Liam Duckstein
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Monza sit bottom of Serie A with a single point from four games, and Ivan Juric has yet to find a fix for a defence that has already shipped 11 goals. Sassuolo arrive in far better shape, sitting ninth after a wild 3-2 win over Juventus last time out.
The interesting angle here is goals. Both sides have been involved in high-scoring, chaotic matches this season, and neither coach looks close to sorting out their back line. That points to an open contest at Stadio Brianteo, perhaps more open than the bookmakers’ modest 42% favourite tag for Sassuolo suggests.
Domenico Berardi remains Sassuolo’s most dangerous outlet on the right, capable of unlocking a Monza defence that has struggled all season. On the other side, Gustavo Varela has started scoring goals in bursts for Monza and could cause problems if given space in behind.
Hot stat: Sassuolo’s last away trip finished 5-4 against Frosinone, nine goals in a single match, more than Monza have managed across their last four league fixtures combined. That single game says plenty about how loose Sassuolo’s defence can be even when they win.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Brianteo, Monza |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Monza vs Sassuolo prediction
We predict Sassuolo to win this one, but not comfortably. Monza have conceded in every one of their last five outings and Sassuolo have found the net in four of their last five too, so backing the away win alongside both teams to score looks like the sharper combination rather than a plain moneyline bet.
Monza’s discipline has been a genuine issue, 65 fouls across their last five matches compared to Sassuolo’s 50, and their pass accuracy sits noticeably lower as well. Sassuolo control the ball better and commit fewer cards, which usually translates into more sustained pressure over 90 minutes. That gap in game management is a big reason we lean toward the visitors here, even away from home.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sassuolo win & Over 2.5 goals (combo) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Monza’s last match ended 2-3 against Lecce, continuing a pattern of conceding first and chasing games. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Parma, a 1-0 win over Torino, a 2-3 loss to Udinese and a 1-4 hammering by Inter. Two wins, one draw and three losses in their last six overall tells the story of a side that has flashes of quality but cannot hold a lead. In our preview of Lecce vs Monza we called a tight home win for Lecce with goals at both ends, and the 3-2 result delivered on that read even if the exact scoreline landed a touch higher than we expected.
Sassuolo head into this one on the back of a thrilling 3-2 win over Juventus, a match where they trailed before storming back. That followed a 2-2 draw with Bologna, a mad 5-4 win over Frosinone, a 2-1 win at Torino and a 1-2 loss to Atalanta. Four wins and a draw across their last six games, with goals flying in at both ends nearly every time, backs up the idea that this Sassuolo side scores freely but never quite shuts up shop. In our preview of Sassuolo vs Juventus we called a Juventus win with goals at both ends, and the 3-2 scoreline actually went the other way as Sassuolo turned the game around themselves.
🚨Check out our dedicated Monza vs Sassuolo stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sassuolo the favourite
- Moneyline Monza 3.03 | Sassuolo 2.32
- Draw 3.44
The market splits this roughly 32-27-42 in Sassuolo’s favour, and honestly that lines up with what the recent form suggests. Monza’s defensive numbers are poor enough that even a mid-table Sassuolo side looks like fair value at odds around 2.30, while the draw price feels a bit generous given how rarely either side has settled for a stalemate lately.
Possible Starting Lineups
Monza possible starting eleven
- GK: Demba Thiam
- DF: Andrea Carboni, Samuele Birindelli, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Eddy Kouadio
- MF: Andrea Colpani, Michael Folorunsho, Foe Ondoa
- FW: Dany Mota, Jay Robinson, Omari Forson
Juric has stuck with a 4-3-3 shape across the last five games, and the back four picked here has logged the most minutes together. Colpani remains the creative fulcrum in midfield, and Dany Mota’s movement up front gives Monza their best chance of causing problems in behind a shaky Sassuolo backline.
Sassuolo possible starting eleven
- GK: Arijanet Murić
- DF: Cas Odenthal, Simone Cinquegrano, Fedde Leysen
- MF: Josh Doig, Jay Idzes, Nemanja Matić, Kristian Thorstvedt, Vasilije Adzic
- FW: Domenico Berardi, Kieron Bowie
Aquilani’s 3-4-2-1 relies on Doig and Idzes bombing forward from wing-back, while Matić anchors things in the middle. Adzic has been directly involved in three goals across his last five outings and, alongside Berardi, gives Sassuolo the sharpest attacking pair on the pitch this weekend.
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Sassuolo. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Sassuolo should have enough to win this game, but Monza’s home form isn’t so poor that they will simply roll over. Both sides have shown they can concede at will this season, and given Sassuolo’s tendency to trade goals rather than defend leads, we predict a 2-1 or 3-2 win for the visitors with both teams finding the net. Perhaps the safer route for punters is combining Sassuolo’s win with over 2.5 total goals, a market that has covered nearly every recent match involving either club.
