Sofia Quijada
Moquegua faces Universitario de Deportes at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in a Liga 1 Apertura matchup with clear stakes for both sides. Universitario arrives as the favorite based on recent form and higher league standing, while Moquegua seeks to exploit home advantage to halt their inconsistent spell. Edison Flores (Universitario) and Jeferson Collazos (Moquegua) stand out as key offensive threats, each contributing vital goals in the last stretch. Moquegua’s pressing need for points meets Universitario’s hunt to stay close to the top.
A hot stat: Universitario has produced 59 total shots in their last five matches, indicating a clear attacking intent despite some blunt finishing.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga 1 2026 Apertura, Peru |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:45 CEST |
Moquegua vs Universitario de Deportes prediction
We predict Universitario de Deportes to win. Their superior win rate (43% this year vs Moquegua’s 31%), higher number of goals scored (22 vs 17), and much better global ranking signal clear quality. Universitario’s attacking trio, led by Flores and supported by Valera, offers more consistency and threat compared to Moquegua’s scattered finishing. Moquegua’s home results are erratic—just 1 win in their last 5. Universitario’s recent away record is not stellar, but their overall squad depth and tactical structure under Héctor Cúper outweigh Moquegua’s home advantage.
Both teams play with intensity, reflected in a high number of fouls and yellow cards: Moquegua averages 9.4 fouls and 1.4 yellows per game over the last five, while Universitario has racked up 11.2 fouls and 2 yellows per match. Universitario’s ball retention is superior (1330 successful passes at 75% accuracy), so expect them to control possession. Moquegua’s passing is less reliable (765 at 70%), often resulting in lost balls and quick turnovers. This should tilt the tempo and chance creation towards Universitario, increasing their edge.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Universitario to win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Moquegua’s recent run shows defensive fragility and inconsistent scoring. In their latest match, they fell 0-1 to Los Chankas, unable to break down a robust defense and looking shaky when pressured. Their last five matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, conceding 8 and scoring only 5. The 2-2 home draw vs Tarma exposed gaps at the back and limited midfield control. Collazos and Lastre have offered attacking sparks but need more support from the midfield.
Universitario, meanwhile, displays a mixed bag—2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in their last five, including a goalless draw vs Club Nacional. Their attack fires off plenty of shots but sometimes lacks clinical finishing, as seen in the 0-1 home loss to Atletico Grau. Flores remains central to their attack, while Di Benedetto shores up the defense. They distribute the ball well and create more chances, but must avoid lapses in concentration at the back.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Moquegua | Universitario de Deportes |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 5 |
| Total shots | 49 | 59 |
| Free kicks | 6 | 2 |
| Corner kicks | 15 | 27 |
| Total fouls | 47 | 56 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 70 | 75 |
| Interceptions | 36 | 43 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Moquegua vs Universitario de Deportes stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Universitario de Deportes the favourite
- Moneyline Moquegua 3.75 | Universitario de Deportes 1.91
- Draw 3.35
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.15 | Under 2.5 1.65
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.98 | No 1.70
Bookmakers give Universitario the edge, reflecting their squad quality, better season form, and away threat. The odds for Over 2.5 goals offer value given both teams’ defensive issues and open playing styles. BTTS is well-priced, as Moquegua usually finds a goal at home, but rarely keeps a clean sheet. Draw odds sit at 3.35, implying little trust in Moquegua’s ability to stifle the visitors.
Possible Starting Lineups
Moquegua possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Grados
- DF: Aldair Perleche, Juan Diego Lojas, Nicolas Amasifuen, José Luis Granda
- MF: Cristian Mejía, Edgar Lastre, Nicolas Chavez, Claudio Ramírez, Roger Torres
- FW: Jeferson Collazos
Moquegua will likely field their preferred 4-2-3-1, with Grados in goal. Perleche and Amasifuen provide defensive width, while Mejía anchors the midfield. Lastre’s creativity will be crucial. Collazos remains the focal point up front and will need service to exploit any Universitario lapses. Expect a compact midfield, with the fullbacks occasionally pushing forward.
Universitario de Deportes possible starting eleven
- GK: Miguel Vargas
- DF: Aldo Corzo, Matías Di Benedetto, William Riveros, José Carabali
- MF: Jairo Concha, Martin Perez Guedes, Jorge Murrugarra, Anderson Santamaría
- FW: Edison Flores, Alex Valera
Universitario should line up 3-5-2, maximizing midfield numbers and attacking width. Vargas is first-choice keeper. The back three provides balance and experience, with Corzo and Carabali supporting in wide roles. Flores and Valera up top can exploit space behind Moquegua’s backline, while Concha dictates the tempo. Watch for Flores’ runs and Di Benedetto’s aerial strength on set pieces.
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Universitario de Deportes. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Universitario de Deportes brings more firepower, discipline in possession, and a structured game plan. We predict a 2-1 or 3-1 away win, with both teams likely to score. Moquegua will push for an upset but lacks the defensive stability to contain Universitario’s creative attackers. Flores’ form and Universitario’s set-piece threat tip the balance. Over 2.5 goals looks strong, as does BTTS.
