroundings at the Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos should be enough to see them through to the next round. To be honest, neither side inspires great confidence, but the gap in squad quality is too wide to ignore.
