Monza vs Modena Prediction: 24.04.2026 Serie B Preview

Serie B is reaching its critical stages, and on 24 April 2026, Stadio Brianteo in Monza will host a matchup that promises more than just points on the table. With Monza eyeing a return to Serie A and Modena fighting to solidify their playoff credentials, this fixture is much more than a routine league clash. Both teams come into this game with distinct styles and ambitions, and while Monza’s home fortress has been a stronghold this season, Modena’s unpredictability can throw up surprises. Will Monza’s tactical discipline prevail, or can Modena pull off an upset on enemy territory?

Among the names to watch, Matteo Pessina for Monza stands out, having netted twice in his last three games and orchestrating play from midfield with precision and flair. On Modena’s side, Simone Santoro has been pivotal, offering dynamism in the centre of the park, scoring recently and providing much-needed bite to Modena’s attack. Their performances could well dictate the tempo of this contest.

One “hot stat” that leaps out: Monza have not lost in their last 10 matches, underlining their consistency at a crucial period in the campaign.

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Monza vs Modena prediction

Given Monza’s sparkling home form, their unbeaten run, and a 59% winrate this year, the best value lies in backing the hosts. Modena, while dogged and capable of frustrating opponents, have only one win in their last five and have struggled for consistency on the road. The prediction leans towards Monza securing a hard-fought win, with their robust defence and clinical attack likely to be the difference.

Expect a tactical battle: Monza have averaged only 0.8 yellow cards per game in their last five, demonstrating controlled aggression, while Modena’s 1.6 yellows per game hint at a slightly more combative approach. Both sides are tidy in possession, with Monza’s 83% pass accuracy just shading Modena’s 80%. Modena edge the total shots and corners, a nod to their attacking intent but also an indicator of shots from distance rather than high-percentage areas. This all points towards Monza’s compactness and efficiency trumping Modena’s more frantic style, though a goal for the visitors is well within reach.

Team Analysis

Monza come into this clash on the back of a dominant 3-0 win over Sampdoria. Their form in the last five is outstanding: three wins and two draws, including holding league leaders Venezia to a 1-1 draw. Their defensive solidity is matched by attacking efficiency, having conceded just two goals in the last five while netting six themselves. Pessina’s influence, combined with a rotating but reliable back line, allows Monza to control games, suffocate opposition attacks, and strike decisively—qualities that have kept them in the promotion hunt.

Modena, on the other hand, are coming off a narrow 1-2 defeat to Frosinone. Their last five reads win, two draws, and two losses—a mixed bag reflecting their patchy form. They have found goals a little harder to come by, only managing five in this span, and have shown vulnerability at the back, shipping eight yellow cards and conceding more corners than they win. Their ability to transition from defence to attack, however, is aided by Santoro and Beyuku’s energy in midfield, and their recent draws against higher-ranked sides offer hope for a competitive showing.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Monza vs Modena stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Monza the favourite

• Moneyline Monza 1.73-1.79 | Modena 4.20-4.75
• Draw 3.41-3.77
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.85

Monza are clear favourites with odds reflecting their home dominance and better form. The narrow gap in draw odds suggests a possibility of a cagey affair, while the high price for Modena reflects their inconsistent form and underdog status. The under 2.5 goals line speaks to both teams’ solid defensive records of late, while BTTS odds are finely balanced—bookmakers are cautious, perhaps anticipating Modena’s struggles to breach a disciplined Monza backline.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Monza possible starting eleven

• GK: Demba Thiam
• DF: Luca Ravanelli, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Filippo Delli Carri
• MF: Matteo Pessina, Andrea Colpani, Hernani, Pedro Obiang
• FW: Andrea Petagna, Patrick Cutrone, Giuseppe Caso

This lineup balances Monza’s defensive reliability with creative spark in midfield. Pessina and Colpani offer technical excellence and control, while Petagna and Cutrone lead the line with potency. The 3-4-2-1 formation gives them width and solidity. Ravanelli’s experience at the back and Thiam’s command in goal further solidify their shape. Watch out for Pessina’s late runs and Caso’s directness down the flanks.

Modena possible starting eleven

• GK: Michele Pezzolato
• DF: Bryant Nieling, Daniel Tonoli, Alessandro Dellavalle
• MF: Fabio Gerli, Simone Santoro, Yanis Massolin, Gady Beyuku, Matteo Cotali
• FW: Pedro Mendes, Giuseppe Ambrosino

Modena are likely to stick with their tried-and-tested 3-5-2, prioritising midfield density and overlapping full-backs. Santoro anchors the midfield with drive, while Beyuku and Cotali provide width. Ambrosino and Mendes form a pacy partnership up top, hoping to capitalise on counter-attacks. Nieling is a rock at the back and Pezzolato’s distribution from goal will be key to launching attacks.

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My take on the Match

From every angle, this is a fixture with plenty at stake! Monza, buoyed by their outstanding run and tactical clarity under Paolo Bianco, look primed to take another step towards Serie A. Modena, for all their industry and flashes of brilliance, might lack the consistency to outlast Monza over ninety minutes. I expect Monza to press early, control possession, and ultimately grind out a 2-0 victory—Pessina likely to be involved in at least one of the goals. For those who fancy a punt, Monza -1 Asian Handicap and under 2.5 goals offer the best value, with a clean sheet for the hosts also a tempting side bet.

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