Alex MacQuoid
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Fir Park hosts a fixture that, on paper, looks like a formality. Celtic sit top of the table with 18 points from seven games, while Motherwell are stuck in ninth with just eight. Dig a little deeper though and there’s a wrinkle worth flagging: Celtic have actually lost three matches in a row across competitions coming into this one, something the bare league table doesn’t show at all. Martin O’Neill’s side are still the heavy favourites here, but they haven’t arrived at Fir Park in anything like free-flowing form.
Keep an eye on Alex Lowry for Motherwell. He’s the one player in this squad with a goal to his name from the sample games and he’s been the main shot-taker in a side that has badly struggled for cutting edge lately. On the Celtic side, Mika Baur has chipped in with a goal and carries most of the creative burden through midfield right now, with Camilo Duran also a threat from set pieces given his free kick numbers.
Hot stat: Motherwell have scored just one goal in their last three matches while conceding seven, arguably the worst attacking return of any side in the league over that stretch. Meanwhile Celtic, despite topping the table, have lost three straight matches heading into this trip, something punters backing them blind should at least note.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Scottish Premiership 2026/2027 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Fir Park, Motherwell |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 13:00 CEST |
Motherwell vs Celtic prediction
We think Celtic win this, but not comfortably, and honestly the three-losses-on-the-bounce wrinkle makes us wary of going all in on a big-margin cover. Motherwell have shown flashes this season, that 3-0 over Dundee United and the 3-3 scrap with Saint Mirren prove there’s goals in this side when things click, but three defeats on the spin including a 0-4 at home to Aberdeen tell a different story going into this weekend. Our lean is Celtic to win, somewhere in the 2-1 to 3-1 range, with Motherwell at least troubling them enough to get on the scoresheet given how open Celtic have looked defensively in their recent run.
Style-wise this should be a mismatch in territory and possession. Celtic’s pass accuracy over their last five sits around 83%, Motherwell’s is actually marginally higher at roughly 88%, which is a bit of a surprise given the table positions and suggests Motherwell aren’t just hoofing it long out of fear. Celtic commit far more fouls though, 49 across their last five compared to Motherwell’s 16, and they’ve picked up more cards too. That physical edge, combined with a high press, usually means a few stoppages and a flurry of free kicks and corners, Celtic have won 22 corners in their last five matches to Motherwell’s 14, which points towards a corner-heavy afternoon at Fir Park.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Celtic -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Motherwell’s recent form is grim reading for anyone backing them this weekend. One win, one draw and five defeats in their last seven, a 14% win rate over the last month, that’s relegation-form stuff rather than mid-table resilience. The most recent outing was a 1-2 home defeat to Dundee, continuing a run where they’ve now lost three straight in the league, scoring just once in that span. Before that it was 0-4 against Aberdeen and 0-1 at Ibrox against Rangers. There was life in this squad not too long ago, the 3-0 win over Dundee United and a 3-3 thriller with Saint Mirren show the attacking pieces exist, but confidence looks shot right now and Alfred Johansson needs a response fast.
Celtic’s league form tells one story, 6 wins from 7 and a +10 goal difference, but their last three matches across all competitions have all ended in defeat, which is the real story heading into Fir Park. The most recent was a 0-1 loss to Rangers, following a 1-3 reverse against Ferencvaros in Europe and another 0-3 defeat to Rangers before that. In our preview of Celtic vs Rangers we called a tight home win for Celtic, something around 2-1 with goals at both ends, and the 0-1 result that actually played out went against us. Celtic still carry serious quality and the squad depth to shrug off a rough patch against a struggling Motherwell, but this run can’t just be ignored when weighing up the market price.
🚨Check out our dedicated Motherwell vs Celtic stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Celtic the favourite
- Moneyline Motherwell 4.75 | Celtic 1.53
- Draw 4.50
The market gives Celtic roughly a 59% chance of victory and that lines up with what their squad quality says on paper. We think the odds on Motherwell are a touch generous given how badly the hosts have been playing but there’s genuine value nowhere near the home win market, maybe in the goals markets instead. A draw at 4.50 looks a bit short honestly, Celtic’s recent defensive wobbles combined with Motherwell’s home comforts could easily produce a scrappy stalemate, though we’re still leaning towards Celtic doing enough up front to avoid that outcome.
Possible Starting Lineups
Motherwell possible starting eleven
- GK: Alex Paulsen
- DF: Martin Moormann, Emmanuel Longelo, Stephen O’Donnell
- MF: Tom Sparrow, Lukas Fadinger, Joe Hodge, Jake Max Girdwood-Reich
- FW: Alex Lowry, Regan Charles-Cook, Ibrahim Said
Johansson’s preferred 3-4-2-1 shape leans on Lowry and Charles-Cook operating just behind Said up top, with the back three and double pivot of Fadinger and Girdwood-Reich trying to control midfield tempo. Lowry is the one to watch, he’s carried most of the attacking threat in recent weeks, though the whole unit badly needs a result to lift the mood around Fir Park.
Celtic possible starting eleven
- GK: Viljami Sinisalo
- DF: Cameron Carter-Vickers, Liam Scales, Auston Trusty, Kieran Tierney
- MF: Callum McGregor, Luke McCowan, Mika Baur, Benjamin Nygren, James Forrest
- FW: Kasper Hogh
O’Neill’s 4-2-3-1 gives McGregor and McCowan the job of shielding a back four that’s leaked goals in the recent cup and European defeats. Baur and Nygren are the ones to watch in the attacking band, both carry goal threat and set-piece responsibility, while Hogh leads the line as the focal point up top. We’d expect some rotation given the midweek fixtures Celtic have been juggling, but this is roughly the strongest available group.
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Celtic. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our call is Celtic to win this one, probably by a two-goal margin, but we’re not expecting it to be straightforward. Motherwell’s home form has been dreadful and the scoring drought is real, but Celtic’s three-match losing run across competitions, including back to back defeats against Rangers and a European reverse, means confidence in the away dressing room isn’t where you’d expect for league leaders. We’d lean Celtic win and over 2.5 goals, with both teams finding the net given how porous Celtic’s defence has looked lately and how desperate Motherwell will be to get something going in front of their own fans.
